The Past Week: Five Things to Note
By Darryl Dobbs
Obviously a lot has gone on since the Entry Draft ended, and there are two ways to look at some of the moves. The first is – how does each transaction affect NHL teams? The second is – how does each transaction affect your fantasy team? You can guess which of the two we’re going to focus on.
A Tale of Two RFA’s
Carolina’s Jussi Jokinen and Toronto’s Mikhail Grabovski were slated to become restricted free agents July 1. Jokinen, 26, had 103 points in his first two seasons. Grabovski, 25, had 48 in his one and only season. Jokinen signed a two-year deal worth $3.4 million. Grabovski signed for three years at $8.7 million. Why such a difference? Because Jokinen had a weak start in Dallas in 2007-08 and then ended up in the middle of Tampa’s rollercoaster ride from hell. In the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world of the NHL, Grabovski boasts more value. But both contracts have an impact in the fantasy hockey world.
Jokinen is a potential 55- or 60-point player, but may not get a chance to show it on another team. The Hurricanes – leaders in reclamation projects – will get the most out of him.
Grabovski’s potential is somewhat higher and probably closer to 70 or 75 points. However, he showed a lot of signs of faltering in his one full season – signs that have taken a lot of promising players out of the league, from Todd Elik to Gilbert Dionne to Mike York to Dmitri Kvartalnov. He started the year with two points in seven games and went through a slump of 13 points in 38 games around the whole Kostitsyn fiasco. However, giving him nearly $3 million per season for the next three years carried a heavy buyout cost if it backfires. Therefore, the Leafs will do everything they can to ensure that it doesn’t backfire. Meaning, his ice time will go up and it will never go down no matter how badly he slumps.
The New York Rangers
Not exactly a team known for sitting on their hands, the Rangers have, in the past week, lost Nik Antropov, Colton Orr, Fredrik Sjostrom and Scott Gomez. They have added Marian Gaborik, Chris Higgins, Brian Boyle, Donald Brashear and Tyler Arnason, while shoring up the prospect pipeline with Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valentenko and adding some good AHL depth with Corey Locke.
The Rangers have struggled with finding an elite puck-moving defenseman since Brian Leetch and they are determined to eventually get one. Already with Bobby Sanguinetti and Michael Del Zotto in the fold, the team signed free agent Matt Gilroy out of college and acquired Valentenko almost as a throw in from Montreal. The impact of this philosophy probably won’t be felt in 2009-10, but you’ll start to see it the following year and by 2011-12 this team will be elite in terms of moving the puck up the ice and using the blueliners to set up the power play.
In shifting a centerman out of the roster in Gomez, while bringing in a winger in Gaborik, the team has made it clear that a young pivot will have an opportunity. It will be up to one of Brian Boyle and Artem Anisimov to seize the moment. The winner of that battle should top 40 points as a rookie.
“I Believe In You (Until I Find Someone Else)”
Not so fast Chris Mason. You may have gone 24-8-6 to end last season and chase Manny Legace out of the NHL, but the Blues must have been paying attention to what happened in Nashville. How else do you explain their decision to bring in Ty Conklin, a goaltender who has gone 43-19-7 over the last two seasons? Best to stay out of drafting a Blues’ goalie this summer. You don’t know how it will pan out.
Don’t unpack your things just yet Al Montoya. You may be heading back to San Antonio. You see, giving up just one goal in your first two starts was nice and all, but letting in six in your third game makes Phoenix a little uncomfortable.
So Jason Labarbera was signed and now, not only does Montoya’s NHL career hang in the balance before it even starts, but Ilya Bryzgalov better get off to a decent start as well.
Petr Budaj – the free ride is over. Your inconsistent hot/cold play may have withstood Jose Theodore and Andrew Raycroft, but Craig Anderson is hungry and he only had two bad games out of 31 last year. This is one battle where I would actually put my money on a netminder – give me Anderson for 10 bucks.
The Chicago Blackhawks
Everyone knows that the Blackhawks are a young, exciting team with a chance to win a Cup within the next five years. By bringing in John Madden and Tomas Kopecky, they increased their odds of that. Granted, they brought in Marian Hossa, who is a much bigger name, but he essentially just replaced Martin Havlat. This team needed Cup experience and a defensive presence and that’s what Madden brings.
