Eastern Conference Playoff Dark Horses Part: 2009
By Darryl Dobbs
Here are some fellows from the Eastern Conference worth a look-see in your upcoming playoff pool draft.
Boston Bruins
The Obvious: Marc Savard, David Krejci, Phil Kessel, Tim Thomas, Dennis Wideman, Zdeno Chara, Michael Ryder.
Not So Obvious: Krejci has just 13 points in his last 26 games…After just two points in his first six games as a Bruin, Recchi has six in his last four…
Dark Horses: Chuck Kobasew has eight points in his last 10 games. When healthy, he has shown to be quite productive this season; Milan Lucic has all the tools to be that playoff warrior that becomes a legend. If the B’s play 15 postseason games, Lucic could get 10 or 12 points.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Obvious: Ray Whitney, Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu, Rod Brind’Amour, Cam Ward, Sergei Samsonov.
Not So Obvious: Samsonov has 44 points in the last 58 games, which is a 62-point pace…Brind’Amour found his magic anti-aging juice around the trade deadline day. He has 16 points in his last 12 games…
Dark Horses: Matt Cullen had 26 points in 25 games prior to his lower body injury. He’ll be fine for the playoffs and could be back in that form; Joe Corvo has 10 points in his last 11 games. His surge coincides with the rest of the team finding their offensive mojo. So which came first, the chicken or the egg? Well – if both are producing, then feel free to draft the egg; Erik Cole is a dark horse only in the sense that he has 37 points this season. Don’t overrate him, however. Even on the Hurricanes, he is not the point-per-game player he looked to be before all his injuries. In 15 games he’ll get you 10 points and no more.
Florida Panthers
The Obvious: Stephen Weiss, David Booth, Cory Stillman, Nathan Horton, Jay Bouwmeester and Tomas Vokoun.
Not So Obvious: Weiss has 38 points in the last 43 contests…Booth had streaks of 16 in 11 and 11 in six. That means that in the other 49 games he had just 24 points. That screams “streaky”. So he’ll either be hot in the playoffs or he’ll be a huge bust – be careful…After 65 points in 45 games last year in junior, Michal Frolik had just six points in nine playoff contests – and was a minus-4.
Dark Horses: Goaltender Craig Anderson has started and won two games in a row. If the Panthers get into the playoffs on his back then he’ll backstop them once they get there, as well; Gregory Campbell will probably be used to shut down the opposition’s big guns, but he is a great candidate to be this year’s Sami Pahlsson-type and post eight points in 15 games.
Montreal Canadiens
The Obvious: Andrei Markov, Alexei Kovalev, Saku Koivu, Andrei Kostitsyn, Alex Tanguay.
Not So Obvious: Since the minor Kostitsyn controversy that was all over the Montreal papers, Sergei played his way back to the American League (and is pointless since his recall) and Andrei has stumbled with just two points in 14 games. Steer clear of both…You can kid yourself into believing that Jaroslav Halak is a better goaltender than Carey Price, or that he has earned the top job. Doesn’t matter, regardless of the level of truth of those statements. The Habs will be riding Price every second they can…Robert Lang’s return will hurt Tomas Plekanec, who put up horrible numbers while Lang was in the lineup but strong numbers when Lang was hurt, so watch for that.
Dark Horses: Lang may not return until the second round, or perhaps he’ll catch some first round games. Regardless, he led the team in scoring before he suffered the injury to his Achilles tendon; Since joining the Habs for his second stint, Mathieu Schneider has 13 points in 18 contests.
New Jersey Devils
The Obvious: Zach Parise, Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner, Travis Zajac, Brian Gionta and Martin Brodeur.
Not So Obvious: Brendan Shanahan has just eight points in his last 22 games. Regardless of his track record, stay away…This is a two-line team, so barring an injury to one of their top six, you won’t see points from the likes of Shanny, John Madden, Bobby Holik or Brian Rolston.
Dark Horse: Defenseman Paul Martin has 14 points in his last 17 games and is the man the Devil’s turn to run the power play.
