Spezza and Heatley
By Darryl Dobbs
It figures. Spezza owners finally get an 82-game season out of him and he posts his worst points-per-game numbers since his first full NHL season. That means that there has never been a better time to acquire the Ottawa pivot then right now and ditto for his superstar linemate Dany Heatley.
After three consecutive campaigns of producing at least 1.21 points per game, Spezza slipped to 0.89. His 73 points was 14 points lower than his 2006-07 season in which he missed 15 games. At the young age of 25 (he turns 26 this coming Saturday), the Mississauga, Ontario native has his best years ahead of him. He is still short of his prime. So while his owner thinks of him as a 75- or 80-point player with a lot of upside, you can capitalize on that. The fact of the matter is, he is a 90-point player with upside and you’ve just witnessed his downside.
All players have a year or two like it and the real stars bounce back nicely. Joe Sakic had a bad run of two years. In 1996-97 and 1997-98, he had injury-plagued seasons of 74 and 63 points with the latter number even falling short of his games played that year (64). It was hard to believe that Sakic would peak at the age of around 28, but some poolies did that very thing. The expectations were lowered to that of a 70- or 75-point player, but in 1998-99 he had 96 points. He also cleared 100 on two occasions after that.
Spezza will be the same way. When you follow a player’s statistics closely, like die-hard poolies do, you are following them day-to-day and week-to-week. To see a player have an entire season go bad, it’s only natural to have your expectations dip. This is where the more casual fantasy owner has an advantage. That owner sees the year-to-year numbers and still sees a player who will get 90 points with potential for more. Sometimes you have to take a step back and look at the big picture. Pretend you didn’t live through Spezza’s ups (he had a couple) and downs (he had a lot) from last campaign and take 2008-09 as the exception and not the rule. If it helps, just think of how he had 33 points in 34 games under the new coach. Still sub-par for him, but much better.
Dany Heatley is in the same boat. The 28-year-old had three straight campaigns with a 1.15 points-per-game average or better before slipping to 0.71. As Spezza goes, so goes Heatley and you need to after him with the same eagerness that you would go after a 100-point player. Don’t overpay, because now is the time to get him at a discount, but put in the effort – give his owner a call and try and make something happen.
That means that if you can get Spezza or Heatley by giving up a player who beat them in scoring this year, then do so. I’m talking about Rick Nash, Alexander Semin, Mike Richards, Martin St.Louis, Marc Savard or even Jeff Carter – Spezza and Heater will top all of them in scoring in three of the next four seasons. The only exceptions would be any player in the Top 9 scoring this season, or Joe Thornton. As far as I’m concerned, any other player in the Top 30 (Spezza finished 31st) should be swapped for one of these guys in keeper leagues that count strictly points, not taking into account positions. It may seem crazy now, but you won’t regret it.
Eastern Conference Playoff Dark Horses Part: 2009
By Darryl Dobbs
Here are some fellows from the Eastern Conference worth a look-see in your upcoming playoff pool draft.
Boston Bruins
The Obvious: Marc Savard, David Krejci, Phil Kessel, Tim Thomas, Dennis Wideman, Zdeno Chara, Michael Ryder.
Not So Obvious: Krejci has just 13 points in his last 26 games…After just two points in his first six games as a Bruin, Recchi has six in his last four…
Dark Horses: Chuck Kobasew has eight points in his last 10 games. When healthy, he has shown to be quite productive this season; Milan Lucic has all the tools to be that playoff warrior that becomes a legend. If the B’s play 15 postseason games, Lucic could get 10 or 12 points.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Obvious: Ray Whitney, Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu, Rod Brind’Amour, Cam Ward, Sergei Samsonov.
Not So Obvious: Samsonov has 44 points in the last 58 games, which is a 62-point pace…Brind’Amour found his magic anti-aging juice around the trade deadline day. He has 16 points in his last 12 games…
Dark Horses: Matt Cullen had 26 points in 25 games prior to his lower body injury. He’ll be fine for the playoffs and could be back in that form; Joe Corvo has 10 points in his last 11 games. His surge coincides with the rest of the team finding their offensive mojo. So which came first, the chicken or the egg? Well – if both are producing, then feel free to draft the egg; Erik Cole is a dark horse only in the sense that he has 37 points this season. Don’t overrate him, however. Even on the Hurricanes, he is not the point-per-game player he looked to be before all his injuries. In 15 games he’ll get you 10 points and no more.
Florida Panthers
The Obvious: Stephen Weiss, David Booth, Cory Stillman, Nathan Horton, Jay Bouwmeester and Tomas Vokoun.
Not So Obvious: Weiss has 38 points in the last 43 contests…Booth had streaks of 16 in 11 and 11 in six. That means that in the other 49 games he had just 24 points. That screams “streaky”. So he’ll either be hot in the playoffs or he’ll be a huge bust – be careful…After 65 points in 45 games last year in junior, Michal Frolik had just six points in nine playoff contests – and was a minus-4.