Kopecky could be the next Jay Pandolfo. In Detroit, his ice time was sparse but it looked as though they were bringing him along to be a defensive forward and penalty-killing specialist. He’s been on a winner and that makes the Hawks a better playoff team – so pay attention if you’re in a league that has a separate postseason contest (as mine do).
The Los Angeles Kings
For three years now I have been hyping this team as the next Pittsburgh. They have the depth in their system at every position. Since then, Chicago has surpassed them – but clearly the Kings are making their move. They needed grit, experience and a defensive presence. Signing Rob Scuderi brings the latter and trading for Ryan Smyth adds the former. Bringing aboard Justin Williams helps in that regard as well. Watch out for this team come March.
Playoff Dark Horses Part 2 of 2
Here are some fellows from the Western Conference worth a look-see in your upcoming playoff pool draft.
Anaheim
The Obvious: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan, Scott Niedermayer, Teemu Selanne and Chris Pronger.
Not So Obvious: Selanne has just 23 points in his last 33 games…Giguere has started just three of the last 13 games and was pulled in his last one…
Dark Horses: Andrew Ebbett has quietly put up decent numbers after winning a job on the second line. If the Ducks go to the third round, Ebbett will have 10 points…Both Ryan Whitney and James Wisniewski are scoring at a 45-point clip since joining the Ducks. The two rearguards should continue that in the postseason…Jonas Hiller will probably be the surprise No.1 goalie for Anaheim, so steer clear of Giguere.
Calgary
The Obvious: Jarome Iginla, Mike Cammalleri, Olli Jokinen, Daymond Langkow, Miikka Kiprusoff and Dion Phaneuf.
Not So Obvious: Jokinen has never played a playoff game before in the NHL and in 15 games with Calgary he has been held off the scoresheet in nine of them. Of the six games he did put up points, four of them were multi-point efforts including a five-point game…In the 12 games that he played with Jokinen as a teammate (taking his No.1 center job), Daymond Langkow has just six points.
Dark Horses: Rene Bourque is having a career season and he will be back in the lineup in time to play in a playoff game…If you like Calgary to go deep, Jamie Lundmark makes an excellent pick for the late rounds. He’ll give you a point every two games.
Chicago
The Obvious: Martin Havlat, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Kris Versteeg and Brian Campbell.
Not So Obvious: Havlat is a Band-Aid Boy. Pick him and you could get a point per game out of him. Whether it’s all the games or zero games will depend on his shoulder…In 40 games since spraining his ankle, Kane has just 25 points (or a 50-point pace)…Versteeg has just nine points in his last 25 games. Move him down your list.
Dark Horses: Andrew Ladd has 42 points in his last 66 games and has playoff experience…He’s slumping a bit now, but from the end of January through the end of March, defenseman Cam Barker had 21 points in 24 contests.
Columbus
The Obvious: Rick Nash, Kristian Huselius, Steve Mason.
Not So Obvious: Jason Williams has 28 points in 35 games with Columbus…Antoine Vermette has 11 points in 13 games with Columbus…Since returning from a bout with mononucleosis (and playing with it), Mason has watched his GAA rise from 2.09 to 2.25. His SP has dipped from .924 to .918…
Dark Horses: Derick Brassard will play in Game 6 or Game 7 of the first round if the team’s back is against the wall. He was their top scorer early in the season…RJ Umberger had 10 goals in 17 playoff games last year for Philadelphia.
Detroit
The Obvious: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Marian Hossa, Johan Franzen, Brian Rafalski and Niklas Lidstrom.
Not So Obvious: Not only does Franzen have 14 points in his last eight games, but he had 18 points in 16 playoff games last year…Hossa had 26 points in 20 playoff games last year… Jiri Hudler has just five points in his last 19 games.
Dark Horse: Daniel Cleary had just three playoff points last year, but 12 the year before. What will we see this year? Boom or bust pick…Someone to pick up in the later rounds is Ville Leino. If any top Red Wing goes down with an injury, Leino will not only fill in for him but he will also post a point per game…Defenseman Nik Kronwall has 33 points in his last 36 games. He is a huge dark horse.
