Beantown Loves Their Special K(s)
By Darryl Dobbs
It’s certainly a lot more complicated than this, but a macro look at a successful hockey team tells us that it has strong goaltending, a stud defenseman four star forwards and strong secondary scoring. Heading into 2008-09, the Boston Bruins had Zdeno Chara as their defenseman, Marc Savard as a star forward, and they hoped that Patrice Bergeron could recover from is concussion to be that second big scorer. The B’s also hoped that the tandem of Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez would keep them in enough games to squeak into the postseason.
Two of their kids becoming sensations so quickly was not something the Bruins could have counted on, but they’ll take it. And so will their fantasy owners.
David Krejci was supposed to be their “third-line” center behind Savard and Bergeron. Phil Kessel was a promising young player without a clear role. That was in September. Today, these two kids and fellow youngster Milan Lucic are the Boston Bruins.
In fact, Savard – a $5 million player who has twice topped 95 points – has just seven points in his last 10 contests, while the so-called third-line center has 16 in that span. Going back further, Krejci has 20 in his last 12 games. Ice time? He doesn’t need any. Four times this season Krejci has played fewer than 15 minutes in a game. He totaled six points in those contests.
The 22-year-old was a standout for Gatineau of the QMJHL, he was a standout for Providence of the AHL and now he is a standout for Boston of the NHL. I can’t think of one player in the league who I have bumped up their upside so frequently – as a prospect, I had Krejci’s ceiling at 65 points. By the end of 2006-07 I bumped it up to 70. After the way he ended 2007-08 (nine in his last seven regular season games, plus another five points in seven playoff tilts), I pushed his upside to 75.
Counting the postseason, Krejci has 43 points in his last 44 games. That’s more than half the season, so it’s time to give him his due – this guy can get 90 points. I would say 80 to 85 is a more likely career high for him, but 90 is feasible.
With Phil Kessel, the expectations were much higher. At times in 2005 and into 2006 he was considered the top prospect in his draft class. He ended up being selected fifth overall, but his stock hadn’t really fallen a whole lot. He made the team as an 18-year-old, but his 29 points disappointed poolies who had hopes of an immediate impact. His second year saw an improvement to 37 points, but fantasy owners were still unhappy – in many cases he was dealt or dropped in leagues across North America.
Heading into this campaign, fantasy owners didn’t even know what position he was playing. Center? Left wing? Right wing? Would he be on the top line? The third line?
Patience wins keeper leagues and experienced poolies know that these players need a few years – usually three to five – to gain in strength and experience. It’s Kessel’s third season and he has 31 points in 30 games playing right wing on the top line with Savard and Lucic.
Kessel and Krejci will be big names in fantasy hockey and it starts now…
Meanwhile…
If you are looking for an under the radar winger who can give you two points for every three games, you should take a flyer on Joakim Lindstrom. The Coyotes picked him up from Anaheim a couple of weeks ago in a little-talked-about deal, but the 25-year-old is blessed with a lot of skill. He has nothing left to prove in the AHL and has not had great opportunities at the NHL level. The knock on him has been his size, but so far in Phoenix he is clicking nicely with rookie Mikkel Boedker. Lindstrom has three points in three games so far…
B.J. Crombeen has had an excellent season so far. First he unexpectedly made the Stars out of training camp and then later, when the team tried to sneak him to the AHL through waivers he was scooped up by St. Louis. He has eight points in 13 games for the Blues, but seven in his last five. He also has 26 penalty minutes. There is nothing in his history to suggest that he could ever get more than 40 points in a season, but he does have the pedigree to support 150 penalty minutes. Sean Avery (who is likely out of the NHL for this season) could recoup much of their losses by scooping up Crombeen. Forty points and 150 PIMs is close to the 45 and 250 that Avery would have provided.
Patrik Berglund – Calder Candidate
By Darryl Dobbs
After a sluggish start, rookie Patrik Berglund has shot up the rookie scoring charts and emerged as a legitimate contender for the Calder Trophy.