Dark Horses: Goaltender Craig Anderson has started and won two games in a row. If the Panthers get into the playoffs on his back then he’ll backstop them once they get there, as well; Gregory Campbell will probably be used to shut down the opposition’s big guns, but he is a great candidate to be this year’s Sami Pahlsson-type and post eight points in 15 games.
Montreal Canadiens
The Obvious: Andrei Markov, Alexei Kovalev, Saku Koivu, Andrei Kostitsyn, Alex Tanguay.
Not So Obvious: Since the minor Kostitsyn controversy that was all over the Montreal papers, Sergei played his way back to the American League (and is pointless since his recall) and Andrei has stumbled with just two points in 14 games. Steer clear of both…You can kid yourself into believing that Jaroslav Halak is a better goaltender than Carey Price, or that he has earned the top job. Doesn’t matter, regardless of the level of truth of those statements. The Habs will be riding Price every second they can…Robert Lang’s return will hurt Tomas Plekanec, who put up horrible numbers while Lang was in the lineup but strong numbers when Lang was hurt, so watch for that.
Dark Horses: Lang may not return until the second round, or perhaps he’ll catch some first round games. Regardless, he led the team in scoring before he suffered the injury to his Achilles tendon; Since joining the Habs for his second stint, Mathieu Schneider has 13 points in 18 contests.
New Jersey Devils
The Obvious: Zach Parise, Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner, Travis Zajac, Brian Gionta and Martin Brodeur.
Not So Obvious: Brendan Shanahan has just eight points in his last 22 games. Regardless of his track record, stay away…This is a two-line team, so barring an injury to one of their top six, you won’t see points from the likes of Shanny, John Madden, Bobby Holik or Brian Rolston.
Dark Horse: Defenseman Paul Martin has 14 points in his last 17 games and is the man the Devil’s turn to run the power play.
NY Rangers
The Obvious: Nikolai Zherdev, Nik Antropov, Scott Gomez, Chris Drury, Michal Rozsival, Henrik Lundqvist.
Not So Obvious: Drury has 10 points in 12 games since Antropov joined the squad…Markus Naslund has just four points in those same 12 games. Another big name who you should steer clear of…Rozsival had just one point in 11 games prior to his lower body injury…
Dark Horses: Ryan Callahan is on fire and he plays with the hustle and spark needed in the postseason. He has 10 points in his last 11 games; Sean Avery is playing very well in his return to New York. He has nine points in 12 games.
Philadelphia Flyers
The Obvious: Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, Scott Hartnell, Daniel Briere, Kimmo Timonen.
Not So Obvious: Five times this year Joffrey Lupul has gone through stretches of at least three games without a point…Mike Knuble has just eight points in his last 17 games.
Dark Horses: Martin Biron has started 10 of the last 11 games and won seven of them. He heats up every season at the right time; Claude Giroux will be a prolific producer in the NHL and he is seeing plenty of ice time right now. It’s very feasible that he puts up numbers at least as good as what Hartnell can do.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Obvious: Chris Kunitz, Bill Guerin, Petr Sykora, Marc-Andre Fleury, Sergei Gonchar. Oh, and some guys named Sid and Evgeni.
Not So Obvious: Miroslav Satan has seven points in six AHL games. The salary cap will keep him out of the league during the regular season. It won’t be a factor for the postseason…Since the trade deadline, Sykora has one point in eight games. That’s the impact of adding Kunitz and Guerin.
Dark Horses: Kris Letang has eight points in 11 games. Clearing Ryan Whitney off the roster is really helping his numbers; Jordan Staal frequently plays 20 minutes a game and is out there during crunch time.
Washington Capitals
The Obvious: Anyone named Alex. Also Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, Brooks Laich, Viktor Kozlov Jose Theodore.
Not So Obvious: Tomas Fleischmann and Eric Fehr have shown that they can produce, but both are immersed in a horrible slump and not worth taking unless a key injury strikes the roster…Michael Nylander is not the same player anymore. Just stay away…Laich has nine points in his last 10 games. He was hot down the stretch last year as well, and he carried that into the postseason.
Dark Horses: Sergei Fedorov still produces in spurts and occasionally the coach throws him on a line with Alexander Ovechkin. If you like the Caps to go deep, he’d be a decent pick in the final round; Fleischmann has just one point in 17 games during his horrible slump. To look at it in a more positive light – he had 31 points in 50 games before that, so the potential is there.
The Columbus Dilemma
By Darryl Dobbs
One of the most confusing and frustrating NHL teams in the minds of fantasy owners is the Columbus Blue Jackets. Confusing, because they have a pile of talent in the system and you aren’t exactly certain how things will shake out for them. Frustrating because a defensive system, as well as historically questionable treatment of the young guns.
Not to say the treatment is right or wrong. But from a fantasy standpoint, it is frustrating and confusing.
The biggest reason fantasy owners temper their expectations on some of the promising youngsters is what happened to Gilbert Brule. Here is a sixth overall pick in an NHL draft, coming off impressive junior numbers and an equally impressive cup of coffee in the NHL as an 18 year old (four points in seven games). He made the team as a 19 year old, but saw such few minutes that he posted just 19 points. The following year, it was less ice time and even few points (nine).
