Spezza and Heatley
By Darryl Dobbs
It figures. Spezza owners finally get an 82-game season out of him and he posts his worst points-per-game numbers since his first full NHL season. That means that there has never been a better time to acquire the Ottawa pivot then right now and ditto for his superstar linemate Dany Heatley.
After three consecutive campaigns of producing at least 1.21 points per game, Spezza slipped to 0.89. His 73 points was 14 points lower than his 2006-07 season in which he missed 15 games. At the young age of 25 (he turns 26 this coming Saturday), the Mississauga, Ontario native has his best years ahead of him. He is still short of his prime. So while his owner thinks of him as a 75- or 80-point player with a lot of upside, you can capitalize on that. The fact of the matter is, he is a 90-point player with upside and you’ve just witnessed his downside.
All players have a year or two like it and the real stars bounce back nicely. Joe Sakic had a bad run of two years. In 1996-97 and 1997-98, he had injury-plagued seasons of 74 and 63 points with the latter number even falling short of his games played that year (64). It was hard to believe that Sakic would peak at the age of around 28, but some poolies did that very thing. The expectations were lowered to that of a 70- or 75-point player, but in 1998-99 he had 96 points. He also cleared 100 on two occasions after that.
Spezza will be the same way. When you follow a player’s statistics closely, like die-hard poolies do, you are following them day-to-day and week-to-week. To see a player have an entire season go bad, it’s only natural to have your expectations dip. This is where the more casual fantasy owner has an advantage. That owner sees the year-to-year numbers and still sees a player who will get 90 points with potential for more. Sometimes you have to take a step back and look at the big picture. Pretend you didn’t live through Spezza’s ups (he had a couple) and downs (he had a lot) from last campaign and take 2008-09 as the exception and not the rule. If it helps, just think of how he had 33 points in 34 games under the new coach. Still sub-par for him, but much better.
Dany Heatley is in the same boat. The 28-year-old had three straight campaigns with a 1.15 points-per-game average or better before slipping to 0.71. As Spezza goes, so goes Heatley and you need to after him with the same eagerness that you would go after a 100-point player. Don’t overpay, because now is the time to get him at a discount, but put in the effort – give his owner a call and try and make something happen.
That means that if you can get Spezza or Heatley by giving up a player who beat them in scoring this year, then do so. I’m talking about Rick Nash, Alexander Semin, Mike Richards, Martin St.Louis, Marc Savard or even Jeff Carter – Spezza and Heater will top all of them in scoring in three of the next four seasons. The only exceptions would be any player in the Top 9 scoring this season, or Joe Thornton. As far as I’m concerned, any other player in the Top 30 (Spezza finished 31st) should be swapped for one of these guys in keeper leagues that count strictly points, not taking into account positions. It may seem crazy now, but you won’t regret it.
Change of Scenery – Trade Deadline Pt. 2 of 2
By Darryl Dobbs
Last week, we took at a look at the top trade candidates in the East and their fantasy impact. This week, let’s take a look at the Western Conference – where teams five through 15 are closer than I’ve ever seen them.
In fantasy hockey, a player being moved to a new NHL team is often good news for the fantasy owner. A fresh start or a likely shot as a star’s linemate – or both – is just what the doctor ordered for a slumping player.
Here are the most interesting players in the West who could be moved March 4, and what to expect from them if they are…
Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota – Despite solid statistics, young backup Josh Harding has a record of just 2-7-1. Since that record doesn’t tell the whole story, the Wild consider the youngster to have the ability to get in some starts down the stretch. Backstrom is a UFA this summer, so the team may move him to improve their future, while at the same time hope Harding keeps them in contention. Still, it is a million dollar industry and not all teams would take a chance on extra playoff revenue like that. On a new team, Backstrom would play in a weaker system, so his stats will go the wrong way. Odds of being dealt: 25%.
Marc-Andre Bergeron, Minnesota – Another Wild candidate to be moved, Bergeron could actually go regardless of whether they buy or sell – simply because of the numbers game. Kurtis Foster is back now and the team already has offensive pop from the blueline in Brent Burns and Marek Zidlicky. Bergeron’s value will go up or down depending on the team he ends up on. You saw his role in Anaheim last year, and it wasn’t pretty. But a team like Buffalo could really use a QB with his skill. Odds of being dealt: 60%.