NY Rangers
The Obvious: Nikolai Zherdev, Nik Antropov, Scott Gomez, Chris Drury, Michal Rozsival, Henrik Lundqvist.
Not So Obvious: Drury has 10 points in 12 games since Antropov joined the squad…Markus Naslund has just four points in those same 12 games. Another big name who you should steer clear of…Rozsival had just one point in 11 games prior to his lower body injury…
Dark Horses: Ryan Callahan is on fire and he plays with the hustle and spark needed in the postseason. He has 10 points in his last 11 games; Sean Avery is playing very well in his return to New York. He has nine points in 12 games.
Philadelphia Flyers
The Obvious: Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, Scott Hartnell, Daniel Briere, Kimmo Timonen.
Not So Obvious: Five times this year Joffrey Lupul has gone through stretches of at least three games without a point…Mike Knuble has just eight points in his last 17 games.
Dark Horses: Martin Biron has started 10 of the last 11 games and won seven of them. He heats up every season at the right time; Claude Giroux will be a prolific producer in the NHL and he is seeing plenty of ice time right now. It’s very feasible that he puts up numbers at least as good as what Hartnell can do.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Obvious: Chris Kunitz, Bill Guerin, Petr Sykora, Marc-Andre Fleury, Sergei Gonchar. Oh, and some guys named Sid and Evgeni.
Not So Obvious: Miroslav Satan has seven points in six AHL games. The salary cap will keep him out of the league during the regular season. It won’t be a factor for the postseason…Since the trade deadline, Sykora has one point in eight games. That’s the impact of adding Kunitz and Guerin.
Dark Horses: Kris Letang has eight points in 11 games. Clearing Ryan Whitney off the roster is really helping his numbers; Jordan Staal frequently plays 20 minutes a game and is out there during crunch time.
Washington Capitals
The Obvious: Anyone named Alex. Also Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, Brooks Laich, Viktor Kozlov Jose Theodore.
Not So Obvious: Tomas Fleischmann and Eric Fehr have shown that they can produce, but both are immersed in a horrible slump and not worth taking unless a key injury strikes the roster…Michael Nylander is not the same player anymore. Just stay away…Laich has nine points in his last 10 games. He was hot down the stretch last year as well, and he carried that into the postseason.
Dark Horses: Sergei Fedorov still produces in spurts and occasionally the coach throws him on a line with Alexander Ovechkin. If you like the Caps to go deep, he’d be a decent pick in the final round; Fleischmann has just one point in 17 games during his horrible slump. To look at it in a more positive light – he had 31 points in 50 games before that, so the potential is there.
The Columbus Dilemma
By Darryl Dobbs
One of the most confusing and frustrating NHL teams in the minds of fantasy owners is the Columbus Blue Jackets. Confusing, because they have a pile of talent in the system and you aren’t exactly certain how things will shake out for them. Frustrating because a defensive system, as well as historically questionable treatment of the young guns.
Not to say the treatment is right or wrong. But from a fantasy standpoint, it is frustrating and confusing.
The biggest reason fantasy owners temper their expectations on some of the promising youngsters is what happened to Gilbert Brule. Here is a sixth overall pick in an NHL draft, coming off impressive junior numbers and an equally impressive cup of coffee in the NHL as an 18 year old (four points in seven games). He made the team as a 19 year old, but saw such few minutes that he posted just 19 points. The following year, it was less ice time and even few points (nine).
Then there is Rick Nash. He is an NHL star by many standards and a superstar by some. He is the heart and soul of this Columbus team and after seeing him on the world stage, you can only come away believing that he has that rare ability to top 95 points some day.
So why is his career high 69?
By the end of this season, Nash should sit at around 77 points. So after six NHL seasons, he will still be searching for that first 80-point campaign. Would he have already reached that plateau on the Kings? The Coyotes? The Senators? You could name all of the other 29 NHL teams and wonder how many more (or fewer) points he could be tallying in a single campaign.