Minnesota
The Obvious: Mikko Koivu, Andrew Brunette, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Nicklas Backstrom and Marian Gaborik.
Not So Obvious: Koivu is pointless in his last seven…Antti Miettinen has just seven points in his last 24 games – do not pick…Bouchard is out with a concussion…
Dark Horses: Owen Nolan has 27 points in his last 29 games. The problem is, he gets hurt often. However, the warrior should be fine for a playoff run and makes a great pick…Defenseman Marek Zidlicky has six points in his last six games and has had a couple of tastes of postseason action.
Nashville
The Obvious: JP Dumont, Jason Arnott, Shea Weber and Steve Sullivan.
Not So Obvious: Sullivan has 23 points in his last 21 games…All of Dumont, Arnott and Weber have slowed after the 20-game mark. The team started buckling down defensively at around that point…
Dark Horses: Defenseman Ryan Suter has 13 points in his last 16 contests…Pekka Rinne has started 47 of the last 58 games and has carried this team. His 28-13-4 record with seven shutouts, 2.28 GAA and .921 SP compares closely to the higher touted fellow rookie Steve Mason…Rookie Cal O’Reilly will get a point per game when Arnott is hurt, but a point every three games when Arnott plays.
San Jose
The Obvious: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Devin Setoguchi, Joe Pavelski, Milan Michalek, Dan Boyle and Evgeni Nabokov.
Not So Obvious: Despite the negativity about Thornton’s poor playoff record, he played one postseason with broken ribs (for Boston) and in 2006 he played through an injury as well. Despite that, he has 30 points in his last 35 playoff games. Still beneath his level, but not as bad as people make it out to be…
Dark Horses: Ryane Clowe had eight points in the first round last year before running into a hot goalie in the second…I don’t know how many times you want to bang your head on the wall with this guy, but Jonathan Cheechoo has potential to put up the points. Even last spring his playoff numbers were relatively decent.
St. Louis
The Obvious: Brad Boyes, David Backes, David Perron, Patrik Berglund, Keith Tkachuk and Andy McDonald.
Not So Obvious: Paul Kariya will be back probably some time in the first round. He is the best player on this team…Perron still struggles to get ice time and it may be even worse in the postseason. His current three-game pointless streak won’t help that any.
Dark Horses: TJ Oshie plays the perfect game for the postseason. His tenacity and spark will really be noticed. He also has 14 points in his last 14 contests…Defenseman Carlo Colaiacovo has 29 points in 60 games for the Blues. Finally managing to stay healthy, he will run the power play.
Vancouver
The Obvious: Roberto Luongo, Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Mats Sundin, Ryan Kesler and Pavol Demitra.
Not So Obvious: Sundin is barely on a 55-point pace. He is a playoff warrior, but still – don’t overrate…Kesler has 19 points in his last 18 games…Demitra has a very solid playoff history, with the exception of 2008 and 2004 he has always put up decent postseason numbers.
Dark Horses: Alex Burrows has been arguably the team’s best player in the last two months. He has 25 points in his last 23 games and brings all the elements of a playoff warrior…Injuries hold Sami Salo’s point totals down, but when he plays he is a lock for a point every two games…
Pick it up today – Dobber’s Interactive Playoff Draft List. Besides getting Dobber’s own picks, you can custom set your draft lists to favor the teams you think will go deep. Win your playoff pool for just $8.99, only at DobberHockey.com. Buy Now!
Undervalued NHL Teams?
By Darryl Dobbs
Jarret Stoll has to earn the trust of poolies again. But those in leagues that track multiple categories are slowly getting back on board.
The Los Angeles Kings’ forward had a career high of 68 points in 2005-06 while with Edmonton. At the time, he was just 23 years old. To tally so many points at such a young age was quite an accomplishment and poolies pegged him as a future 80-point forward.
But then disaster struck. Stoll missed a big chunk of the following season with a concussion and although he returned to play 81 games in 2007-08, he managed just 37 points. In fantasy circles, owners see only the bottom line. The bottom line in this case was a season with 39 points followed by a season with 37.