Chicago Blackhawks’ prospects – This team has a ton of really great prospects in the pipeline and they already have a young, skilled and deep NHL roster. They don’t seem to want to accommodate Petri Kontiola’s trade demands – yet – but someone will move for a rental. Jack Skille is another candidate to move. They also have three promising goaltenders in the system – Corey Crawford, Antti Niemi and Josh Unice. Odds of one being dealt: 95%.
Erik Cole, Edmonton – His contract is running out and a lot of teams could use a hard-hitting second-line winger. Don’t point to his playoff and Stanley Cup experience, because – come on – he played two games. But still, he would bring the Oilers a decent return and moving him wouldn’t exactly take them out of contention. On a deep, elite team his value will drop as he will man the third line. On a borderline playoff team, he could see a nice pop if placed on the first line. Odds of being dealt: 50%
Marian Gaborik, Minnesota – His contract is up and he is not thrilled with Minnesota’s system. The Wild are likely to move him for some pipeline replenishment. When healthy, he is one of the greats of the game and it is scary to see how he would do on a team that opens it up. Key words – “when healthy”. Odds of being dealt: 80%
Olli Jokinen, Phoenix – Typically when teams “sell” at the deadline, they move out expensive vets and bring in prospects and young NHLers. So what happens when a team already has an abundance of those? For that reason, you may not see Jokinen or Ed Jovanovski moved. If you do, Jokinen can’t do any worse. A change of scenery would be a plus, no question. Odds of being dealt: 30%
Nikolai Khabibulin, Chicago – The Blackhawks have two No.1 goaltenders and three pretty good prospect goaltenders. Rather than invest so much money in goaltending, the thinking is that the ‘Hawks will deal Khabibulin. Don’t be too sure on that – you can’t buy this kind of insurance. If move, though, it can only help owners to have him play every game instead of split time. Odds of being dealt: 40%.
Jordan Leopold, Colorado – The Avs are fading fast, Leopold is finally healthy and his contract is up this year. Throw in the fact that the market for puck-moving defenders is a strong one, and he’s as good as gone. Leopold will thrive as a No.2 PP guy alongside an elite No.1. If he has a guy like Bryan McCabe at the other end of the blue line, that is the type of situation that would give him fantasy value. Odds of being dealt: 65%.
Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim – The Ducks are in a dogfight and they will lose the dogfight if they trade one or both of their big guns on the back end. However, rumors of him being traded to New Jersey won’t die. The Devils are a different team then when he was last there, so his fantasy value will make a sideways move if he goes there. Odds of being dealt: 45%.
Chris Pronger, Anaheim – He still has another year on his contract, but if the return is right, the Ducks could move him. The arrival of Ryan Whitney makes this just a little more likely. Similar to Niedermayer, on any other team Pronger holds the same high value. Only one of Nieds or Pronger will be dealt, if at all. Odds of being dealt: 40%.
Ryan Smyth, Colorado – Teams value his leadership and scoring punch, but because he is locked in for several more years yet the Avs will wait for the right offer. On a weak team, his value rises. On a strong team it drops. He was a point-a-game player with Paul Stastny out of the lineup, but barely a 50-point guy when he was in the lineup. Odds of being dealt: 50%.
Steve Sullivan, Nashville – His contract is up and he is starting to show some of his old form. The back is so far so good, too. The Preds need a playoff spot, so they probably won’t sell. But if they do, he is a great candidate to go. On a good team, he’ll be buried, but on a similar team he’ll be every bit as good as he is on the Preds and probably even better under a looser system. Odds of being dealt: 15%.
Keith Tkachuk, St. Louis – The Blues have already pulled off this trick and they’ll do it again. Maybe we’ll even see Tkachuk just head back there in the summer. A trade will probably hurt his value, because his situation in St. Louis is a good one. Odds of being dealt: 80%.
DobberHockey.com will have the fantasy impact of every trade within minutes of it being announced on March 4. It is a “must stop” for all fantasy owners who have their own trade deadlines to worry about.