Then there is Rick Nash. He is an NHL star by many standards and a superstar by some. He is the heart and soul of this Columbus team and after seeing him on the world stage, you can only come away believing that he has that rare ability to top 95 points some day.
So why is his career high 69?
By the end of this season, Nash should sit at around 77 points. So after six NHL seasons, he will still be searching for that first 80-point campaign. Would he have already reached that plateau on the Kings? The Coyotes? The Senators? You could name all of the other 29 NHL teams and wonder how many more (or fewer) points he could be tallying in a single campaign.
Fantasy owners are hopeful, but they are not 100 percent secure in the young Blue Jackets. Nikita Filatov, Derick Brassard and Jakub Voracek are the Big 3 prospects. All three have the potential to at least flirt with 90 points. Filatov could probably give 100 a healthy run. But on this team? Within the next five years?
The good news for Voracek owners is that he has nearly twice the points that Brule had as a 19 year old and although he is seeing just 12:39 ice time per game, it is actually closer to 14 minutes per game as the season wears on. The good news for Filatov owners is that the team is trying to take things slow with him. Perhaps if they did this with Brule, he would be 65-point player by now.
All we can say for sure is that things are very promising, especially with the way Antoine Vermette is playing since joining the team, as well as Kristian Huselius’ potential whenever his team (be it Columbus or Calgary) ices two solid scoring lines and the focus is shifted off of him. Potentially, Vermette, Nash, Huselius, Brassard, Filatov and Voracek could lead a potent offense, with R.J. Umberger as a nice supplement to that. But just temper your expectations a little – particularly on the timeline…
Meanwhile…
The Toronto line of Mikhail Grabovski, Alexei Ponikarovsky and Nikolai Kulemin has been on fire lately, combining for 21 points in the last four games. The three hail from Belarus (but born in Germany), Ukraine and Russia respectively, and there is some potential that this line could remain together (as much as line combos remain together in today’s NHL) for this year and next. Either way, all three will see improved numbers next campaign…
Colorado’s Paul Stastny is having a miserable time of things. After making a huge splash as a rookie, he has really faltered. Prior to his appendectomy in January of 2008, Stastny had 127 points in 128 career games. Since then, he has 61 points in 74 regular season and playoff games and has missed time with a knee injury, a foot injury and a broken arm. He’ll bounce back, but one wonders by how much, given the declining offense around him in Colorado.
Ten Depth Guys to Stick On Your Team
By Darryl Dobbs
These players won’t be on any roto-team’s top nine, but they will look good in that 10, 11 or 12 slot up front, or the five and six slot on the blue line. In perusing all the players that are 27 percent owned (or lower) in Yahoo!, some interesting names crop up. Here are the ones for you to consider for the stretch run…
First, the “shame on you” section. Steve Sullivan, Tim Connolly, Tom Gilbert and Andy McDonald are owned in less than a third of all Yahoo! leagues. It’s clear that the Sullivan of old is back, which makes him a top center. Twelve points and a plus-8 in his last nine games. Shame on you for not picking him up! Defenseman Gilbert has 11 points in his last 12 contests – shame on you! Connolly may get hurt a lot, but if you can easily switch him back out of your lineup there is absolutely no reason why he should not be on your roster. He has been healthy for the last 26 games, or haven’t you noticed? Shame on you! McDonald was hurt, but now he is back and hasn’t missed a beat – still a point per game. Shame on you!
Now let’s get to the 10 guys you should grab now for what they offer you down the stretch. They may be “depth” guys, but they’ll probably out-produce some of your so-called stars. A lot of players are classified as centermen – but that should not stop you from snagging them. In fact, when you are in that situation, deal one of your “big name” pivots for a good winger, and then replace him with a centerman I have listed here. You won’t lose out in that position, yet you will improve on the wing.
Without further ado:
10. Claude Giroux, Philadelphia. Now that Daniel Briere is out again, Giroux will get back to what he was doing prior to Briere’s return. Projection down the stretch: 15 points in 18 games, even, 10 PIMs, 38 shots.
9. Ryan Kesler, Vancouver. The streaky Kesler is now regularly logging over 20 minutes per contest and at worst he’ll still give you steady numbers in the other categories. Projection down the stretch: 15 points in 18 games, plus-4, 14 PIMs, 55 shots.
8. Sean Bergenheim, N.Y. Islanders. Lots of opportunity on the Island for him now and he has always had the ability in multitude of categories. Projection down the stretch: 15 points in 17 games, even, 18 PIMs, 56 shots.
7. Patrice Bergeron, Boston. Excuse him for taking a few months to get rolling, after missing most of last season. But the Bergeron of old is back with nine points in last 10 games. Projection down the stretch: 15 points in 16 games, plus-5, 4 PIMs, 49 shots.
6. Maxim Afinogenov, Buffalo. He has two points in two games since the deadline and is back to his old self. Granted, he could be back in the doghouse, but if not you know what he is capable of. Projection down the stretch: 14 points in 17 games, minus-1, 10 PIMs, 51 shots.
