Cleverly Adding Peverley
By Darryl Dobbs
Had he slipped through waivers, there was a better than even chance that Rich Peverley would find himself to be a career minor leaguer, consistently in the Top 20 in AHL scoring. He would join the likes of Jason Krog, Darren Haydar, Keith Aucoin – the list goes on when speaking of AHL superstars who never really cracked the NHL.
Instead, the Nashville Predators failed to sneak him through waivers to their farm team in Milwaukee. The Atlanta Thrashers claimed him.
In the last few days, he could have picked up four points in three games for Milwaukee while centering the likes of Patric Hornqvist and Hugh Jessiman. Instead, he has six points in three games for Atlanta while centering the likes of Ilya Kovalchuk and Bryan Little.
Nice.
The 26-year-old former college star was never drafted. He went from Junior B’s Kitchener Dutchmen to Junior A’s Milton Merchants before joining St. Lawrence University in 2000. That hockey program boasts such notables as … John Zeiler (L.A.). Okay, not all that notable. Which makes his accomplishment all that more impressive.
Peverley’s calling card is his speed and opponents have difficulty keeping up with that. Even worse for them, they have to focus on Kovalchuk so they are stuck in a catch-22. If they focus any effort on keeping up with Peverley, then that’s all the room Kovalchuk needs to get open. Five of Peverley’s six Atlanta points are assists.
That kind of success buys him more opportunity to keep it up. With each game that he posts a point, Peverley is awarded two more on the big line. The odds are better than 50-50 that he’ll continued to produce at a 65-point pace. For him to fail now would require three consecutive pointless games in conjunction with an embarrassing plus/minus.
If that happens, then maybe he will join Haydar, Krog et al. after all.
But for now, Peverley makes a great No.3 center pickup in all roto-league formats for at least two weeks, with decent odds of posting another 25 to 30 points in the final 36 games and finish with 40 to 45 points in all.
For now, his keeper-league value should be kept conservative – like that of a 50-point player with upside. He will need to enter October on Kovalchuk’s line before warranting an upgrade in his fantasy value…
Meanwhile…
Todd White, now on the second line, has two points in the two games that Peverley has posted six points. White has 23 points in his last 19 games and has only missed the scoresheet twice in that span, but the situation bears watching, given the reduction in ice time (Peverley is seeing two more minutes per game)…
Phil Kessel has missed three games so far with mononucleosis, so you would think that Blake Wheeler would fill that void nicely as he moves up the depth chart. However, Wheeler has just one point in those contests – and one of those games he saw the second most ice time of his career. Meanwhile, the other scoring right winger Chuck Kobasew has a point in each of those three contests…
Robert Lang is sure benefiting from centering the two Kostitsyn brothers in Montreal. While Andrei and Sergei light the lamp, Lang has 11 points in his last seven contests…
Fantasy Hockey- Dobber’s Stock Market Tips
By Darryl Dobbs
The title says it all. So without further ado…
Sell High
Zach Parise, New Jersey – Before I get all the angry emails, let me preface this by saying that Parise is a great player who is only scratching the surface of his talent. He will regularly fall in that 85- to 95-point range year in and year out. He is in his fourth NHL season so this breakout is expected. However, he is currently on pace for 101 points. If you expect him to flirt with 95 points this season, you are mistaken. He’ll do that in his prime – which is in about three or four years. Look for 85 points – he tends to slow down in the second half given the workload in the NHL versus college. That means 40 points in 45 games, give or take.
Simon Gagne, Philadelphia – If you were smart, you would have traded him two or three weeks ago. Now that he is injured (shoulder) it has driven home a bit of reality on fantasy owners. His concussion problems will always be an issue and while Gagne’s owner was enjoying his resurgence, he or she was also ignoring the white elephant in the room. Gagne is fragile and could be one big hit away from producing zero points in zero games for you going forward. He is still a Top 20 scorer right now, so let someone else deal with it and get the good return that you can.
Mikko Koivu, Minnesota – His talent is underrated, but his upside is probably 75 points. So seeing the younger Koivu sit at a point per game would have my trigger finger pretty itchy. You are already seeing a slowdown with this guy, as he has eight points in his last 12 contests.
Devin Setoguchi, San Jose – The 22-year-old has an upside of about 85 points and in his first full NHL season he is on pace for 81. Too soon for this. If you act quickly, your fellow GM’s may not have noticed that Setoguchi has just seven points in his last 11 games. He should finish with around 70 this campaign.
Todd White, Atlanta – Do I really have to explain this one? Players who are in their mid-30s and have career highs of 60 points do not suddenly produce into the 70s. In his last four seasons, White has averaged 13 games missed. He’ll miss at least five or six this year and his production will slowdown. I think 27 points in 33 games going forward sounds about right. That would give him a new career high of 62.
Martin Havlat, Chicago – If you think this guy will play 82 games this year, then I have got a bridge that you may be interested in buying. The numbers: 73, 72, 67, 68, 18, 56, 35. Those are his games played in his career. His shoulder is being held to his body by a piece of gum and some spit. Any game now he could be out for the season.
Buy Low
Kyle Okposo, NY Islanders – He is on pace for 30 points and I still believe he will make it to 45. That would require 33 points in 42 games. He has seven in his last six, so the rookie already showing signs.
Robert Nilsson, Edmonton – He is one of those players who responds to healthy scratches. Since he was scratched, he has two points in five games and is a plus-6. Those are modest numbers, but he is clicking on a line with Sam Gagner and Erik Cole – each of whom also make decent “buy low” candidates. Nilsson is on pace for 28 points, but like Okposo I think he will flirt with 45.
Michael Frolik, Florida – Fourteen of his 16 points have come in his last 16 games, so although his pace says “36″, he is actually at almost a point per game. With 44 games left, I think he could get 36 to 41 points, meaning he will finish with 52 to 57.
Andy McDonald, St. Louis – He is a week to 10 days away from practicing with the Blues and should be in action before the All-Star break. He was over a point per game before breaking his leg and I don’t see him slowing down any. His owner would be sour on him, with this injury, so jump on that.
Nathan Horton, Florida – C’mon, he’s not going to finish with 45 points. Be realistic. He needed a few games to get his timing back and going forward I can see a good 35 points or more. That would put him in the 55- to 60-points area.
Tomas Fleischmann, Washington – He had 13 points in 17 games prior to his bout with pneumonia and I noticed his responsibility increasing. He is due back on Tuesday, so I would anticipate that he will notch 33 points in his final 42 games – giving him 52 on the season.
Sergei Samsonov, Carolina – He is on pace for 43 points, but the 30-year-old is back to his old self. He has 18 points in his last 22 games, which translates to about 67 points. He’ll get 35 going forward and finish with 56. That’s not great, but much better than what he started at.
More next week!