Cleverly Adding Peverley
By Darryl Dobbs
Had he slipped through waivers, there was a better than even chance that Rich Peverley would find himself to be a career minor leaguer, consistently in the Top 20 in AHL scoring. He would join the likes of Jason Krog, Darren Haydar, Keith Aucoin – the list goes on when speaking of AHL superstars who never really cracked the NHL.
Instead, the Nashville Predators failed to sneak him through waivers to their farm team in Milwaukee. The Atlanta Thrashers claimed him.
In the last few days, he could have picked up four points in three games for Milwaukee while centering the likes of Patric Hornqvist and Hugh Jessiman. Instead, he has six points in three games for Atlanta while centering the likes of Ilya Kovalchuk and Bryan Little.
Nice.
The 26-year-old former college star was never drafted. He went from Junior B’s Kitchener Dutchmen to Junior A’s Milton Merchants before joining St. Lawrence University in 2000. That hockey program boasts such notables as … John Zeiler (L.A.). Okay, not all that notable. Which makes his accomplishment all that more impressive.
Peverley’s calling card is his speed and opponents have difficulty keeping up with that. Even worse for them, they have to focus on Kovalchuk so they are stuck in a catch-22. If they focus any effort on keeping up with Peverley, then that’s all the room Kovalchuk needs to get open. Five of Peverley’s six Atlanta points are assists.
That kind of success buys him more opportunity to keep it up. With each game that he posts a point, Peverley is awarded two more on the big line. The odds are better than 50-50 that he’ll continued to produce at a 65-point pace. For him to fail now would require three consecutive pointless games in conjunction with an embarrassing plus/minus.
If that happens, then maybe he will join Haydar, Krog et al. after all.
But for now, Peverley makes a great No.3 center pickup in all roto-league formats for at least two weeks, with decent odds of posting another 25 to 30 points in the final 36 games and finish with 40 to 45 points in all.
For now, his keeper-league value should be kept conservative – like that of a 50-point player with upside. He will need to enter October on Kovalchuk’s line before warranting an upgrade in his fantasy value…
Meanwhile…
Todd White, now on the second line, has two points in the two games that Peverley has posted six points. White has 23 points in his last 19 games and has only missed the scoresheet twice in that span, but the situation bears watching, given the reduction in ice time (Peverley is seeing two more minutes per game)…
Phil Kessel has missed three games so far with mononucleosis, so you would think that Blake Wheeler would fill that void nicely as he moves up the depth chart. However, Wheeler has just one point in those contests – and one of those games he saw the second most ice time of his career. Meanwhile, the other scoring right winger Chuck Kobasew has a point in each of those three contests…
Robert Lang is sure benefiting from centering the two Kostitsyn brothers in Montreal. While Andrei and Sergei light the lamp, Lang has 11 points in his last seven contests…
Patrik Berglund – Calder Candidate
By Darryl Dobbs
After a sluggish start, rookie Patrik Berglund has shot up the rookie scoring charts and emerged as a legitimate contender for the Calder Trophy.
When St. Louis drafted him 25th overall in 2006, it was overshadowed by the fact that the team also drafted defenseman Erik Johnson with the top pick. Pundits agreed even then, though, that Berglund was one of the 15 best offensive forwards that were available and that potentially he could be remembered as the one of the top three.
Coming from a stacked draft that included Jonathan Toews, Jordan Staal, Nicklas Backstrom, Kyle Okposo, Peter Mueller, Phil Kessel and Bryan Little, Berglund is finally starting to get noticed. The attitude has always been there – the Swede spent the summer in North America and worked on his main weakness – strength.
After just three points in his first eight NHL contests, the Blues suddenly really needed him to step up. Injuries to Paul Kariya and fellow rookie T.J. Oshie pushed the 20-year-old Berglund up to the No.1 slot up the middle. And he delivered.
With the added ice time and responsibility, Berglund has posted 13 points in 12 contests to go with a plus-8 rating. He has moved up to fourth place in the rookie scoring race with 16 points and is playing hotter than any of the three guys ahead of him. With Oshie now back in the lineup, Berglund’s ice time has not taken a hit at all and it is also unlikely to change when Kariya returns. He has always reminded analysts of another tall and lanky Swede, but his play of late is really conjuring up Mats Sundin images.