When St. Louis drafted him 25th overall in 2006, it was overshadowed by the fact that the team also drafted defenseman Erik Johnson with the top pick. Pundits agreed even then, though, that Berglund was one of the 15 best offensive forwards that were available and that potentially he could be remembered as the one of the top three.
Coming from a stacked draft that included Jonathan Toews, Jordan Staal, Nicklas Backstrom, Kyle Okposo, Peter Mueller, Phil Kessel and Bryan Little, Berglund is finally starting to get noticed. The attitude has always been there – the Swede spent the summer in North America and worked on his main weakness – strength.
After just three points in his first eight NHL contests, the Blues suddenly really needed him to step up. Injuries to Paul Kariya and fellow rookie T.J. Oshie pushed the 20-year-old Berglund up to the No.1 slot up the middle. And he delivered.
With the added ice time and responsibility, Berglund has posted 13 points in 12 contests to go with a plus-8 rating. He has moved up to fourth place in the rookie scoring race with 16 points and is playing hotter than any of the three guys ahead of him. With Oshie now back in the lineup, Berglund’s ice time has not taken a hit at all and it is also unlikely to change when Kariya returns. He has always reminded analysts of another tall and lanky Swede, but his play of late is really conjuring up Mats Sundin images.
All rookies go through their cold spells and Berglund will be no different, but don’t be shocked if he wins the rookie scoring title with 70 points or more…
Meanwhile…
After starting the season off with nine points in seven games, Vancouver’s Ryan Kesler has just four in his last 20…
My “healthy scratch” theory has come into play again, this time with Edmonton’s Dustin Penner. The 26-year-old was scratched for two games in mid-November, but has since tallied nine points in eight contests. He is also a plus-4 in that span with 12 penalty minutes, making him a multi-category fantasy asset. Twice in the last four games, Penner has seen more than 21-and-a-half minutes of ice time…
In four NHL games this season, rookie winger Matt D’Agostini has four points. The 22-year-old has 25 points in 20 AHL contests, but at this rate he may not get sent down again…
Calgary winger Curtis Glencross has points in eight of his last 10 games and 12 points overall in that span. A dark horse to be a 60-point player, this 25-year-old is clearly a Mike Keenan favorite…
Kyle Quincey – Blip or Stud?
By Darryl Dobbs
So how does a defenseman go from eighth on the depth chart on one NHL team to second on another? Every season, there seems to be a defenseman who is discarded either via waivers or as a throw-in in a deal and that rearguard ends up performing fairly well on his new team.
In 2005, Columbus had no use for Francois Beauchemin, so they sent him to Anaheim when the Ducks were shedding Sergei Fedorov’s salary. Beauchemin went on to post 34 points in 61 games for Anaheim. He has since found a different sort of role for the Ducks, but were it not for the presence of Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger it could be argued that he would have been a 40-point defenseman today.
Later that same season, Ron Hainsey was waived by the Habs. The Blue Jackets picked him up and he posted 66 points over the last two seasons there, parlaying that into a big contract with the Thrashers.
Fantasy owners probably saw the biggest turnaround when Dan Boyle was dumped by Florida to Tampa Bay for a fifth-round pick in 2002.
This year, there was no room in Detroit for 23-year-old Kyle Quincey so they tried to sneak him through waivers to Grand Rapids. The Kings claimed him and what we have is some impressive production.
Only fellow rearguard Drew Doughty has averaged more ice time per game on the Kings than Quincey. He is also fifth on the team in power-play ice time, averaging 3:33 per contest and seven of his 13 points have come with the man advantage.
So what is in store for Quincey? Granted, Jack Johnson is the future quarterback in Los Angeles, although he is still several years away. The team also has Thomas Hickey and Colten Teubert on the way. So including Doughty, the Kings already have their future top four set. But my theory on quality players still holds here – if the player is performing, the team will find room. Well, 13 points in 19 contests (and a plus-5 rating) is performing.
The Kings were hoping to get this kind of performance from Peter Harrold. Had they received it, they would have found a way to keep Harrold in the mix when all of their stud defensemen joined the roster in a couple of years. Now they’ll be accommodating Quincey instead.
