Change of Scenery – Trade Deadline Pt. 2 of 2
By Darryl Dobbs
Last week, we took at a look at the top trade candidates in the East and their fantasy impact. This week, let’s take a look at the Western Conference – where teams five through 15 are closer than I’ve ever seen them.
In fantasy hockey, a player being moved to a new NHL team is often good news for the fantasy owner. A fresh start or a likely shot as a star’s linemate – or both – is just what the doctor ordered for a slumping player.
Here are the most interesting players in the West who could be moved March 4, and what to expect from them if they are…
Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota – Despite solid statistics, young backup Josh Harding has a record of just 2-7-1. Since that record doesn’t tell the whole story, the Wild consider the youngster to have the ability to get in some starts down the stretch. Backstrom is a UFA this summer, so the team may move him to improve their future, while at the same time hope Harding keeps them in contention. Still, it is a million dollar industry and not all teams would take a chance on extra playoff revenue like that. On a new team, Backstrom would play in a weaker system, so his stats will go the wrong way. Odds of being dealt: 25%.
Marc-Andre Bergeron, Minnesota – Another Wild candidate to be moved, Bergeron could actually go regardless of whether they buy or sell – simply because of the numbers game. Kurtis Foster is back now and the team already has offensive pop from the blueline in Brent Burns and Marek Zidlicky. Bergeron’s value will go up or down depending on the team he ends up on. You saw his role in Anaheim last year, and it wasn’t pretty. But a team like Buffalo could really use a QB with his skill. Odds of being dealt: 60%.
Chicago Blackhawks’ prospects – This team has a ton of really great prospects in the pipeline and they already have a young, skilled and deep NHL roster. They don’t seem to want to accommodate Petri Kontiola’s trade demands – yet – but someone will move for a rental. Jack Skille is another candidate to move. They also have three promising goaltenders in the system – Corey Crawford, Antti Niemi and Josh Unice. Odds of one being dealt: 95%.
Erik Cole, Edmonton – His contract is running out and a lot of teams could use a hard-hitting second-line winger. Don’t point to his playoff and Stanley Cup experience, because – come on – he played two games. But still, he would bring the Oilers a decent return and moving him wouldn’t exactly take them out of contention. On a deep, elite team his value will drop as he will man the third line. On a borderline playoff team, he could see a nice pop if placed on the first line. Odds of being dealt: 50%
Marian Gaborik, Minnesota – His contract is up and he is not thrilled with Minnesota’s system. The Wild are likely to move him for some pipeline replenishment. When healthy, he is one of the greats of the game and it is scary to see how he would do on a team that opens it up. Key words – “when healthy”. Odds of being dealt: 80%
Olli Jokinen, Phoenix – Typically when teams “sell” at the deadline, they move out expensive vets and bring in prospects and young NHLers. So what happens when a team already has an abundance of those? For that reason, you may not see Jokinen or Ed Jovanovski moved. If you do, Jokinen can’t do any worse. A change of scenery would be a plus, no question. Odds of being dealt: 30%
Nikolai Khabibulin, Chicago – The Blackhawks have two No.1 goaltenders and three pretty good prospect goaltenders. Rather than invest so much money in goaltending, the thinking is that the ‘Hawks will deal Khabibulin. Don’t be too sure on that – you can’t buy this kind of insurance. If move, though, it can only help owners to have him play every game instead of split time. Odds of being dealt: 40%.
Jordan Leopold, Colorado – The Avs are fading fast, Leopold is finally healthy and his contract is up this year. Throw in the fact that the market for puck-moving defenders is a strong one, and he’s as good as gone. Leopold will thrive as a No.2 PP guy alongside an elite No.1. If he has a guy like Bryan McCabe at the other end of the blue line, that is the type of situation that would give him fantasy value. Odds of being dealt: 65%.
Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim – The Ducks are in a dogfight and they will lose the dogfight if they trade one or both of their big guns on the back end. However, rumors of him being traded to New Jersey won’t die. The Devils are a different team then when he was last there, so his fantasy value will make a sideways move if he goes there. Odds of being dealt: 45%.
Chris Pronger, Anaheim – He still has another year on his contract, but if the return is right, the Ducks could move him. The arrival of Ryan Whitney makes this just a little more likely. Similar to Niedermayer, on any other team Pronger holds the same high value. Only one of Nieds or Pronger will be dealt, if at all. Odds of being dealt: 40%.
Ryan Smyth, Colorado – Teams value his leadership and scoring punch, but because he is locked in for several more years yet the Avs will wait for the right offer. On a weak team, his value rises. On a strong team it drops. He was a point-a-game player with Paul Stastny out of the lineup, but barely a 50-point guy when he was in the lineup. Odds of being dealt: 50%.
Steve Sullivan, Nashville – His contract is up and he is starting to show some of his old form. The back is so far so good, too. The Preds need a playoff spot, so they probably won’t sell. But if they do, he is a great candidate to go. On a good team, he’ll be buried, but on a similar team he’ll be every bit as good as he is on the Preds and probably even better under a looser system. Odds of being dealt: 15%.
Keith Tkachuk, St. Louis – The Blues have already pulled off this trick and they’ll do it again. Maybe we’ll even see Tkachuk just head back there in the summer. A trade will probably hurt his value, because his situation in St. Louis is a good one. Odds of being dealt: 80%.
DobberHockey.com will have the fantasy impact of every trade within minutes of it being announced on March 4. It is a “must stop” for all fantasy owners who have their own trade deadlines to worry about.
Sakic’s Ripple Effect on Fantasy Hockey
When Joe Sakic signed on with the Avs for another season, some pieces fell into place on a lot of fantasy rosters. When Teemu Selanne and Mats Sundin announcements are made, you will see the same ripple effect.
Had Sakic retired: Rookie T.J. Hensick and the inconsistent Ty Arnason would have shared the second-line center job. Wojtek Wolski and Marek Svatos would have been their wingers, and with a weaker power play, John-Michael Liles would have struggled to reach 40 points.
Now: Hensick deserves to make the team, but now there is little room. If he does make the roster, Arnason will be a frequent healthy scratch. New coach Tony Granato may not like Arnason as much as Joel Quenneville did. What you will find is Hensick’s ice time suffering early on, and perhaps a demotion. If he plays his way into a substantial role, then Arnason will be the one who suffers. Seeing as Arnason is coming off of his worst full NHL season, it is reasonable to assume that a press box is in his future.
Sakic will play with Ryan Smyth and one of Svatos and Wolski. One of Svatos and Wolski will play with Paul Stastny and Milan Hejduk. Any way you look at it, Svatos and Wolski see better linemates. The power play is much improved, so suddenly Liles will be flirting with 50 instead of 40.
The same thing will happen to whichever team signs Mats Sundin – assuming he signs with a team and does not retire. Things are looking grim on that front for Montreal and Philadelphia, which means Toronto, Vancouver, New York and retirement are in the running.
In Toronto, I like Mikhail Grabovski as a dark horse. Bring Sundin on board and I no longer like Grabovski. In New York, I like Mats Naslund a lot more with Sundin on his team than I do without Sundin. In Vancouver, I don’t see Pavol Demitra getting 65 points. Inject Sundin onto the roster and suddenly I see Demitra getting there easily.
As for Selanne, he will play this season and it will be for Anaheim. The problem is – the Ducks don’t have cap space. To get cap space, they will trade high-priced rearguard Mathieu Schneider. To trade Schneider, they will need to find a team with cap space. If that team has cap space, they are saving it for Sundin. The ripple effect here? When Sundin makes a decision, the teams that are out of the running can bring in Schneider, which would then mean Selanne can sign on the dotted line.
In the meantime, you can look at your Anaheim players as if their teammates will indeed include Selanne.