All rookies go through their cold spells and Berglund will be no different, but don’t be shocked if he wins the rookie scoring title with 70 points or more…
Meanwhile…
After starting the season off with nine points in seven games, Vancouver’s Ryan Kesler has just four in his last 20…
My “healthy scratch” theory has come into play again, this time with Edmonton’s Dustin Penner. The 26-year-old was scratched for two games in mid-November, but has since tallied nine points in eight contests. He is also a plus-4 in that span with 12 penalty minutes, making him a multi-category fantasy asset. Twice in the last four games, Penner has seen more than 21-and-a-half minutes of ice time…
In four NHL games this season, rookie winger Matt D’Agostini has four points. The 22-year-old has 25 points in 20 AHL contests, but at this rate he may not get sent down again…
Calgary winger Curtis Glencross has points in eight of his last 10 games and 12 points overall in that span. A dark horse to be a 60-point player, this 25-year-old is clearly a Mike Keenan favorite…
Kyle Quincey – Blip or Stud?
By Darryl Dobbs
So how does a defenseman go from eighth on the depth chart on one NHL team to second on another? Every season, there seems to be a defenseman who is discarded either via waivers or as a throw-in in a deal and that rearguard ends up performing fairly well on his new team.
In 2005, Columbus had no use for Francois Beauchemin, so they sent him to Anaheim when the Ducks were shedding Sergei Fedorov’s salary. Beauchemin went on to post 34 points in 61 games for Anaheim. He has since found a different sort of role for the Ducks, but were it not for the presence of Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger it could be argued that he would have been a 40-point defenseman today.
Later that same season, Ron Hainsey was waived by the Habs. The Blue Jackets picked him up and he posted 66 points over the last two seasons there, parlaying that into a big contract with the Thrashers.
Fantasy owners probably saw the biggest turnaround when Dan Boyle was dumped by Florida to Tampa Bay for a fifth-round pick in 2002.
This year, there was no room in Detroit for 23-year-old Kyle Quincey so they tried to sneak him through waivers to Grand Rapids. The Kings claimed him and what we have is some impressive production.
Only fellow rearguard Drew Doughty has averaged more ice time per game on the Kings than Quincey. He is also fifth on the team in power-play ice time, averaging 3:33 per contest and seven of his 13 points have come with the man advantage.
So what is in store for Quincey? Granted, Jack Johnson is the future quarterback in Los Angeles, although he is still several years away. The team also has Thomas Hickey and Colten Teubert on the way. So including Doughty, the Kings already have their future top four set. But my theory on quality players still holds here – if the player is performing, the team will find room. Well, 13 points in 19 contests (and a plus-5 rating) is performing.
The Kings were hoping to get this kind of performance from Peter Harrold. Had they received it, they would have found a way to keep Harrold in the mix when all of their stud defensemen joined the roster in a couple of years. Now they’ll be accommodating Quincey instead.
A former quarterback for the London Knights and Mississauga Ice Dogs of the OHL, Quincey is on pace to tally 54 points this season. That seems a little high for a player who up until now could not find regular work in the NHL. However, given his ice time and consistency (he has never gone three-straight pointless games this year), there is no reason to think he won’t reach 45.
With the depth of blueliners in the Los Angeles system it is difficult to project how Quincey will fare in the long term, but if he tops 45 points this campaign he will be given every chance to succeed in future ones…
Meanwhile…
My favorite example of “if the player is performing, the team will find room” is Jeff Carter. Banished to the third line in the minds of many fantasy owners, he slipped through their grasp thanks to their narrow-mindedness. Carter is too skilled to toil on the third line by the usual definition of the term. We are seeing that now, given his 16 goals in 23 games and eight points in his last six. Those poolies who saw past the “third-liner” label are smiling…
One of the streakiest players in the NHL is Ryan Malone. Tampa Bay is finding that out first hand as they watched him struggle with three points in 14 games and then follow that up with eight in his last five. Ride the wave for another week or so. In the end, he’s a 50-point player…
Notorious slow starter Jay Bouwmeester has nine points in his last eight games. His career high is 46 points and he will beat that this season by at least five.
Hurricane Warning!
The may have finished 5th in NHL scoring last season, but the Hurricanes are going to score even more in 2008-09.