Now a member of the Los Angeles Kings, Stoll has been a decent fantasy asset in all the categories. He’s a good bet to finish with 50 points, 75 penalty minutes, eight power-play goals and 160 shots. He could do even better than that, however, if you take a look at his last four games.
The Kings are 3-1-0 in their last four and Stoll has seen his ice time increase by about two minutes per contest. The result has been six points, 12 penalty minutes, 13 shots and a plus-5 rating in that span. He has been lining up with Dustin Brown, which isn’t a bad gig given Brown’s leadership and consistency. Kyle Calder is on the other wing.
I don’t think we’ve seen the real Stoll since 2006 and we are starting to now. This guy is a 65-point player with 70 or 75-point upside. More importantly, however, is the fact that he is one of just a handful of players in the NHL who will give you large numbers in a variety of statistics. Assuming his concussion problems are behind him, and there is no reason to believe any different, look for him to flirt with 60 points come April and then get back to that 65-plus range next year…
Meanwhile…
What is going on with Dominic Moore? The hardworking, hustling Leaf pivot has 18 points in his last 19 games. His ice time has jumped from the 15-16 minute range to 17-18 minutes per game. He even managed six shots one contest. Toronto, desperate for offense, is finding it in strange places. If Jason Blake, a similar hustling player, can top 60 points in a season (with the Isles in 2006-07), then Moore should – at the very least – be taken seriously…
I like what the Red Wings are doing with Ville Leino. Rather than thrust him in spotlight of NHL duty on the fourth line, they stick him in the minors. Rather than keep him in the minors, they bring him up and stick him on a line with Marian Hossa and Pavel Datsyuk in his first game Saturday. The Wings waited for the opportune time to bring him up and when they did they did it right. The Pittsburgh Penguins could learn from this. Despite recalling Janne Pesonen, another European star, on several occasions, the Pens have yet to play him on the wing with one of the big guys (you know who I’m talking about). At any rate, the Red Wings have given Leino a taste. Since they are likely going to lose two of Mikael Samuelsson, Johan Franzen and Hossa in the summer, look for Leino to make a big splash next campaign…
Chargers vs Vikings
By Scott Burgess
Game: Sun, Nov 4, 2007 1:00 PM ET
Stay tuned to BodogLife for odds.
The Minnesota Vikings will host the San Diego Chargers, at The Metrodome, for some Week 9 NFL action.
The Minnesota Vikings (2-5) are coming off two consecutive losses, most recently a 16-23 loss to the Eagles. QB Tavaris Jackson was out last week and may be out this week. It’s up to B.Bollinger and K.Holcomb to get a win. Unforunately they couldn’t. Bollinger was 7 for 10 for 94 YDS and Holcomb was 7 for 10 for 88 YDS with 1 TD. With the Vikings starting QB out, they’re relying on their running game. Last week their rush was held to 3.6 yards per attempt. The super fast RB A.Peterson ran for 70 YDS on 20 carries. Their only TD came from WR V.Shiancoe. The Vikings are 1-2 at home.
The San Diego Chargers (4-3) have finally found their groove. In their last three wins they’ve outscored their opponents 104-27. They beat the Texans last week 35-10. QB Phillip Rivers threw an all time low 11 passes, completing 7 and getting 3 TDs. RB L.Tomlinson didn’t fair any better running a low 90 yards on the day. The big reason they won last week was their defense, which had 4 INT, 1 TD and 1 safety. The Chargers are definitely back. The Chargers are best at stopping the runs, which is perfect considering the Vikings have a hot RB. The Chargers are 1-2 on the road.
Bottom Line: The Chargers are going to be cramming the ball down the Vikings throat. The Vikings are bad at stopping the pass and they give up the most yards of any team. They are capable of stopping the rush, but they haven’t faced Thomlinson yet. The Chargers will charge on to another WIN! To bet the NFL go to BodogLife now.
Packers vs Broncos
By Scott Burgess
Game: Mon, Oct 29, 2007 8:05 PM ET
The Green Bay Packers (+3) make their way into the Mile High State to take on the Denver Broncos (-3) for Monday Night Football.