Fantasy owners are hopeful, but they are not 100 percent secure in the young Blue Jackets. Nikita Filatov, Derick Brassard and Jakub Voracek are the Big 3 prospects. All three have the potential to at least flirt with 90 points. Filatov could probably give 100 a healthy run. But on this team? Within the next five years?
The good news for Voracek owners is that he has nearly twice the points that Brule had as a 19 year old and although he is seeing just 12:39 ice time per game, it is actually closer to 14 minutes per game as the season wears on. The good news for Filatov owners is that the team is trying to take things slow with him. Perhaps if they did this with Brule, he would be 65-point player by now.
All we can say for sure is that things are very promising, especially with the way Antoine Vermette is playing since joining the team, as well as Kristian Huselius’ potential whenever his team (be it Columbus or Calgary) ices two solid scoring lines and the focus is shifted off of him. Potentially, Vermette, Nash, Huselius, Brassard, Filatov and Voracek could lead a potent offense, with R.J. Umberger as a nice supplement to that. But just temper your expectations a little – particularly on the timeline…
Meanwhile…
The Toronto line of Mikhail Grabovski, Alexei Ponikarovsky and Nikolai Kulemin has been on fire lately, combining for 21 points in the last four games. The three hail from Belarus (but born in Germany), Ukraine and Russia respectively, and there is some potential that this line could remain together (as much as line combos remain together in today’s NHL) for this year and next. Either way, all three will see improved numbers next campaign…
Colorado’s Paul Stastny is having a miserable time of things. After making a huge splash as a rookie, he has really faltered. Prior to his appendectomy in January of 2008, Stastny had 127 points in 128 career games. Since then, he has 61 points in 74 regular season and playoff games and has missed time with a knee injury, a foot injury and a broken arm. He’ll bounce back, but one wonders by how much, given the declining offense around him in Colorado.
Ten Depth Guys to Stick On Your Team
By Darryl Dobbs
These players won’t be on any roto-team’s top nine, but they will look good in that 10, 11 or 12 slot up front, or the five and six slot on the blue line. In perusing all the players that are 27 percent owned (or lower) in Yahoo!, some interesting names crop up. Here are the ones for you to consider for the stretch run…
First, the “shame on you” section. Steve Sullivan, Tim Connolly, Tom Gilbert and Andy McDonald are owned in less than a third of all Yahoo! leagues. It’s clear that the Sullivan of old is back, which makes him a top center. Twelve points and a plus-8 in his last nine games. Shame on you for not picking him up! Defenseman Gilbert has 11 points in his last 12 contests – shame on you! Connolly may get hurt a lot, but if you can easily switch him back out of your lineup there is absolutely no reason why he should not be on your roster. He has been healthy for the last 26 games, or haven’t you noticed? Shame on you! McDonald was hurt, but now he is back and hasn’t missed a beat – still a point per game. Shame on you!
Now let’s get to the 10 guys you should grab now for what they offer you down the stretch. They may be “depth” guys, but they’ll probably out-produce some of your so-called stars. A lot of players are classified as centermen – but that should not stop you from snagging them. In fact, when you are in that situation, deal one of your “big name” pivots for a good winger, and then replace him with a centerman I have listed here. You won’t lose out in that position, yet you will improve on the wing.
Without further ado:
10. Claude Giroux, Philadelphia. Now that Daniel Briere is out again, Giroux will get back to what he was doing prior to Briere’s return. Projection down the stretch: 15 points in 18 games, even, 10 PIMs, 38 shots.
9. Ryan Kesler, Vancouver. The streaky Kesler is now regularly logging over 20 minutes per contest and at worst he’ll still give you steady numbers in the other categories. Projection down the stretch: 15 points in 18 games, plus-4, 14 PIMs, 55 shots.
8. Sean Bergenheim, N.Y. Islanders. Lots of opportunity on the Island for him now and he has always had the ability in multitude of categories. Projection down the stretch: 15 points in 17 games, even, 18 PIMs, 56 shots.