No, the Hurricanes will not explode because Eric Staal suddenly finds himself a kazillionaire. Actually, the reason dates back to February 11, 2008. That was when the team acquired Joe Corvo. Up until that point, Carolina had averaged 2.88 goals per game. After that it was 3.46.
That prorates to an extra 34 goals in the season ahead. Will they do it? I believe that they can.
Carolina GM Jim Rutherford has known for several years that this team needed a dynamic power-play quarterback. He didn’t realize how much until he saw what this team did after Corvo came to town. So impressed was he, that he added a second one in Joni Pitkanen. So now the ‘Canes have two threats on the back end.
There is little doubt in my mind that Corvo will set career highs this season. The 31-year-old had 21 points in 23 games with Carolina to finish with his current best of 48. Write this down and throw it in my face if I’m wrong: he will beat that number by the trade deadline (end of February).
As for Pitkanen, who will turn 25 in a few days, all that is stopping him is his health. He has missed an average of just fewer than 15 games per season in his NHL career. A potential 60-point defenseman is of little use to poolies if he can’t play 70 games. Still, his presence in the lineup for the 65 to 70 games that he will actually play will help boost the final numbers for some of the forwards. This eighth-ranked power play from last year will be Top 5 this season.
That bodes well for the team’s top six, which is further bolstered by the return of Justin Williams and Rod Brind’Amour, neither of whom was in the lineup while they scored at a 3.46 goals-per-game clip. That’s right, this team that was scoring as well or better than any other team in March did so without two of their four best players in the lineup.
Both Brind’Amour and Williams were out with knee injuries for a huge chunk of 2007-08, but judging by beat writer Chip Alexander’s observations (link: http://blogs.newsobserver.com/canes/friday-finish-workout-observations) both are back to their old selves.
And then there is Staal. He who has added a few pounds, but has reduced his body fat. Soon to be 24 and entering his fifth NHL season, he is entering that window of a superstar’s career where things really take off. His 100 points back in 2005-06 may have only been a teaser.
Bottom line: at the draft table if you are agonizing over Player A (a Hurricane) and Player B (not a Hurricane), take the Hurricane. Trust me.
Pick up Dobber’s 2008-09 Fantasy Guide, updated through to September 14 and updated into October! Can any other fantasy hockey magazine tell you the impact of the Robert Lang trade on the Chicago lineup? Dobber’s does!
Free NHL Video Pick: Montreal Canadiens vs. Buffalo Sabres
The Montreal Canadiens visit the Buffalo Sabres in an Eastern Conference matchup, with the Habs sitting 1st overall in the East. The Sabres are struggling to get in the playoffs and need to slow down Alexei Kovalev, while putting a few behind Carey Price. Who will take this NHL game? Click to find out!
SAFE BET – NHL BETTING
NHL games usually turn out the way they are supposed to. It’s learning how to bet and win on those occasions when they don’t that make you money. Here, I’ll talk about one of those times.
One of the biggest motivations for a team to win comes after they have suffered a thumping — they usually rebound with an inspired effort, and a win. So far this 2007-08 NHL season, 3 out 4 times a team got thrashed, they came back with a win. The other game resulted in a 1 goal loss, but the team still scored 5 times.
Obviously, you have to beware of games where the losing team gets to play a powerhouse team next time out. But even on those occasions, the odds will be inflated and the possible reward for taking the underdog will be huge.
Keep an eye on scores and next time you see a lop-sided loss, bet that team to rebound big time. Odds are that you will win your bet.
NHL Hockey Begins
Well, the first games west of England were played last night and, if the scores are any indication, we are in for a great season. All four games were decided by one goal — three went to overtime and one was decided by shootout.
The Canadiens’ power play (tops in the NHL last year) clicked for all three Montreal goals in a 3-2 win in Carolina. Montreal captain Saku Koivu scored twice as the Habs showed they could do without Sheldon Souray and his wicked point shot.
Todd Bertuzzi had a goal and a helper against the Detroit Red Wings – the team he played for last year — as the Anaheim Ducks came out on the short end of the game. Neither team scored in the overtime period and only one player out of six scored in the following shootout. After starting their season in England, the Ducks (defending Stanley Cup Champions) still have two road games before their season opener a week from now.