A former quarterback for the London Knights and Mississauga Ice Dogs of the OHL, Quincey is on pace to tally 54 points this season. That seems a little high for a player who up until now could not find regular work in the NHL. However, given his ice time and consistency (he has never gone three-straight pointless games this year), there is no reason to think he won’t reach 45.
With the depth of blueliners in the Los Angeles system it is difficult to project how Quincey will fare in the long term, but if he tops 45 points this campaign he will be given every chance to succeed in future ones…
Meanwhile…
My favorite example of “if the player is performing, the team will find room” is Jeff Carter. Banished to the third line in the minds of many fantasy owners, he slipped through their grasp thanks to their narrow-mindedness. Carter is too skilled to toil on the third line by the usual definition of the term. We are seeing that now, given his 16 goals in 23 games and eight points in his last six. Those poolies who saw past the “third-liner” label are smiling…
One of the streakiest players in the NHL is Ryan Malone. Tampa Bay is finding that out first hand as they watched him struggle with three points in 14 games and then follow that up with eight in his last five. Ride the wave for another week or so. In the end, he’s a 50-point player…
Notorious slow starter Jay Bouwmeester has nine points in his last eight games. His career high is 46 points and he will beat that this season by at least five.
Fantasy Hockey Impact – Brenden Morrow
By Darryl Dobbs
Thursday night we lost one of the most important fantasy players in the world for the rest of the regular season. Not only was Brenden Morrow a multi-category stud, but he also played one of the most difficult positions to fill in fantasy hockey – left wing.
But his torn ACL does not just impact Brenden Morrow owners. Far from it. For better or for worse, owners of any player in the Dallas organization will feel this one.
Who is impacted?
1. Brenden Morrow – Obviously. In rotisserie leagues, finding a left winger who will get 70 points, 140 penalty minutes, plus-10 and 200 shots on goal…well, keep dreaming. In those leagues, owners will be lucky to scrape up a 35-point player who gets 75 PIMs. Possible actions: search the waiver wire for deals. Some possible available left wingers include teammate James Neal, Ryan Malone, Brendan Shanahan, Taylor Pyatt, Sergei Kostitsyn, Sean Bergenheim, Matt Cooke and Ben Eager.
2. Mike Ribeiro – One of the better set-up men in the league, Ribeiro no longer has a 30-goal scorer to pass the puck to. He was on the ice for nine of Morrow’s 14 points this year. If you remove one-third of those points (assuming a 20-goal winger replaces the 30-goal winger), then Ribeiro has 16 points in 18 games. That’s the pace he will have going forward, which would put him in that 74 to 77 range. With Morrow, he would have topped 80 points this campaign.
3. Loui Eriksson – Although Eriksson was often the other winger on the Morrow-Ribeiro line, Morrow’s loss may actually help him. The Stars need offense from the wing, and now there is one less player competing for that responsibility. Eriksson played nearly 21 minutes in Dallas’ first post-Morrow game and scored their only goal. The youngster seemed destined for 55 points this season, but now he could top 60. He has nine goals already this season, so hitting the milestone of 30 seems almost imminent.
4. James Neal – The rookie was called up temporarily to replace Jere Lehtinen. Now that there is an open roster spot, Neal could stick for good. He is a wildcard who, over a full campaign this year, could tally anywhere from 30 to 50 points.
5. Fabian Brunnstrom – It was looking as though the late-bloomer would play three and sit one all season long. An intelligent pure goal scorer, he was on his way to 20 goals, 10 assists…and a minus-12 in 60 games. With the extra roster spot, he will see all of those numbers increase slightly. Unfortunately, that will not include his plus/minus, which will probably be one of the lowest in the league come April.
6. Sean Avery – The premier agitator of the NHL, Avery saw his fourth-highest ice time all season Saturday. That includes 3:38 on the power play. If that’s a sign of things to come, his production will increase by at least 25 percent.