7. Patrice Bergeron, Boston. Excuse him for taking a few months to get rolling, after missing most of last season. But the Bergeron of old is back with nine points in last 10 games. Projection down the stretch: 15 points in 16 games, plus-5, 4 PIMs, 49 shots.
6. Maxim Afinogenov, Buffalo. He has two points in two games since the deadline and is back to his old self. Granted, he could be back in the doghouse, but if not you know what he is capable of. Projection down the stretch: 14 points in 17 games, minus-1, 10 PIMs, 51 shots.
5. Stephen Weiss, Florida. He has 40 points in his last 46 games. The 25-year-old has finally arrived. Projection down the stretch: 16 points in his last 16 games, plus-5, 8 PIMs, 47 shots.
4. Antoine Vermette, Columbus. A new team and new possibilities. Vermette was turning his season around, but now he is entrenched in the top six. Projection down the stretch: 16 points in 16 games, plus-3, 12 PIMs, 49 shots.
3. Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay. Everyone was grabbing this guy in September when they shouldn’t have. Nobody is grabbing him now, when they should. The future star has 10 points in his last 10 games and seeing first-line ice time. Projection down the stretch: 17 points in 16 games, minus-1, 8 PIMs, 47 shots.
2. Tuomo Ruutu, Carolina. It’s hard to imagine that he is in just 15% of all Yahoo! pools, with 15 points in his last 14 games and coming off a five-point game. His PIMs are low because Carolina has given up the least power-plays, so it’s a team system. Still, he puts up his share. Projection down the stretch: 14 points in 15 games, plus-2, 14 PIMs and 58 shots.
1. Steve Ott, Dallas. Looks like a lot of Yahoo! managers still haven’t heard the latest – Steve Ott is a fantasy stud. He has 24 points in his last 23 games, with 45 PIMs and is a plus-9 in that span. Seriously – trade your “Joe Thornton” type of player right now for a Daniel Alfredsson type of winger and pick up Ott. You will win out in both positions. Projection down the stretch: 17 points in 17 games, plus-4, 40 PIMs and 38 shots.
Honorable mentions: Matt Lombardi, Phoenix; Ales Kotalik, Edmonton; Eric Fehr, Washington, Michal Frolik, Florida; R.J. Umberger, Columbus; Matt Stajan, Toronto, Andrew Ebbett, Anaheim.
Change of Scenery – Trade Deadline Pt. 2 of 2
By Darryl Dobbs
Last week, we took at a look at the top trade candidates in the East and their fantasy impact. This week, let’s take a look at the Western Conference – where teams five through 15 are closer than I’ve ever seen them.
In fantasy hockey, a player being moved to a new NHL team is often good news for the fantasy owner. A fresh start or a likely shot as a star’s linemate – or both – is just what the doctor ordered for a slumping player.
Here are the most interesting players in the West who could be moved March 4, and what to expect from them if they are…
Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota – Despite solid statistics, young backup Josh Harding has a record of just 2-7-1. Since that record doesn’t tell the whole story, the Wild consider the youngster to have the ability to get in some starts down the stretch. Backstrom is a UFA this summer, so the team may move him to improve their future, while at the same time hope Harding keeps them in contention. Still, it is a million dollar industry and not all teams would take a chance on extra playoff revenue like that. On a new team, Backstrom would play in a weaker system, so his stats will go the wrong way. Odds of being dealt: 25%.
Marc-Andre Bergeron, Minnesota – Another Wild candidate to be moved, Bergeron could actually go regardless of whether they buy or sell – simply because of the numbers game. Kurtis Foster is back now and the team already has offensive pop from the blueline in Brent Burns and Marek Zidlicky. Bergeron’s value will go up or down depending on the team he ends up on. You saw his role in Anaheim last year, and it wasn’t pretty. But a team like Buffalo could really use a QB with his skill. Odds of being dealt: 60%.
