Free Football Picks vLog: NFL Week 16
This week I have five solid picks, the Ravens, Lions, 49ers, Bucs, and Bears. I like them all to win, but I’ll take the spread in every game. Taking the Lions here may seem interesting, but why not?
Beantown Loves Their Special K(s)
By Darryl Dobbs
It’s certainly a lot more complicated than this, but a macro look at a successful hockey team tells us that it has strong goaltending, a stud defenseman four star forwards and strong secondary scoring. Heading into 2008-09, the Boston Bruins had Zdeno Chara as their defenseman, Marc Savard as a star forward, and they hoped that Patrice Bergeron could recover from is concussion to be that second big scorer. The B’s also hoped that the tandem of Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez would keep them in enough games to squeak into the postseason.
Two of their kids becoming sensations so quickly was not something the Bruins could have counted on, but they’ll take it. And so will their fantasy owners.
David Krejci was supposed to be their “third-line” center behind Savard and Bergeron. Phil Kessel was a promising young player without a clear role. That was in September. Today, these two kids and fellow youngster Milan Lucic are the Boston Bruins.
In fact, Savard – a $5 million player who has twice topped 95 points – has just seven points in his last 10 contests, while the so-called third-line center has 16 in that span. Going back further, Krejci has 20 in his last 12 games. Ice time? He doesn’t need any. Four times this season Krejci has played fewer than 15 minutes in a game. He totaled six points in those contests.
The 22-year-old was a standout for Gatineau of the QMJHL, he was a standout for Providence of the AHL and now he is a standout for Boston of the NHL. I can’t think of one player in the league who I have bumped up their upside so frequently – as a prospect, I had Krejci’s ceiling at 65 points. By the end of 2006-07 I bumped it up to 70. After the way he ended 2007-08 (nine in his last seven regular season games, plus another five points in seven playoff tilts), I pushed his upside to 75.
Counting the postseason, Krejci has 43 points in his last 44 games. That’s more than half the season, so it’s time to give him his due – this guy can get 90 points. I would say 80 to 85 is a more likely career high for him, but 90 is feasible.
With Phil Kessel, the expectations were much higher. At times in 2005 and into 2006 he was considered the top prospect in his draft class. He ended up being selected fifth overall, but his stock hadn’t really fallen a whole lot. He made the team as an 18-year-old, but his 29 points disappointed poolies who had hopes of an immediate impact. His second year saw an improvement to 37 points, but fantasy owners were still unhappy – in many cases he was dealt or dropped in leagues across North America.
Heading into this campaign, fantasy owners didn’t even know what position he was playing. Center? Left wing? Right wing? Would he be on the top line? The third line?
Patience wins keeper leagues and experienced poolies know that these players need a few years – usually three to five – to gain in strength and experience. It’s Kessel’s third season and he has 31 points in 30 games playing right wing on the top line with Savard and Lucic.
Kessel and Krejci will be big names in fantasy hockey and it starts now…
Meanwhile…
If you are looking for an under the radar winger who can give you two points for every three games, you should take a flyer on Joakim Lindstrom. The Coyotes picked him up from Anaheim a couple of weeks ago in a little-talked-about deal, but the 25-year-old is blessed with a lot of skill. He has nothing left to prove in the AHL and has not had great opportunities at the NHL level. The knock on him has been his size, but so far in Phoenix he is clicking nicely with rookie Mikkel Boedker. Lindstrom has three points in three games so far…
B.J. Crombeen has had an excellent season so far. First he unexpectedly made the Stars out of training camp and then later, when the team tried to sneak him to the AHL through waivers he was scooped up by St. Louis. He has eight points in 13 games for the Blues, but seven in his last five. He also has 26 penalty minutes. There is nothing in his history to suggest that he could ever get more than 40 points in a season, but he does have the pedigree to support 150 penalty minutes. Sean Avery (who is likely out of the NHL for this season) could recoup much of their losses by scooping up Crombeen. Forty points and 150 PIMs is close to the 45 and 250 that Avery would have provided.
Free Football Picks: NFL Week 15
Alright, these are my Week 15 picks of the week. I like a big dog – the Detroit Lions, I also like the favored Seahawks and Cardinals, both need to win by more than a field goal. My last pick is the road dog Giants. I’ll take the Giants as a dog anywhere.
Patrik Berglund – Calder Candidate
By Darryl Dobbs
After a sluggish start, rookie Patrik Berglund has shot up the rookie scoring charts and emerged as a legitimate contender for the Calder Trophy.
When St. Louis drafted him 25th overall in 2006, it was overshadowed by the fact that the team also drafted defenseman Erik Johnson with the top pick. Pundits agreed even then, though, that Berglund was one of the 15 best offensive forwards that were available and that potentially he could be remembered as the one of the top three.
Coming from a stacked draft that included Jonathan Toews, Jordan Staal, Nicklas Backstrom, Kyle Okposo, Peter Mueller, Phil Kessel and Bryan Little, Berglund is finally starting to get noticed. The attitude has always been there – the Swede spent the summer in North America and worked on his main weakness – strength.