Dallas’ line combinations in the first post-Morrow contest: Brad Richards, with Steve Ott and Eriksson; Ribeiro, with Neal and Avery; Mike Modano, with Brunnstrom and Mark Parrish.
Meanwhile…
The Islanders’ Sean Bergenheim did not see 12 minutes of ice time in a game in his first five contests of the season. Since then, he has only been under that mark once. The result of the added responsibility is six points and 18 penalty minutes in his last 12 games. Not exactly Morrow numbers, but if the pickings are slim, he looks good for 45 points and 110 PIMs this year…
Since joining the Kings, young rearguard Kyle Quincey has 10 points in 16 games. Six of his points have come on the power play…
New Jersey defenseman Johnny Oduya has eight points in his last 10 games. Those of you who read the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide will remember that he had 21 points in his final 43 games last season…
‘Big Joe’ Thornton – Like Clockwork
By Darryl Dobbs
Joe Thornton is not quite at a point per game and his fantasy owners are deeply disappointed. They shouldn’t be, because everything is proceeding according to plan.
Big Joe is a top-six fantasy player (according to the DobberHockey player rankings) in leagues that do not have positional requirements and count strictly points.
Last season, Thornton had 24 points in his first 21 games, which was one of his faster starts, as his production only improved by about five percent after that.
However, in 2006-07, he had 23 in his first 21 and finished the year with 114 points, which is a 27 percent increase over his original 89-point pace. In 2005-06, it was the same story. Although it was the fastest start of his career (28 points in 18 games), his final 21 games that year saw him post 36 points.
All this goes to show that regardless of whether the 29-year-old starts this first quarter of the season on a 75-point pace or he starts it on a 90-point pace, he still shines brightest down the stretch.
In four of his last five seasons, Thornton has tallied at least 92 points and you can take it to the bank that he will do it again this campaign. I always make it an annual event in December to try and pry him off of his owner’s hands and this year will be no different.
Statistics don’t lie…
Meanwhile…
It is interesting to see that, heading into Sunday’s action, Jordan Staal has 11 points in 17 games while his older and more talented brother Eric has 10 in the same amount of games. This is the furthest into the season that Jordan has been the top-scoring Staal. I have a hard time believing that the elder brother will fail to reach 75 points. I also think that Jordan will top his career high of 42 points, but for this year I doubt he’ll get to 60…
Chicago rearguard Aaron Johnson is the only player in the NHL top five plus/minus leaders who is not a member of the Capitals. An offensive blueliner in junior, Johnson was praised for his defense in his first season of Columbus but fell out of favor the following year. I doubt he’ll push his plus/minus much higher than plus-15, but he is looking like a solid option if you need a depth rearguard who will post 30 points and not hurt you in the other categories…
Pittsburgh’s Ruslan Fedotenko has eight points and is a plus-2 in his last nine contests. He’s streaky, so this won’t last, but he is worth a temporary pickup and should finish the year with 45-plus points and remain on the positive side of the plus/minus ledger…
Boston’s Chuck Kobasew has six points in five games this year. The Band-Aid Boy had two points in the first game of the season before fracturing his ankle. He has four points in four games since returning and is definitely under the radar right now…
The Impact of a Comeback
By Darryl Dobbs
How comfortable did you feel drafting Alexander Semin in September? Not comfortable enough to draft him when you should have? Was he taken by somebody else in the ninth round when you were considering him in the eighth?
How do you feel about that now?
The league leader in points (tied heading into Saturday) and in points per game, Semin is showing all the skills that were on display in 2006-07 when he had 73 points. He missed much of last year with a sprained ankle and when he did play he was clearly still hampered by the injury.
Semin isn’t the only player who has bounced back from such a year. Entering Saturday, Philadelphia’s Simon Gagne was 11th in scoring with 12 points in nine contests, Joe Sakic had a point per game, Shea Weber was tied for the lead amongst rearguards and Kevin Bieksa had nearly a point per game. If those players were healthy last season, each one of them would have been drafted a good three to five rounds ahead of where they actually were selected this past summer in fantasy leagues.