Chicago Blackhawks’ prospects – This team has a ton of really great prospects in the pipeline and they already have a young, skilled and deep NHL roster. They don’t seem to want to accommodate Petri Kontiola’s trade demands – yet – but someone will move for a rental. Jack Skille is another candidate to move. They also have three promising goaltenders in the system – Corey Crawford, Antti Niemi and Josh Unice. Odds of one being dealt: 95%.
Erik Cole, Edmonton – His contract is running out and a lot of teams could use a hard-hitting second-line winger. Don’t point to his playoff and Stanley Cup experience, because – come on – he played two games. But still, he would bring the Oilers a decent return and moving him wouldn’t exactly take them out of contention. On a deep, elite team his value will drop as he will man the third line. On a borderline playoff team, he could see a nice pop if placed on the first line. Odds of being dealt: 50%
Marian Gaborik, Minnesota – His contract is up and he is not thrilled with Minnesota’s system. The Wild are likely to move him for some pipeline replenishment. When healthy, he is one of the greats of the game and it is scary to see how he would do on a team that opens it up. Key words – “when healthy”. Odds of being dealt: 80%
Olli Jokinen, Phoenix – Typically when teams “sell” at the deadline, they move out expensive vets and bring in prospects and young NHLers. So what happens when a team already has an abundance of those? For that reason, you may not see Jokinen or Ed Jovanovski moved. If you do, Jokinen can’t do any worse. A change of scenery would be a plus, no question. Odds of being dealt: 30%
Nikolai Khabibulin, Chicago – The Blackhawks have two No.1 goaltenders and three pretty good prospect goaltenders. Rather than invest so much money in goaltending, the thinking is that the ‘Hawks will deal Khabibulin. Don’t be too sure on that – you can’t buy this kind of insurance. If move, though, it can only help owners to have him play every game instead of split time. Odds of being dealt: 40%.
Jordan Leopold, Colorado – The Avs are fading fast, Leopold is finally healthy and his contract is up this year. Throw in the fact that the market for puck-moving defenders is a strong one, and he’s as good as gone. Leopold will thrive as a No.2 PP guy alongside an elite No.1. If he has a guy like Bryan McCabe at the other end of the blue line, that is the type of situation that would give him fantasy value. Odds of being dealt: 65%.
Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim – The Ducks are in a dogfight and they will lose the dogfight if they trade one or both of their big guns on the back end. However, rumors of him being traded to New Jersey won’t die. The Devils are a different team then when he was last there, so his fantasy value will make a sideways move if he goes there. Odds of being dealt: 45%.
Chris Pronger, Anaheim – He still has another year on his contract, but if the return is right, the Ducks could move him. The arrival of Ryan Whitney makes this just a little more likely. Similar to Niedermayer, on any other team Pronger holds the same high value. Only one of Nieds or Pronger will be dealt, if at all. Odds of being dealt: 40%.
Ryan Smyth, Colorado – Teams value his leadership and scoring punch, but because he is locked in for several more years yet the Avs will wait for the right offer. On a weak team, his value rises. On a strong team it drops. He was a point-a-game player with Paul Stastny out of the lineup, but barely a 50-point guy when he was in the lineup. Odds of being dealt: 50%.
Steve Sullivan, Nashville – His contract is up and he is starting to show some of his old form. The back is so far so good, too. The Preds need a playoff spot, so they probably won’t sell. But if they do, he is a great candidate to go. On a good team, he’ll be buried, but on a similar team he’ll be every bit as good as he is on the Preds and probably even better under a looser system. Odds of being dealt: 15%.
Keith Tkachuk, St. Louis – The Blues have already pulled off this trick and they’ll do it again. Maybe we’ll even see Tkachuk just head back there in the summer. A trade will probably hurt his value, because his situation in St. Louis is a good one. Odds of being dealt: 80%.
DobberHockey.com will have the fantasy impact of every trade within minutes of it being announced on March 4. It is a “must stop” for all fantasy owners who have their own trade deadlines to worry about.