Ottawa needed overtime to down the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2 as all the usual suspects did their thing for the Senators. Dany Heatley had just signed a six year deal worth $45 million earlier in the day and must have been riding high as he scored twice – including the OT winner) and added an assist. Toronto’s new power line – Nik Antropov, Mats Sundin and Jason Blake – had five points in the losing effort.
Colorado showcased their second line – Jaroslav Hlinka, Paul Stastny and Andrew Brunette – as the Avalanche beat the visiting Dallas Stars 4-3. The line accounted for 8 points including a hat trick from Stastny and three assists from Brunette. Colorado finished last season with 15 wins in 19 games and will look to continue their winning ways tonight in Nashville.
The Future of Oil Country
Things look pretty bleak for the Edmonton Oilers this season and with the Anaheim Ducks owning their first-round pick in 2008 (likely a Top 3 selection), next year may not be any better. However, judging by the performance of the kids in training camp, it will certainly be fun to watch this group grow together as a team. It looks as if the name of the game will be ‘offense’. Fantasy enthusiasts will not mind that in the least.From Andrew Cogliano to Zach Stortini, here’s a breakdown of how the Edmonton prospects are doing, along with speculation and odds of sticking this season.
Kyle Brodziak
Future third-line power forward is having a very strong camp and showing a surprising touch around the net. His four points in three games are tempered by his minus-3 rating. There is too much competition up the middle for Brodziak to make the team this year and he will likely be one of the final cuts. Odds: 40-1
Andrew Cogliano
The diminutive speedster started slowly but has impressed more and more with every game and now leads the team in preseason scoring with five points in three games. He will compete with Gagner and Schremp for the first-line center job (Jarret Stoll will be on the second line and Shawn Horcoff will be third line, it looks like). Cogliano has the inside track here and he will at minimum play nine games this season (the maximum he can play without his contract kicking in). Odds: 3-2
Sam Gagner
Probably Edmonton’s best prospect and he, along with Nilsson and Cogliano, has been one of the best performers in camp. He has really clicked with Ales Hemsky and Dustin Penner and could possibly get a nine-game audition to start the season, but it is doubtful that he will stick as an 18-year-old. Odds: 7-1
Tom Gilbert
He’s ready and his camp has been decent, but competition is fierce. The Oilers already have a pile of offensive rearguards. It does not look good. Odds: 20-1
Denis Grebeshkov
The best offensive rearguard in the preseason, Grebeshkov has two points in three games. He will almost certainly stick. Odds: He’s in.
J-F Jacques
His play has not overly impressed and has even been lackluster at times. With the competition in camp, Jacques will need to become more noticeable or more prospects will step over him on the depth-chart ladder. Odds: 60-1
Robert Nilsson
By all accounts, Nilsson has been a great addition on the second line, clicking with Raffi Torres and Stoll. He’ll be on the team this year and should produce in the 40- to 50-point range, with upside. Odds: He’s in.
Ryan O’Marra
A likely third-liner in the future, the responsible, two-way player is coming off off-season knee surgery and his start in camp has been somewhat slow. He needs a couple of seasons in the AHL. Odds: 60-1
M-A Pouliot
He’s third on the team in shots and he played 47 games for the Oilers last season. He has that going for him and he has not really looked out of place. He will likely stick, but it is looking more and more as if he may not have a future as a scoring line standout in the NHL. Odds: 3-2
Rob Schremp
Not bad, but not great. Schremp will likely need another season in the AHL to hone his defensive game. We all know he has the moves, but there is no way he gets on the team ahead of Cogliano or Gagner. He, too, is recovering from offseason knee surgery and the team is taking it slow with him. He will be a late-season call up. Odds: 40-1
Zach Stortini
The tough guy has had a strong camp and has even provided some offense. The loss of Fernando Pisani (ulcerative colitis) opens up a spot on the right side that Stortini will likely fill. Odds: 2-1
Patrick Thoresen
It hasn’t shown on the scoreboard, but the Norwegian has played a wonderful game in all the other areas of the game. He’ll likely make a fine third or fourth line addition to this team. Odds: 2-1
Slava Trukhno
It was thought that he was a few years away yet, but his camp has been a good one and he has even chipped in three points. He’s competing for a left wing spot with Jacques and Thoresen (and Pouliot has seen some time there), so he’s in tough. This year. Odds: 10-1