I don’t have a hard and fast rule about the amount of aging stars (Sakic) or Band-Aid Boys (Gagne) or possible future Band-Aid Boys (any young player who misses significant time in his first two or three seasons, i.e. Weber, Semin or Bieksa) on my fantasy league. But I do monitor the situation while sitting down at the draft. If I see I have Semin on my team, I probably think twice before drafting a Weber.
It’s all about the level of risk you are comfortable with. In my one keeper league – the league is in its 19th season – the team in second is just a few points ahead of me. He has Semin, Gagne and Sakic. It’s your classic “buy low” scenario and he really took advantage. Will he hang on? I would eat my hat if he does. One of those players will get hurt again and my money is on Gagne, who has more of a history than the rest of the group.
Even so, it’s a game of luck and this fantasy owner took too many risks and every one of them has paid off. He could have just as easily had Justin Williams, Joni Pitkanen and Pavol Demitra instead of the other three. In the summer, how was anyone to know which players would get hurt again and which ones would bounce back?
Dobber’s Predictions:
Alexander Semin will play at least 78 games and wind up with 85 points. When Alex Ovechkin gets rolling, Semin will start to slow.
Simon Gagne will get to the 35-game mark (31 points) before suffering a minor injury. Upon his return, he will get to 62 games before missing more time. Expect 59 points in 62 contests.
Kevin Bieksa will miss games from time to time with minor injuries, but will finish with 54 points in 72 games, completely a solid comeback year.
Joe Sakic will play 80 games and garner 80 points. Never doubt Big Joe!
Shea Weber will also get to the 80-game mark and have a Dion Phaneuf-like breakout season, tallying 53 points.
Why Dallas is Still a Powerhouse
By Darryl Dobbs
The Stars are 1-3-1 this season, which is good for 27th in a league with 30 teams. The time to act is now – but not in the way we are seeing.
Poolies are jumping off the wagon in droves, pushing goalie Marty Turco off their team in trade talks, bailing on Mike Ribeiro, and dropping Sergei Zubov. These are the owners you need to talk to.
In 2007, Dallas started out 5-6-2 and by the time November 22nd rolled around they were still just 10-7-2. At that point, Turco had just five wins and Mike Smith had peeled off three wins in a row and the fantasy world was buzzing about how he had stolen the starting job. That didn’t happen.
In fact, 34 days later Turco had 15 wins and was back on track.
Now is the time to go after this guy. Especially in one-year leagues. Granted, there is still another six weeks or so before this little funk will end, but start your trade discussions now. Turco has given up three or more goals in each of his last five starts and has clearly been off. Two or three more losses – or even just weak games, and his fantasy owner will start to fold and give you the deal you are looking for.
Offensively, things haven’t been too bad, although Ribeiro is still without a goal and boasts a minus-6. He’ll be fine, though. How can he not? With wingers such as Brenden Morrow, Jere Lehtinen (who will be back soon), Sean Avery, Fabian Brunnstrom, Loui Eriksson and James Neal, he’ll always be playing with talent. He’s another one to go after.
As for Zubov, he has another three weeks or so of recovery from hip surgery. Given his injury-riddled campaign last year, as well as his age (38), his price will be rock bottom. But for the final 60 games of this season he should still reach the 40-point mark, which makes him well worth the small price.
We’re five games into the season folks! Don’t panic – and take advantage of those who do!
Meanwhile…
Some of the prospects who were late cuts in training camp have not let the demotion to the AHL get them down in the least. In Iowa, the Chops (yes, that’s their team nickname) have been led by Bobby Ryan’s seven points in five contests…Petri Kontiola is second on the Rockford Ice Hogs with six in five games…Chris Bourque’s six in four games for Hershey has already earned him a call up to Washington…Michel Ouellet has six points in four games for the Manitoba Moose, as he tries to impress his new organization…Janne Pesonen was the final scratch for the Penguins, but he has five in three games for Wilkes/Barre in his quest to get called back up…The other big Euro import from the offseason – Ville Leino – has four points in four games for Grand Rapids…
It hasn’t been rosy for all the top prospects, however. Philadelphia’s Claude Giroux has just a pair of points in five games…Another Flyer farmhand, Patrick Maroon, is pointless…The Rangers Hugh Jessiman is pointless in four for Hartford…Atlanta’s Riley Holzapfel is also pointless in four for Chicago…Leaf fans would be interested to know that Mark Bell and Boyd Devereaux have combined for one point in eight games with a minus-5 for the Marlies…Marek Zagrapan is pointless in three games for Portland…
Line Combos – How Important Are They?