5. Stephen Weiss, Florida. He has 40 points in his last 46 games. The 25-year-old has finally arrived. Projection down the stretch: 16 points in his last 16 games, plus-5, 8 PIMs, 47 shots.
4. Antoine Vermette, Columbus. A new team and new possibilities. Vermette was turning his season around, but now he is entrenched in the top six. Projection down the stretch: 16 points in 16 games, plus-3, 12 PIMs, 49 shots.
3. Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay. Everyone was grabbing this guy in September when they shouldn’t have. Nobody is grabbing him now, when they should. The future star has 10 points in his last 10 games and seeing first-line ice time. Projection down the stretch: 17 points in 16 games, minus-1, 8 PIMs, 47 shots.
2. Tuomo Ruutu, Carolina. It’s hard to imagine that he is in just 15% of all Yahoo! pools, with 15 points in his last 14 games and coming off a five-point game. His PIMs are low because Carolina has given up the least power-plays, so it’s a team system. Still, he puts up his share. Projection down the stretch: 14 points in 15 games, plus-2, 14 PIMs and 58 shots.
1. Steve Ott, Dallas. Looks like a lot of Yahoo! managers still haven’t heard the latest – Steve Ott is a fantasy stud. He has 24 points in his last 23 games, with 45 PIMs and is a plus-9 in that span. Seriously – trade your “Joe Thornton” type of player right now for a Daniel Alfredsson type of winger and pick up Ott. You will win out in both positions. Projection down the stretch: 17 points in 17 games, plus-4, 40 PIMs and 38 shots.
Honorable mentions: Matt Lombardi, Phoenix; Ales Kotalik, Edmonton; Eric Fehr, Washington, Michal Frolik, Florida; R.J. Umberger, Columbus; Matt Stajan, Toronto, Andrew Ebbett, Anaheim.
Change of Scenery – Trade Deadline Pt. 2 of 2
By Darryl Dobbs
Last week, we took at a look at the top trade candidates in the East and their fantasy impact. This week, let’s take a look at the Western Conference – where teams five through 15 are closer than I’ve ever seen them.
In fantasy hockey, a player being moved to a new NHL team is often good news for the fantasy owner. A fresh start or a likely shot as a star’s linemate – or both – is just what the doctor ordered for a slumping player.
Here are the most interesting players in the West who could be moved March 4, and what to expect from them if they are…
Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota – Despite solid statistics, young backup Josh Harding has a record of just 2-7-1. Since that record doesn’t tell the whole story, the Wild consider the youngster to have the ability to get in some starts down the stretch. Backstrom is a UFA this summer, so the team may move him to improve their future, while at the same time hope Harding keeps them in contention. Still, it is a million dollar industry and not all teams would take a chance on extra playoff revenue like that. On a new team, Backstrom would play in a weaker system, so his stats will go the wrong way. Odds of being dealt: 25%.
Marc-Andre Bergeron, Minnesota – Another Wild candidate to be moved, Bergeron could actually go regardless of whether they buy or sell – simply because of the numbers game. Kurtis Foster is back now and the team already has offensive pop from the blueline in Brent Burns and Marek Zidlicky. Bergeron’s value will go up or down depending on the team he ends up on. You saw his role in Anaheim last year, and it wasn’t pretty. But a team like Buffalo could really use a QB with his skill. Odds of being dealt: 60%.
Chicago Blackhawks’ prospects – This team has a ton of really great prospects in the pipeline and they already have a young, skilled and deep NHL roster. They don’t seem to want to accommodate Petri Kontiola’s trade demands – yet – but someone will move for a rental. Jack Skille is another candidate to move. They also have three promising goaltenders in the system – Corey Crawford, Antti Niemi and Josh Unice. Odds of one being dealt: 95%.
Erik Cole, Edmonton – His contract is running out and a lot of teams could use a hard-hitting second-line winger. Don’t point to his playoff and Stanley Cup experience, because – come on – he played two games. But still, he would bring the Oilers a decent return and moving him wouldn’t exactly take them out of contention. On a deep, elite team his value will drop as he will man the third line. On a borderline playoff team, he could see a nice pop if placed on the first line. Odds of being dealt: 50%
Marian Gaborik, Minnesota – His contract is up and he is not thrilled with Minnesota’s system. The Wild are likely to move him for some pipeline replenishment. When healthy, he is one of the greats of the game and it is scary to see how he would do on a team that opens it up. Key words – “when healthy”. Odds of being dealt: 80%
Olli Jokinen, Phoenix – Typically when teams “sell” at the deadline, they move out expensive vets and bring in prospects and young NHLers. So what happens when a team already has an abundance of those? For that reason, you may not see Jokinen or Ed Jovanovski moved. If you do, Jokinen can’t do any worse. A change of scenery would be a plus, no question. Odds of being dealt: 30%
Nikolai Khabibulin, Chicago – The Blackhawks have two No.1 goaltenders and three pretty good prospect goaltenders. Rather than invest so much money in goaltending, the thinking is that the ‘Hawks will deal Khabibulin. Don’t be too sure on that – you can’t buy this kind of insurance. If move, though, it can only help owners to have him play every game instead of split time. Odds of being dealt: 40%.