The Denver Broncos are coming off an impressive win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. QB Jay Cutler played great completing 22 of 29 passes for 248 YDS with 2 TDs. Cutler threw up two interceptions but that didn’t bother him as he made the final drive down the field to set up the winning field goal for his kicker. A big stat on the day was the Broncos ability to convert 7 of 10 3rd downs. RB T.Henry had 17 runs for 51 YDS along with Cutlers 41 yards rushing. The Broncos utilized many of their receiving core to confuse the Steelers defense. The Broncos are 2-2 at home.
The Green Bay Packers are coming off their bye week after previously beating the Redskins. The Packers are averaging 23 points a game, which is ninth best, and they have the second best pass yard average, 273 YDS. QB Bret Favre has thrown for 1,715 YDS along with 9 TDs. One thing Favre will need to improve on is his interceptions, they’re killing the Packers. The Packers are 2-0 on the road this year.
Bottom Line: After the Broncos put on an impressive show last week against the Steelers, I’m sort of leaning towards the Broncos here. The Packers have a tough defense but it’s their offense that scares me. Favre throws interceptions when he’s pressured.
Sorry Packers, but I’m going with the Broncos! To bet the NFL go to BodogLife now.
Colts vs Jaguars
By Scott Burgess
Game: Mon, Oct 21, 2007 8:30 PM ET
BodogLife – Jaguars +3
The Jacksonville Jaguars will welcome the undefeated Indianapolis Colts to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium for Monday Night Football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars spanked the Colts last year 44-17 and will be looking to do the same this year. The Jags are coming off two wins at home. Their rushing game has been outstanding so far, they’re averaging 195 yards a game. When the Colts played Denver in week 5 they allowed 223 yards rushing, which the Jags will want to take advantage of. The Jags defense has not allowed their opponents to score more than 17 points, they’ve forced 7 turnovers in three games and they’ve held their opponents to no more than 100 yards rushing. QB David Gerrard has thrown for 1,069 yards with 6 TDs and NO interceptions. He’s the only QB with no interceptions.
The Indianapolis Colts only loss after a bye week was to the Jaguars, which is who they play after this bye week. The Colts will have to stop the Jags rush, which they managed to do last week against the Buccaneers but the Bucs were without their top two RBs. In the last two games the Colts have out scored their opponents 71-34. The Colts rushing game may be in jeopardy against this tough Jaguar defense, but they should be able to utilize their red hot TE Dallas Clark. Clark’s caught a TD pass in four consecutive games.
Call me CRAZY but i like the Jaguars in this one. The Jaguars have won their last two consecutive MNF match ups and they humiliated the Colts last year. Despite the Jags home loss to Tennessee they’ve won two consecutive games at home. The Colts have to lose sometime! To bet the NFL go to BodogLife now.
Canucks vs Kings
By Scott Burgess
Game: Fri, Oct 19, 2007 10:00 PM ET
BodogLife(Check back for odds)
The Vancouver Canucks head into La La Land to take on the L.A. Kings. The Kings are coming off a huge win against the unbeaten Minnesota Wild while the Canucks were beaten by the San Jose Sharks at home.
The L.A. Kings have a team with lots of youth and speed but they also lack in experience. The big gun for the King this year seems to be Mike Cammalleri whose got 6 goals and 2 assists. Anze Kopitar is not far behind Cammellari with 8 point. Their goaltending situation seems to be under control with the return of Jean-Sebastien Aubin. Aubin was a key part of their win over the Wild. He’s only played the one game but he looked a lot better than back up Labarbera. The Kings are having a tough time with their defense. Pretty much everyone on their D has a minus rating.
The Vancouver Canucks have finally started scoring goals but they’re also letting in more goals than they score. Goalie Roberto Luongo doesn’t seem like last year’s show stopper. He’s 3-3 with a 2.83 GAA but surprisingly he’s let in 21 goals so far in 6 games. Not Good. The Sedin line is the Canucks best weapon so far, especially on the power play. The Nucks need to start winning more face offs as well.
The Canucks are 2-0 on the road while the Kings are 1-3 at home. The Canucks are stronger on the road without the home town pressure. Expect the Canucks to WIN! To bet the NHL go to BodogLife now.