By Darryl Dobbs
Line combinations are interesting. To me, if I see a player who I think has some offensive potential moved up to play on the top line, it justifies my thinking and I see a glimmer of hope.
Rarely does it shape how I feel a player will perform over the course of this season.
In the fickle universe of fantasy hockey, many poolies change their opinions on players as often as coaches change their line combinations. With some coaches, that could mean desperately trying to acquire a player and then desperately trying to unload him – before the end of the first period!
While there are some duos who will play the bulk of the season together – Anze Kopitar/Dustin Brown, Ryan Getzlaf/Cory Perry, Derek Roy/Thomas Vanek, Jarome Iginla/Daymond Langkow, Pavel Datsyuk/Tomas Holmstrom, Shawn Horcoff/Ales Hemsky, Patrick Elias/Brian Gionta, Doug Weight/Bill Guerin, Jason Spezza/Dany Heatley, Daniel Briere/Simon Gagne, Vincent Lecavalier/Martin St. Louis, Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Alex Ovechkin/Nicklas Backstrom all come to mind – the third member of the troika is often bounced around. The second line and one member of the third line are also bounced around quite a bit. What you have are five players that take turns moving around the top three lines and two players remaining on that first line.
Is reacting to those changes any way to run a fantasy squad?
Off the top of your head, can you think of more than a few line combo changes that impacted the final numbers of a player’s season? Look at last season’s top 30 scorers. Who shouldn’t have been there? Mike Ribeiro, Jason Pominville and Alexei Kovalev were surprises. Were any of them pulled up because of their linemates? Or did they pull up their linemates? If you swapped Brenden Morrow for Loui Eriksson, would Ribeiro have dropped more than 10 points? I submit – no. Would Eriksson have added more than 10 points to his final total? Again – no.
However, if I discover that such a move was made midway through a game, it raises my opinion of Eriksson. It reinforces my belief that there is some potential there. But that’s all it does.
Are you going to suddenly draft Tyler Kennedy if he is moved to the wing on Sidney Crosby’s line? If so – why? If all Petr Sykora can do playing on Evgeni Malkin’s line is tally 63 points, why would Tyler Kennedy playing one game on Crosby’s line get you excited?
In a rotisserie league he may be worth a one-game flyer, but beyond that the news shouldn’t make any long-term decisions for you. If you predict 35 points for Kennedy this season and he somehow ends up playing all of it with Crosby (impossible, because coach Michel Therrien changes his lines far too often, but stay with me here) would you really bump him up to more than 45?
The point here is that line combinations do not matter in fantasy hockey, generally speaking, other than for one- or two-game spurts. Yes, Jonathan Cheechoo had 25 more points than he would have several years ago when he was plunked onto Joe Thornton’s line. Ditto two seasons ago with Chris Clark and Alexander Ovechkin. But how many cases like that can you name?
So how come the most common email that I received in the last month was regarding the line combinations in my Fantasy Guide? How come reader demand saw to it that a line combo section was created in DobberHockey?
Here are some ‘dos’ and ‘don’ts’ with respect to NHL line combinations.
DON’T
- Let a line combination dictate the direction of your team.
- Add more than 10 points to any player’s final season projection no matter what line you saw him practice on. Even if he had three points in the previous contest.
- Go after a player because he practiced on the top line yesterday.
- Get upset or frustrated over a line combination
- Criticize another for reporting one line combination, when you saw that there was another line combination in the third period of last night’s contest. Just wait a day or two – you’ll both be wrong when the line combos change yet again.