Jordan Leopold, Colorado – The Avs are fading fast, Leopold is finally healthy and his contract is up this year. Throw in the fact that the market for puck-moving defenders is a strong one, and he’s as good as gone. Leopold will thrive as a No.2 PP guy alongside an elite No.1. If he has a guy like Bryan McCabe at the other end of the blue line, that is the type of situation that would give him fantasy value. Odds of being dealt: 65%.
Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim – The Ducks are in a dogfight and they will lose the dogfight if they trade one or both of their big guns on the back end. However, rumors of him being traded to New Jersey won’t die. The Devils are a different team then when he was last there, so his fantasy value will make a sideways move if he goes there. Odds of being dealt: 45%.
Chris Pronger, Anaheim – He still has another year on his contract, but if the return is right, the Ducks could move him. The arrival of Ryan Whitney makes this just a little more likely. Similar to Niedermayer, on any other team Pronger holds the same high value. Only one of Nieds or Pronger will be dealt, if at all. Odds of being dealt: 40%.
Ryan Smyth, Colorado – Teams value his leadership and scoring punch, but because he is locked in for several more years yet the Avs will wait for the right offer. On a weak team, his value rises. On a strong team it drops. He was a point-a-game player with Paul Stastny out of the lineup, but barely a 50-point guy when he was in the lineup. Odds of being dealt: 50%.
Steve Sullivan, Nashville – His contract is up and he is starting to show some of his old form. The back is so far so good, too. The Preds need a playoff spot, so they probably won’t sell. But if they do, he is a great candidate to go. On a good team, he’ll be buried, but on a similar team he’ll be every bit as good as he is on the Preds and probably even better under a looser system. Odds of being dealt: 15%.
Keith Tkachuk, St. Louis – The Blues have already pulled off this trick and they’ll do it again. Maybe we’ll even see Tkachuk just head back there in the summer. A trade will probably hurt his value, because his situation in St. Louis is a good one. Odds of being dealt: 80%.
DobberHockey.com will have the fantasy impact of every trade within minutes of it being announced on March 4. It is a “must stop” for all fantasy owners who have their own trade deadlines to worry about.
Change of Scenery – Trade Deadline Pt. 1 of 2
In fantasy hockey, a player being moved to a new NHL team is often good news for the fantasy owner. A fresh start or a likely shot as a star’s linemate – or both – is just what the doctor ordered for a slumping player. In the Western Conference, as of Saturday, eight points separated fourth and fifth…yet only nine points separated fifth and 15th. Since it’s tough to nail down which teams will be buyers and which teams will be sellers in the West, we’ll take a look at the Eastern Conference first.
Here are the most interesting players in the East who could be moved March 4, and what to expect from them if they are…
Nik Antropov, Toronto – He has never played more than 72 games in a season, but is on pace for 82. His production is on pace for 62, but as a second-line player on any good team he could produce 70. A lot of teams could use second line depth, such as Florida, who have recent trade ties with the Leafs, and Vancouver and Anaheim, who have ties to Brian Burke. Odds of being dealt: 95%.
Jay Bouwmeester, Florida – Possibly the best player available at the deadline, JBo is currently a member of a playoff team. Will Florida deal him? If not, they risk losing him for nothing. The price will be high – a team in the playoffs will not be eager to sell. A new team is a definite plus for his production – his best years are still ahead of him. Odds of being dealt: 60%.
Bill Guerin, NY Islanders – He has slowed down to a 50-point player, but teams will be interested in his experience and they would want his scoring touch for their third line. On a new team, his production would slip a little. Odds of being dealt: 70%.
Tomas Kaberle, Toronto – He could go to any one of 10 teams on his list that he apparently submitted to GM Brian Burke. However, Burke thinks that he won’t move him, but that could just be posturing. His 44 points are far below where he would be on another team. Odds of being dealt: 45%.
Alexei Kovalev, Montreal – The Habs may have had enough of his moodiness, but after his warm reception and excellent production Saturday, things could change. Either that or he just drove his price up. Kovalev could go up or down, depending on which team he ends up on. He normally doesn’t perform well in the spotlight, but as a secondary character on a strong cast he is a point per game, easily. Odds of being dealt: 45%
Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay – I don’t think he’ll move and the rumors have died off, but I would be remiss not to mention one of the best players in the game. If Lecavalier goes, it will probably be to Montreal. It doesn’t matter where, really – he’ll put up the numbers anywhere. Odds of being dealt: 10%
Kari Lehtonen, Atlanta – TSN is reporting interest from the Flyers. Lehtonen is a talented goalie who will put up great numbers with a good team in front of him. However, a change of scenery won’t help his fragility any – unless he goes to a high altitude state like Colorado where the air density could help him heal quicker. Okay, that was a joke – I have no idea if that is true so MD’s please don’t send me emails! The point is, his numbers will improve, but his games played will not. Odds of being dealt: 25%.