Meanwhile…
The Andrej Meszaros trade also had a ripple effect. In Ottawa, bringing in two rearguards and losing just one will make it difficult for Brian Lee to make the team and it will make it near impossible for Brendan Bell to. Lee will be fine, but initially his power-play time will be shared a little more.
In Tampa, the story gets much more interesting. The team lost two d-men and gained one, which means there are fewer players on the depth chart ahead of Andrew Hutchinson and Janne Niskala. Before the trade, I thought Hutchinson would be a defenseman to watch, but wait and see. Now…I think he is a legitimate sleeper pick who at the very least will have a strong first half.
The Worst Team in Fantasy Hockey?
I often encourage fantasy owners to build their rosters with several players from the same team – especially those in leagues that also have a postseason element. In 2005 and 2006 I pushed the Penguins on you, believing that not only will this team compete deep into the playoffs year in and year out, but they have several great young players who will post big numbers and subsequently boost the numbers of their teammates.
In 2007 I pushed the Los Angeles Kings and this year I have been pretty vocal about the Coyotes and the Blackhawks. These are great young teams that will easily have 10 players who will be highly coveted in fantasy leagues and if you wait too long to acquire them, you will be paying out the yin-yang. But which team is so weak that poolies are going out of their way to not acquire their players? Which team carries such a stigma that the mere mention of a player in that organization immediately shuts down trade talks?
There are several candidates and strangely enough all of them come from the Eastern Conference. You could suggest the New York Islanders, for one. However, led by Kyle Okposo, there are five or six real promising offensive prospects – and offense is what much of fantasy hockey is all about, no? So while the Islanders deserve the notorious recognition of little immediate help (nobody will get 60 points this season on that team), they have a shred of hope for the future.
Atlanta is another good candidate, but with the young goaltending in the pipeline and the likes of Brian Little, Tobias Enstrom, Jonas Enlund and Angelo Esposito, they too have some hope. Granted, most teams have a better pipeline than the Thrashers do…but there is still one team worse. Besides, as long as Ilya Kovalchuk is in the organization there is always hope, however slim.
One could also bring up the Florida Panthers. After all – they traded away Olli Jokinen, so what does that leave them? Well, Nathan Horton should have an 80-point season any time now, and Stephen Weiss and Rostislav Olesz both have the potential to reach 70 points within three years. Jay Bouwmeester is going to be a superstar some day (patience!), and Shawn Matthias and goaltender Jacob Markstrom are both very promising.
So we’re down to the Leafs.
First, the positives. Vesa Toskala is a great goaltender and is probably in the Top 10 in his position. Justin Pogge also has promise between the pipes, but is some years away. Tomas Kaberle is one of the five best playmaking rearguards in the business and Anton Stralman looks as though he is five years away from making the same claim. Nik Antropov has now proven himself capable of becoming a 65-point player. Mikhail Grabovski was an astute pickup and if given a chance he could be a top three scorer on this team. Rookie Nikolai Kulemin will be a 30- or 35-goal, 60- or 65-point player someday soon.
Now the negatives. Luke Schenn will be a great defenseman…but from a fantasy standpoint he’ll be lucky to ever hit 40 points. On the current roster, other than Grabovski (who is a bit of a long shot) and perhaps Jiri Tlusty, no player has 80-point ability. In the system, no player has 80-point potential. There are no Bryan Littles and no Kyle Okposos. The Leafs will be hard pressed to have a player reach 70 points this season and looking at the pipeline one would wonder if it will happen at all before 2011.
They also won’t be making the playoffs this season. Barring a Philadelphia-like transition over the next 365 days, they won’t be making the playoffs next season either. And judging by their offseason decisions of late – signing Jason Blake in 2007 and Niklas Hagman in 2008, both players coming off overachieving contract years – Philadelphia didn’t teach them anything.
Yes, that’s definitely a quick way to get a dial tone – call up a fellow GM in your league and ask him or her if they are interested in Alexei Ponikarovsky.
By Darryl Dobbs