- Get sour on a proven star because the coach put a bum on his left wing and another bum on his right wing. Stars put up points regardless.
- Drop a player’s value if he is on the third line if that player is proven to produce within a certain range. If he gets 50 to 60 points for three years in a row, then he will get 50 to 60 points this year. The best example of this is Jeff Carter. Many lowered his value in trade talks because he was a “third-line center”. Meanwhile, he played over 20 minutes per game in the playoffs and sees similar ice time this year. Don’t categorize by line number, categorize by ice time.
DO
- Slightly raise your opinion of a prospect if the coach gives him some time on the top line with the superstar. Regardless of success or failure during the audition, you can now be assured that the coach feels the way you do – that the kid has a future as a producer.
- Pay attention to ice time over linemates. If a prospect plays on the fourth line, but sees time on the power play and ends up with over 15 minutes, he should rise a little in your eyes in the short term.
- File it in the back of your mind if a centerman is moved to the wing on another line if you are in a rotisserie league.
- Pay attention if your young player is stuck on the fourth line getting nine minutes per game. If he gets 20 points that season, don’t drop his value any. However, if he gets 20 points and played 15 minutes per game – then you can drop his value.
- Pay attention if a player plays 15 minutes on the top line one game and is scratched the next. He had his chance and he may not get another. However, if he played eight minutes and then is scratched – he never really had that chance yet and it still may come.
Putting too much emphasis on line combinations is micro managing and that is not always good. Sometimes the smart thing to do is to step back and look at the big picture – that is: macro instead of micro.
How Good is Nikita Filatov?
By Darryl Dobbs
Lost in the fact that the 2008 Entry Draft was filled with a group of high-end defensemen rarely seen in an NHL draft, a very good non-Steven Stamkos forward was available. How good? That remains to be seen.
We all remember the 2004 NHL Entry Draft. Alexander Ovechkin was by far the top player available. By far. That was known years in advance. But in hindsight, how much better is he than Evgeni Malkin, taken second overall? Four years later, we are quite clear on the fact that Ovechkin is one of the three best forwards in the game today. So is Malkin.
Nikita Filatov, an 18-year-old Russian, was drafted sixth overall by the Columbus Blue Jackets this summer. Given that Filatov was drafted sixth in the NHL draft, the effort that is being put into drafting him in fantasy leagues is not even half of what is being put into drafting Stamkos. If you are in a one-year league, Stamkos was drafted in the middle rounds and Filatov was either not drafted at all – or he was drafted late. If you are in a keeper league, owners were offering up 80-point players in their package to get the first overall pick. What was being offered to get Filatov?
Stamkos is certainly no Ovechkin – and never will be. But the gap between he and Filatov is about as wide as the gap between Ovechkin and Malkin. It is early to pinpoint where Stamkos will peak, but it is likely he will fall into that 80- to 100-point range. Our exposure to Filatov is significantly less. His peak could be anywhere between 65 and 105 points…or more.
Let’s review what is known for sure.
1) He has a great attitude. He speaks English fluently and his dream has always been the NHL. He has his eyes on that prize and that prize only. There will be no fleeing to the KHL in three years.
2) He is defensively responsible. This is quite possibly the number one reason why a coach will choose not to keep an 18-year-old in the NHL. He needs to be familiar with his own end and Filatov is just that.
3) If any team that drafted second, third, fourth or fifth desperately needed a forward instead of a defenseman, he would have been seriously considered as a selection.
4) His talent is potentially at that rare elite level. He has great speed and he thinks the game well.
At the very least, as I wrote in the Fantasy Guide, you’re going to have a Milan Hejduk if you draft Filatov. That is – a forward who will be good for 70 points per year, with a couple of 80- or 85-point campaigns. In the very best-case scenario, you should not put a limit on him. There are not a lot of players out there who could get 110 points in this league. Until we see three seasons of what this youngster can do, I don’t think you can rule out a big number like that.