After just three points in his first eight NHL contests, the Blues suddenly really needed him to step up. Injuries to Paul Kariya and fellow rookie T.J. Oshie pushed the 20-year-old Berglund up to the No.1 slot up the middle. And he delivered.
With the added ice time and responsibility, Berglund has posted 13 points in 12 contests to go with a plus-8 rating. He has moved up to fourth place in the rookie scoring race with 16 points and is playing hotter than any of the three guys ahead of him. With Oshie now back in the lineup, Berglund’s ice time has not taken a hit at all and it is also unlikely to change when Kariya returns. He has always reminded analysts of another tall and lanky Swede, but his play of late is really conjuring up Mats Sundin images.
All rookies go through their cold spells and Berglund will be no different, but don’t be shocked if he wins the rookie scoring title with 70 points or more…
Meanwhile…
After starting the season off with nine points in seven games, Vancouver’s Ryan Kesler has just four in his last 20…
My “healthy scratch” theory has come into play again, this time with Edmonton’s Dustin Penner. The 26-year-old was scratched for two games in mid-November, but has since tallied nine points in eight contests. He is also a plus-4 in that span with 12 penalty minutes, making him a multi-category fantasy asset. Twice in the last four games, Penner has seen more than 21-and-a-half minutes of ice time…
In four NHL games this season, rookie winger Matt D’Agostini has four points. The 22-year-old has 25 points in 20 AHL contests, but at this rate he may not get sent down again…
Calgary winger Curtis Glencross has points in eight of his last 10 games and 12 points overall in that span. A dark horse to be a 60-point player, this 25-year-old is clearly a Mike Keenan favorite…
NFL Free Picks: Week 14 2008
I have 5 more picks this week, taking the Bucs, Steelers, Patriots, Bears, and Bengals – All my games are for Sunday’s action, and all are solid picks. Lets get one more winning week in this streak!
Kyle Quincey – Blip or Stud?
By Darryl Dobbs
So how does a defenseman go from eighth on the depth chart on one NHL team to second on another? Every season, there seems to be a defenseman who is discarded either via waivers or as a throw-in in a deal and that rearguard ends up performing fairly well on his new team.
In 2005, Columbus had no use for Francois Beauchemin, so they sent him to Anaheim when the Ducks were shedding Sergei Fedorov’s salary. Beauchemin went on to post 34 points in 61 games for Anaheim. He has since found a different sort of role for the Ducks, but were it not for the presence of Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger it could be argued that he would have been a 40-point defenseman today.
Later that same season, Ron Hainsey was waived by the Habs. The Blue Jackets picked him up and he posted 66 points over the last two seasons there, parlaying that into a big contract with the Thrashers.
Fantasy owners probably saw the biggest turnaround when Dan Boyle was dumped by Florida to Tampa Bay for a fifth-round pick in 2002.
This year, there was no room in Detroit for 23-year-old Kyle Quincey so they tried to sneak him through waivers to Grand Rapids. The Kings claimed him and what we have is some impressive production.
Only fellow rearguard Drew Doughty has averaged more ice time per game on the Kings than Quincey. He is also fifth on the team in power-play ice time, averaging 3:33 per contest and seven of his 13 points have come with the man advantage.
So what is in store for Quincey? Granted, Jack Johnson is the future quarterback in Los Angeles, although he is still several years away. The team also has Thomas Hickey and Colten Teubert on the way. So including Doughty, the Kings already have their future top four set. But my theory on quality players still holds here – if the player is performing, the team will find room. Well, 13 points in 19 contests (and a plus-5 rating) is performing.
The Kings were hoping to get this kind of performance from Peter Harrold. Had they received it, they would have found a way to keep Harrold in the mix when all of their stud defensemen joined the roster in a couple of years. Now they’ll be accommodating Quincey instead.
A former quarterback for the London Knights and Mississauga Ice Dogs of the OHL, Quincey is on pace to tally 54 points this season. That seems a little high for a player who up until now could not find regular work in the NHL. However, given his ice time and consistency (he has never gone three-straight pointless games this year), there is no reason to think he won’t reach 45.
With the depth of blueliners in the Los Angeles system it is difficult to project how Quincey will fare in the long term, but if he tops 45 points this campaign he will be given every chance to succeed in future ones…
Meanwhile…
My favorite example of “if the player is performing, the team will find room” is Jeff Carter. Banished to the third line in the minds of many fantasy owners, he slipped through their grasp thanks to their narrow-mindedness. Carter is too skilled to toil on the third line by the usual definition of the term. We are seeing that now, given his 16 goals in 23 games and eight points in his last six. Those poolies who saw past the “third-liner” label are smiling…
One of the streakiest players in the NHL is Ryan Malone. Tampa Bay is finding that out first hand as they watched him struggle with three points in 14 games and then follow that up with eight in his last five. Ride the wave for another week or so. In the end, he’s a 50-point player…
Notorious slow starter Jay Bouwmeester has nine points in his last eight games. His career high is 46 points and he will beat that this season by at least five.