Michal Nylander, Washington – He makes $5.5 million next season and $3 million the season after. That makes his cap his just over $2 million per year over the next four years if a team bought him out this summer. With that in mind, a team could take a chance on him and know that if they had to resort to a buyout the cost would not be too terrible. However, the Caps would have to bring in salary in return. Dustin Byfuglien from the Blackhawks ($3 million per year) would fit that bill. Odds of being dealt: 35%.
Martin St. Louis, Tampa Bay – It may make more sense for the Penguins to carry the $5.25 cap hit of a star winger like St. Louis as opposed to the $4 million cap hit of Ryan Whitney. It also would make sense the Lightning to free up that $1.25 in salary and add a top rearguard. Obviously, St. Louis going to the Penguins would be gold for his owners. On any other team, it would probably help as well. Odds of being dealt: 50%.
James van Riemsdyk, Philadelphia – One of the best prospects outside of the NHL is available because the Flyers have a great team locked up for the long term and Claude Giroux and Andreas Nodl ready to get top six ice time on 20 other NHL teams. TSN thinks the Flyers could use JVR to get Lehtonen. He will be a star no matter what team he plays for, but for a weak time like Atlanta he could give you the numbers much sooner. Odds of being dealt: 20%.
Antoine Vermette, Ottawa – The Sens would have loved to dish Vermette to another team two months ago, but he was slumping so badly that no team wanted to give up anything for him. Now that he has 21 points in his last 28 games he will garner interest once again. However, the team’s acquisition of Mike Comrie and Chris Campoli indicates that they are not lying down just yet. But they probably will by March 4. Odds of being dealt: 35%.
Ryan Whitney, Pittsburgh – The Pens love what they have seen from Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski. Sergei Gonchar has another year on his contract. They need cap room due to the signings of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal and Marc-Andre Fleury. Whitney is the most expendable and he could bring in a top winger in return. He is a potential 75-point player in Pittsburgh, but a potential 60-point player on another team. Odds of being dealt: 40%.
DobberHockey.com will have the fantasy impact of every trade within minutes of it being announced on March 4. It is a “must stop” for all fantasy owners who have their own trade deadlines to worry about.
Cleverly Adding Peverley
By Darryl Dobbs
Had he slipped through waivers, there was a better than even chance that Rich Peverley would find himself to be a career minor leaguer, consistently in the Top 20 in AHL scoring. He would join the likes of Jason Krog, Darren Haydar, Keith Aucoin – the list goes on when speaking of AHL superstars who never really cracked the NHL.
Instead, the Nashville Predators failed to sneak him through waivers to their farm team in Milwaukee. The Atlanta Thrashers claimed him.
In the last few days, he could have picked up four points in three games for Milwaukee while centering the likes of Patric Hornqvist and Hugh Jessiman. Instead, he has six points in three games for Atlanta while centering the likes of Ilya Kovalchuk and Bryan Little.
Nice.
The 26-year-old former college star was never drafted. He went from Junior B’s Kitchener Dutchmen to Junior A’s Milton Merchants before joining St. Lawrence University in 2000. That hockey program boasts such notables as … John Zeiler (L.A.). Okay, not all that notable. Which makes his accomplishment all that more impressive.
Peverley’s calling card is his speed and opponents have difficulty keeping up with that. Even worse for them, they have to focus on Kovalchuk so they are stuck in a catch-22. If they focus any effort on keeping up with Peverley, then that’s all the room Kovalchuk needs to get open. Five of Peverley’s six Atlanta points are assists.
That kind of success buys him more opportunity to keep it up. With each game that he posts a point, Peverley is awarded two more on the big line. The odds are better than 50-50 that he’ll continued to produce at a 65-point pace. For him to fail now would require three consecutive pointless games in conjunction with an embarrassing plus/minus.
If that happens, then maybe he will join Haydar, Krog et al. after all.
But for now, Peverley makes a great No.3 center pickup in all roto-league formats for at least two weeks, with decent odds of posting another 25 to 30 points in the final 36 games and finish with 40 to 45 points in all.
For now, his keeper-league value should be kept conservative – like that of a 50-point player with upside. He will need to enter October on Kovalchuk’s line before warranting an upgrade in his fantasy value…
Meanwhile…
Todd White, now on the second line, has two points in the two games that Peverley has posted six points. White has 23 points in his last 19 games and has only missed the scoresheet twice in that span, but the situation bears watching, given the reduction in ice time (Peverley is seeing two more minutes per game)…
Phil Kessel has missed three games so far with mononucleosis, so you would think that Blake Wheeler would fill that void nicely as he moves up the depth chart. However, Wheeler has just one point in those contests – and one of those games he saw the second most ice time of his career. Meanwhile, the other scoring right winger Chuck Kobasew has a point in each of those three contests…
Robert Lang is sure benefiting from centering the two Kostitsyn brothers in Montreal. While Andrei and Sergei light the lamp, Lang has 11 points in his last seven contests…
Fantasy Hockey- Dobber’s Stock Market Tips
By Darryl Dobbs
The title says it all. So without further ado…
Sell High
Zach Parise, New Jersey – Before I get all the angry emails, let me preface this by saying that Parise is a great player who is only scratching the surface of his talent. He will regularly fall in that 85- to 95-point range year in and year out. He is in his fourth NHL season so this breakout is expected. However, he is currently on pace for 101 points. If you expect him to flirt with 95 points this season, you are mistaken. He’ll do that in his prime – which is in about three or four years. Look for 85 points – he tends to slow down in the second half given the workload in the NHL versus college. That means 40 points in 45 games, give or take.