Do not make the mistake of treating Filatov like you would treat a Mikkel Boedker (PHO) or a Cody Hodgson (VAN). As far as the 2008 draft is concerned, from a fantasy (forwards) standpoint, there is Stamkos, Filatov, a big gap…and then the rest.
Meanwhile…
Andy McDonald leads all NHL players in preseason scoring with 13 points. He has really clicked on a line with Lee Stempniak and Brad Boyes. McDonald apparently played much of last season with several nagging injuries. He was coming off a short summer (when Anaheim won the Cup) and when he got off to a slow start he paid with his power-play time. This year, the summer was quite long, as his new team in St. Louis failed to make the postseason. He is one hundred percent and should return to his old ways. He averaged 81 points in his two seasons prior to last year.
The Worst Team in Fantasy Hockey?
I often encourage fantasy owners to build their rosters with several players from the same team – especially those in leagues that also have a postseason element. In 2005 and 2006 I pushed the Penguins on you, believing that not only will this team compete deep into the playoffs year in and year out, but they have several great young players who will post big numbers and subsequently boost the numbers of their teammates.
In 2007 I pushed the Los Angeles Kings and this year I have been pretty vocal about the Coyotes and the Blackhawks. These are great young teams that will easily have 10 players who will be highly coveted in fantasy leagues and if you wait too long to acquire them, you will be paying out the yin-yang. But which team is so weak that poolies are going out of their way to not acquire their players? Which team carries such a stigma that the mere mention of a player in that organization immediately shuts down trade talks?
There are several candidates and strangely enough all of them come from the Eastern Conference. You could suggest the New York Islanders, for one. However, led by Kyle Okposo, there are five or six real promising offensive prospects – and offense is what much of fantasy hockey is all about, no? So while the Islanders deserve the notorious recognition of little immediate help (nobody will get 60 points this season on that team), they have a shred of hope for the future.
Atlanta is another good candidate, but with the young goaltending in the pipeline and the likes of Brian Little, Tobias Enstrom, Jonas Enlund and Angelo Esposito, they too have some hope. Granted, most teams have a better pipeline than the Thrashers do…but there is still one team worse. Besides, as long as Ilya Kovalchuk is in the organization there is always hope, however slim.
One could also bring up the Florida Panthers. After all – they traded away Olli Jokinen, so what does that leave them? Well, Nathan Horton should have an 80-point season any time now, and Stephen Weiss and Rostislav Olesz both have the potential to reach 70 points within three years. Jay Bouwmeester is going to be a superstar some day (patience!), and Shawn Matthias and goaltender Jacob Markstrom are both very promising.
So we’re down to the Leafs.
First, the positives. Vesa Toskala is a great goaltender and is probably in the Top 10 in his position. Justin Pogge also has promise between the pipes, but is some years away. Tomas Kaberle is one of the five best playmaking rearguards in the business and Anton Stralman looks as though he is five years away from making the same claim. Nik Antropov has now proven himself capable of becoming a 65-point player. Mikhail Grabovski was an astute pickup and if given a chance he could be a top three scorer on this team. Rookie Nikolai Kulemin will be a 30- or 35-goal, 60- or 65-point player someday soon.
Now the negatives. Luke Schenn will be a great defenseman…but from a fantasy standpoint he’ll be lucky to ever hit 40 points. On the current roster, other than Grabovski (who is a bit of a long shot) and perhaps Jiri Tlusty, no player has 80-point ability. In the system, no player has 80-point potential. There are no Bryan Littles and no Kyle Okposos. The Leafs will be hard pressed to have a player reach 70 points this season and looking at the pipeline one would wonder if it will happen at all before 2011.
They also won’t be making the playoffs this season. Barring a Philadelphia-like transition over the next 365 days, they won’t be making the playoffs next season either. And judging by their offseason decisions of late – signing Jason Blake in 2007 and Niklas Hagman in 2008, both players coming off overachieving contract years – Philadelphia didn’t teach them anything.
Yes, that’s definitely a quick way to get a dial tone – call up a fellow GM in your league and ask him or her if they are interested in Alexei Ponikarovsky.
By Darryl Dobbs
