Fantasy Hockey- Dobber’s Stock Market Tips
By Darryl Dobbs
The title says it all. So without further ado…
Sell High
Zach Parise, New Jersey – Before I get all the angry emails, let me preface this by saying that Parise is a great player who is only scratching the surface of his talent. He will regularly fall in that 85- to 95-point range year in and year out. He is in his fourth NHL season so this breakout is expected. However, he is currently on pace for 101 points. If you expect him to flirt with 95 points this season, you are mistaken. He’ll do that in his prime – which is in about three or four years. Look for 85 points – he tends to slow down in the second half given the workload in the NHL versus college. That means 40 points in 45 games, give or take.
Simon Gagne, Philadelphia – If you were smart, you would have traded him two or three weeks ago. Now that he is injured (shoulder) it has driven home a bit of reality on fantasy owners. His concussion problems will always be an issue and while Gagne’s owner was enjoying his resurgence, he or she was also ignoring the white elephant in the room. Gagne is fragile and could be one big hit away from producing zero points in zero games for you going forward. He is still a Top 20 scorer right now, so let someone else deal with it and get the good return that you can.
Mikko Koivu, Minnesota – His talent is underrated, but his upside is probably 75 points. So seeing the younger Koivu sit at a point per game would have my trigger finger pretty itchy. You are already seeing a slowdown with this guy, as he has eight points in his last 12 contests.
Devin Setoguchi, San Jose – The 22-year-old has an upside of about 85 points and in his first full NHL season he is on pace for 81. Too soon for this. If you act quickly, your fellow GM’s may not have noticed that Setoguchi has just seven points in his last 11 games. He should finish with around 70 this campaign.
Todd White, Atlanta – Do I really have to explain this one? Players who are in their mid-30s and have career highs of 60 points do not suddenly produce into the 70s. In his last four seasons, White has averaged 13 games missed. He’ll miss at least five or six this year and his production will slowdown. I think 27 points in 33 games going forward sounds about right. That would give him a new career high of 62.
Martin Havlat, Chicago – If you think this guy will play 82 games this year, then I have got a bridge that you may be interested in buying. The numbers: 73, 72, 67, 68, 18, 56, 35. Those are his games played in his career. His shoulder is being held to his body by a piece of gum and some spit. Any game now he could be out for the season.
Buy Low
Kyle Okposo, NY Islanders – He is on pace for 30 points and I still believe he will make it to 45. That would require 33 points in 42 games. He has seven in his last six, so the rookie already showing signs.
Robert Nilsson, Edmonton – He is one of those players who responds to healthy scratches. Since he was scratched, he has two points in five games and is a plus-6. Those are modest numbers, but he is clicking on a line with Sam Gagner and Erik Cole – each of whom also make decent “buy low” candidates. Nilsson is on pace for 28 points, but like Okposo I think he will flirt with 45.
Michael Frolik, Florida – Fourteen of his 16 points have come in his last 16 games, so although his pace says “36″, he is actually at almost a point per game. With 44 games left, I think he could get 36 to 41 points, meaning he will finish with 52 to 57.
Andy McDonald, St. Louis – He is a week to 10 days away from practicing with the Blues and should be in action before the All-Star break. He was over a point per game before breaking his leg and I don’t see him slowing down any. His owner would be sour on him, with this injury, so jump on that.
Nathan Horton, Florida – C’mon, he’s not going to finish with 45 points. Be realistic. He needed a few games to get his timing back and going forward I can see a good 35 points or more. That would put him in the 55- to 60-points area.
Tomas Fleischmann, Washington – He had 13 points in 17 games prior to his bout with pneumonia and I noticed his responsibility increasing. He is due back on Tuesday, so I would anticipate that he will notch 33 points in his final 42 games – giving him 52 on the season.
Sergei Samsonov, Carolina – He is on pace for 43 points, but the 30-year-old is back to his old self. He has 18 points in his last 22 games, which translates to about 67 points. He’ll get 35 going forward and finish with 56. That’s not great, but much better than what he started at.
More next week!
The Impact of a Comeback
By Darryl Dobbs
How comfortable did you feel drafting Alexander Semin in September? Not comfortable enough to draft him when you should have? Was he taken by somebody else in the ninth round when you were considering him in the eighth?
How do you feel about that now?
The league leader in points (tied heading into Saturday) and in points per game, Semin is showing all the skills that were on display in 2006-07 when he had 73 points. He missed much of last year with a sprained ankle and when he did play he was clearly still hampered by the injury.
Semin isn’t the only player who has bounced back from such a year. Entering Saturday, Philadelphia’s Simon Gagne was 11th in scoring with 12 points in nine contests, Joe Sakic had a point per game, Shea Weber was tied for the lead amongst rearguards and Kevin Bieksa had nearly a point per game. If those players were healthy last season, each one of them would have been drafted a good three to five rounds ahead of where they actually were selected this past summer in fantasy leagues.
I don’t have a hard and fast rule about the amount of aging stars (Sakic) or Band-Aid Boys (Gagne) or possible future Band-Aid Boys (any young player who misses significant time in his first two or three seasons, i.e. Weber, Semin or Bieksa) on my fantasy league. But I do monitor the situation while sitting down at the draft. If I see I have Semin on my team, I probably think twice before drafting a Weber.
It’s all about the level of risk you are comfortable with. In my one keeper league – the league is in its 19th season – the team in second is just a few points ahead of me. He has Semin, Gagne and Sakic. It’s your classic “buy low” scenario and he really took advantage. Will he hang on? I would eat my hat if he does. One of those players will get hurt again and my money is on Gagne, who has more of a history than the rest of the group.
Even so, it’s a game of luck and this fantasy owner took too many risks and every one of them has paid off. He could have just as easily had Justin Williams, Joni Pitkanen and Pavol Demitra instead of the other three. In the summer, how was anyone to know which players would get hurt again and which ones would bounce back?
Dobber’s Predictions:
Alexander Semin will play at least 78 games and wind up with 85 points. When Alex Ovechkin gets rolling, Semin will start to slow.
Simon Gagne will get to the 35-game mark (31 points) before suffering a minor injury. Upon his return, he will get to 62 games before missing more time. Expect 59 points in 62 contests.
Kevin Bieksa will miss games from time to time with minor injuries, but will finish with 54 points in 72 games, completely a solid comeback year.
Joe Sakic will play 80 games and garner 80 points. Never doubt Big Joe!
Shea Weber will also get to the 80-game mark and have a Dion Phaneuf-like breakout season, tallying 53 points.