Simon Gagne, Philadelphia – If you were smart, you would have traded him two or three weeks ago. Now that he is injured (shoulder) it has driven home a bit of reality on fantasy owners. His concussion problems will always be an issue and while Gagne’s owner was enjoying his resurgence, he or she was also ignoring the white elephant in the room. Gagne is fragile and could be one big hit away from producing zero points in zero games for you going forward. He is still a Top 20 scorer right now, so let someone else deal with it and get the good return that you can.
Mikko Koivu, Minnesota – His talent is underrated, but his upside is probably 75 points. So seeing the younger Koivu sit at a point per game would have my trigger finger pretty itchy. You are already seeing a slowdown with this guy, as he has eight points in his last 12 contests.
Devin Setoguchi, San Jose – The 22-year-old has an upside of about 85 points and in his first full NHL season he is on pace for 81. Too soon for this. If you act quickly, your fellow GM’s may not have noticed that Setoguchi has just seven points in his last 11 games. He should finish with around 70 this campaign.
Todd White, Atlanta – Do I really have to explain this one? Players who are in their mid-30s and have career highs of 60 points do not suddenly produce into the 70s. In his last four seasons, White has averaged 13 games missed. He’ll miss at least five or six this year and his production will slowdown. I think 27 points in 33 games going forward sounds about right. That would give him a new career high of 62.
Martin Havlat, Chicago – If you think this guy will play 82 games this year, then I have got a bridge that you may be interested in buying. The numbers: 73, 72, 67, 68, 18, 56, 35. Those are his games played in his career. His shoulder is being held to his body by a piece of gum and some spit. Any game now he could be out for the season.
Buy Low
Kyle Okposo, NY Islanders – He is on pace for 30 points and I still believe he will make it to 45. That would require 33 points in 42 games. He has seven in his last six, so the rookie already showing signs.
Robert Nilsson, Edmonton – He is one of those players who responds to healthy scratches. Since he was scratched, he has two points in five games and is a plus-6. Those are modest numbers, but he is clicking on a line with Sam Gagner and Erik Cole – each of whom also make decent “buy low” candidates. Nilsson is on pace for 28 points, but like Okposo I think he will flirt with 45.
Michael Frolik, Florida – Fourteen of his 16 points have come in his last 16 games, so although his pace says “36″, he is actually at almost a point per game. With 44 games left, I think he could get 36 to 41 points, meaning he will finish with 52 to 57.
Andy McDonald, St. Louis – He is a week to 10 days away from practicing with the Blues and should be in action before the All-Star break. He was over a point per game before breaking his leg and I don’t see him slowing down any. His owner would be sour on him, with this injury, so jump on that.
Nathan Horton, Florida – C’mon, he’s not going to finish with 45 points. Be realistic. He needed a few games to get his timing back and going forward I can see a good 35 points or more. That would put him in the 55- to 60-points area.
Tomas Fleischmann, Washington – He had 13 points in 17 games prior to his bout with pneumonia and I noticed his responsibility increasing. He is due back on Tuesday, so I would anticipate that he will notch 33 points in his final 42 games – giving him 52 on the season.
Sergei Samsonov, Carolina – He is on pace for 43 points, but the 30-year-old is back to his old self. He has 18 points in his last 22 games, which translates to about 67 points. He’ll get 35 going forward and finish with 56. That’s not great, but much better than what he started at.
More next week!
Beantown Loves Their Special K(s)
By Darryl Dobbs
It’s certainly a lot more complicated than this, but a macro look at a successful hockey team tells us that it has strong goaltending, a stud defenseman four star forwards and strong secondary scoring. Heading into 2008-09, the Boston Bruins had Zdeno Chara as their defenseman, Marc Savard as a star forward, and they hoped that Patrice Bergeron could recover from is concussion to be that second big scorer. The B’s also hoped that the tandem of Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez would keep them in enough games to squeak into the postseason.
Two of their kids becoming sensations so quickly was not something the Bruins could have counted on, but they’ll take it. And so will their fantasy owners.
David Krejci was supposed to be their “third-line” center behind Savard and Bergeron. Phil Kessel was a promising young player without a clear role. That was in September. Today, these two kids and fellow youngster Milan Lucic are the Boston Bruins.
In fact, Savard – a $5 million player who has twice topped 95 points – has just seven points in his last 10 contests, while the so-called third-line center has 16 in that span. Going back further, Krejci has 20 in his last 12 games. Ice time? He doesn’t need any. Four times this season Krejci has played fewer than 15 minutes in a game. He totaled six points in those contests.