Game 5 – Red Sox vs Indians
By Scott Burgess
Game: Thurs, Oct 18, 2007 8:20 PM ET
BodogLife (Check for odds)
The Cleveland Indians have a commanding 3-1 lead, over the Boston Red Sox, in the American League Championships. Boston pitcher Tim Wakefield floundered in the 5th inning while Indians pitcher Paul Byrd shined to win 7-3 yesterday.
The Boston Red Sox will start their best pitcher Josh Beckett (RP) (22-7, 3.13 ERA). Beckett was stellar in his last trip to the mound, he pitched 6 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs and 7 strikeouts. Beckett is currently 2-0 in the playoffs this year and he’s got a 1. 20 ERA.WOW! Beckett is 11-2 on the road. The biggest disappointment for the Sox though is that their bats aren’t driving in runs. The only players knocking players around the bases are Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz.
The Cleveland Indians will start their number one starter C.C. Sabathia (LP) (19-7, 3.21 ERA). Sabathia lost his first outing to Beckett and now he’s looking for revenge. C.C. pitched 4 innings, 7 hits, 8 runs and 3 strikeouts. His biggest reason for the loss was 8 errors on the day. Sabathia is more comfortable at home with a record of 12-4 with a 3.21 ERA. His last two playoff starts he’s 1-1 with a 10.61 ERA. OUCH! The Tribe are getting hits from many various players which has been key to their success. Most notable Kenny Lofton who’s got the most playoff experience of anyone on the team.
With Beckett on the mound the Red Sox can’t go wrong. With the Red Sox closers on the mound the BoSox can go wrong. The BoSox will need a big lead before Beckett leaves the field, which they should be able to do. Sox win game 4 and it’s back to BOSTON BABY! To bet the MLB go to BodogLife now.
Undefeated NFL Teams Headbutt
The New England Patriots came calling on the Dallas Cowboys Sunday in a highly anticipated NFL showdown between two 5-0 teams. Oddsmakers had fun with this one. They knew it was going to be a good game and promised to show lots of action at the sportsbooks. The hype was intense, beginning with the sign Terrell Owens made up 3 weeks ago and posted on his locker for the media:
“Dear Reporters,
Due to the magnitude of this week’s game and high volume of questions for the Original 81 about the other 81. I will be taking all questions immediately following Sunday’s game.
Sincerely, Terrell Owens
p.s. Getcha Popcorn Ready.”
Randy Moss was the other 81 Owens was talking about, but the game didn’t really feature either Wide Receiver — Moss had 59 yards for New England while Owens had 66 for the Cowboys.
Tom Brady had a career day with 5 touchdown passes and, although the Cowboys did their best to stay in the game, the Patriots took control late in the 3rd Quarter. When the dust settled, the AFC Patriots had walloped the NFC Cowboys 48-27.
Vegas currently has New England favored 5 to 2 to win Super Bowl XLII with Indianapolis sitting in 2nd at 6 to 1. Those two teams get to play pigskin in Week 9 in a rematch of last year’s AFC Conference Game, which Indianapolis won 38-34 on their way to becoming Super Bowl XLI Champions. And you can bet there’s a good chance we’ll see another clash of the undefeateds. New England will probably be 8-0 by then while the Colts shouldn’t have a hard time arriving at game time with a 7-0 record.
SAFE BET – NHL BETTING
NHL games usually turn out the way they are supposed to. It’s learning how to bet and win on those occasions when they don’t that make you money. Here, I’ll talk about one of those times.
One of the biggest motivations for a team to win comes after they have suffered a thumping — they usually rebound with an inspired effort, and a win. So far this 2007-08 NHL season, 3 out 4 times a team got thrashed, they came back with a win. The other game resulted in a 1 goal loss, but the team still scored 5 times.
Obviously, you have to beware of games where the losing team gets to play a powerhouse team next time out. But even on those occasions, the odds will be inflated and the possible reward for taking the underdog will be huge.
Keep an eye on scores and next time you see a lop-sided loss, bet that team to rebound big time. Odds are that you will win your bet.
