The Impact of a Comeback
By Darryl Dobbs
How comfortable did you feel drafting Alexander Semin in September? Not comfortable enough to draft him when you should have? Was he taken by somebody else in the ninth round when you were considering him in the eighth?
How do you feel about that now?
The league leader in points (tied heading into Saturday) and in points per game, Semin is showing all the skills that were on display in 2006-07 when he had 73 points. He missed much of last year with a sprained ankle and when he did play he was clearly still hampered by the injury.
Semin isn’t the only player who has bounced back from such a year. Entering Saturday, Philadelphia’s Simon Gagne was 11th in scoring with 12 points in nine contests, Joe Sakic had a point per game, Shea Weber was tied for the lead amongst rearguards and Kevin Bieksa had nearly a point per game. If those players were healthy last season, each one of them would have been drafted a good three to five rounds ahead of where they actually were selected this past summer in fantasy leagues.
I don’t have a hard and fast rule about the amount of aging stars (Sakic) or Band-Aid Boys (Gagne) or possible future Band-Aid Boys (any young player who misses significant time in his first two or three seasons, i.e. Weber, Semin or Bieksa) on my fantasy league. But I do monitor the situation while sitting down at the draft. If I see I have Semin on my team, I probably think twice before drafting a Weber.
It’s all about the level of risk you are comfortable with. In my one keeper league – the league is in its 19th season – the team in second is just a few points ahead of me. He has Semin, Gagne and Sakic. It’s your classic “buy low” scenario and he really took advantage. Will he hang on? I would eat my hat if he does. One of those players will get hurt again and my money is on Gagne, who has more of a history than the rest of the group.
Even so, it’s a game of luck and this fantasy owner took too many risks and every one of them has paid off. He could have just as easily had Justin Williams, Joni Pitkanen and Pavol Demitra instead of the other three. In the summer, how was anyone to know which players would get hurt again and which ones would bounce back?
Dobber’s Predictions:
Alexander Semin will play at least 78 games and wind up with 85 points. When Alex Ovechkin gets rolling, Semin will start to slow.
Simon Gagne will get to the 35-game mark (31 points) before suffering a minor injury. Upon his return, he will get to 62 games before missing more time. Expect 59 points in 62 contests.
Kevin Bieksa will miss games from time to time with minor injuries, but will finish with 54 points in 72 games, completely a solid comeback year.
Joe Sakic will play 80 games and garner 80 points. Never doubt Big Joe!
Shea Weber will also get to the 80-game mark and have a Dion Phaneuf-like breakout season, tallying 53 points.
Sakic’s Ripple Effect on Fantasy Hockey
When Joe Sakic signed on with the Avs for another season, some pieces fell into place on a lot of fantasy rosters. When Teemu Selanne and Mats Sundin announcements are made, you will see the same ripple effect.
Had Sakic retired: Rookie T.J. Hensick and the inconsistent Ty Arnason would have shared the second-line center job. Wojtek Wolski and Marek Svatos would have been their wingers, and with a weaker power play, John-Michael Liles would have struggled to reach 40 points.
Now: Hensick deserves to make the team, but now there is little room. If he does make the roster, Arnason will be a frequent healthy scratch. New coach Tony Granato may not like Arnason as much as Joel Quenneville did. What you will find is Hensick’s ice time suffering early on, and perhaps a demotion. If he plays his way into a substantial role, then Arnason will be the one who suffers. Seeing as Arnason is coming off of his worst full NHL season, it is reasonable to assume that a press box is in his future.
Sakic will play with Ryan Smyth and one of Svatos and Wolski. One of Svatos and Wolski will play with Paul Stastny and Milan Hejduk. Any way you look at it, Svatos and Wolski see better linemates. The power play is much improved, so suddenly Liles will be flirting with 50 instead of 40.
The same thing will happen to whichever team signs Mats Sundin – assuming he signs with a team and does not retire. Things are looking grim on that front for Montreal and Philadelphia, which means Toronto, Vancouver, New York and retirement are in the running.
In Toronto, I like Mikhail Grabovski as a dark horse. Bring Sundin on board and I no longer like Grabovski. In New York, I like Mats Naslund a lot more with Sundin on his team than I do without Sundin. In Vancouver, I don’t see Pavol Demitra getting 65 points. Inject Sundin onto the roster and suddenly I see Demitra getting there easily.
As for Selanne, he will play this season and it will be for Anaheim. The problem is – the Ducks don’t have cap space. To get cap space, they will trade high-priced rearguard Mathieu Schneider. To trade Schneider, they will need to find a team with cap space. If that team has cap space, they are saving it for Sundin. The ripple effect here? When Sundin makes a decision, the teams that are out of the running can bring in Schneider, which would then mean Selanne can sign on the dotted line.
In the meantime, you can look at your Anaheim players as if their teammates will indeed include Selanne.
Meanwhile…
The Andrej Meszaros trade also had a ripple effect. In Ottawa, bringing in two rearguards and losing just one will make it difficult for Brian Lee to make the team and it will make it near impossible for Brendan Bell to. Lee will be fine, but initially his power-play time will be shared a little more.
In Tampa, the story gets much more interesting. The team lost two d-men and gained one, which means there are fewer players on the depth chart ahead of Andrew Hutchinson and Janne Niskala. Before the trade, I thought Hutchinson would be a defenseman to watch, but wait and see. Now…I think he is a legitimate sleeper pick who at the very least will have a strong first half.