The 22-year-old was a standout for Gatineau of the QMJHL, he was a standout for Providence of the AHL and now he is a standout for Boston of the NHL. I can’t think of one player in the league who I have bumped up their upside so frequently – as a prospect, I had Krejci’s ceiling at 65 points. By the end of 2006-07 I bumped it up to 70. After the way he ended 2007-08 (nine in his last seven regular season games, plus another five points in seven playoff tilts), I pushed his upside to 75.
Counting the postseason, Krejci has 43 points in his last 44 games. That’s more than half the season, so it’s time to give him his due – this guy can get 90 points. I would say 80 to 85 is a more likely career high for him, but 90 is feasible.
With Phil Kessel, the expectations were much higher. At times in 2005 and into 2006 he was considered the top prospect in his draft class. He ended up being selected fifth overall, but his stock hadn’t really fallen a whole lot. He made the team as an 18-year-old, but his 29 points disappointed poolies who had hopes of an immediate impact. His second year saw an improvement to 37 points, but fantasy owners were still unhappy – in many cases he was dealt or dropped in leagues across North America.
Heading into this campaign, fantasy owners didn’t even know what position he was playing. Center? Left wing? Right wing? Would he be on the top line? The third line?
Patience wins keeper leagues and experienced poolies know that these players need a few years – usually three to five – to gain in strength and experience. It’s Kessel’s third season and he has 31 points in 30 games playing right wing on the top line with Savard and Lucic.
Kessel and Krejci will be big names in fantasy hockey and it starts now…
Meanwhile…
If you are looking for an under the radar winger who can give you two points for every three games, you should take a flyer on Joakim Lindstrom. The Coyotes picked him up from Anaheim a couple of weeks ago in a little-talked-about deal, but the 25-year-old is blessed with a lot of skill. He has nothing left to prove in the AHL and has not had great opportunities at the NHL level. The knock on him has been his size, but so far in Phoenix he is clicking nicely with rookie Mikkel Boedker. Lindstrom has three points in three games so far…
B.J. Crombeen has had an excellent season so far. First he unexpectedly made the Stars out of training camp and then later, when the team tried to sneak him to the AHL through waivers he was scooped up by St. Louis. He has eight points in 13 games for the Blues, but seven in his last five. He also has 26 penalty minutes. There is nothing in his history to suggest that he could ever get more than 40 points in a season, but he does have the pedigree to support 150 penalty minutes. Sean Avery (who is likely out of the NHL for this season) could recoup much of their losses by scooping up Crombeen. Forty points and 150 PIMs is close to the 45 and 250 that Avery would have provided.
Patrik Berglund – Calder Candidate
By Darryl Dobbs
After a sluggish start, rookie Patrik Berglund has shot up the rookie scoring charts and emerged as a legitimate contender for the Calder Trophy.
When St. Louis drafted him 25th overall in 2006, it was overshadowed by the fact that the team also drafted defenseman Erik Johnson with the top pick. Pundits agreed even then, though, that Berglund was one of the 15 best offensive forwards that were available and that potentially he could be remembered as the one of the top three.
Coming from a stacked draft that included Jonathan Toews, Jordan Staal, Nicklas Backstrom, Kyle Okposo, Peter Mueller, Phil Kessel and Bryan Little, Berglund is finally starting to get noticed. The attitude has always been there – the Swede spent the summer in North America and worked on his main weakness – strength.
After just three points in his first eight NHL contests, the Blues suddenly really needed him to step up. Injuries to Paul Kariya and fellow rookie T.J. Oshie pushed the 20-year-old Berglund up to the No.1 slot up the middle. And he delivered.
With the added ice time and responsibility, Berglund has posted 13 points in 12 contests to go with a plus-8 rating. He has moved up to fourth place in the rookie scoring race with 16 points and is playing hotter than any of the three guys ahead of him. With Oshie now back in the lineup, Berglund’s ice time has not taken a hit at all and it is also unlikely to change when Kariya returns. He has always reminded analysts of another tall and lanky Swede, but his play of late is really conjuring up Mats Sundin images.
All rookies go through their cold spells and Berglund will be no different, but don’t be shocked if he wins the rookie scoring title with 70 points or more…
Meanwhile…
After starting the season off with nine points in seven games, Vancouver’s Ryan Kesler has just four in his last 20…
My “healthy scratch” theory has come into play again, this time with Edmonton’s Dustin Penner. The 26-year-old was scratched for two games in mid-November, but has since tallied nine points in eight contests. He is also a plus-4 in that span with 12 penalty minutes, making him a multi-category fantasy asset. Twice in the last four games, Penner has seen more than 21-and-a-half minutes of ice time…
In four NHL games this season, rookie winger Matt D’Agostini has four points. The 22-year-old has 25 points in 20 AHL contests, but at this rate he may not get sent down again…
Calgary winger Curtis Glencross has points in eight of his last 10 games and 12 points overall in that span. A dark horse to be a 60-point player, this 25-year-old is clearly a Mike Keenan favorite…
