Lucky Week 13: NFL Free Picks
I have 5 picks this week, taking the Titans, Panthers, Bucs, Steelers and Texans – it starts on Thanksgiving continues on Sunday and finishes off Monday Night. Lets keep the winners going in Lucky Week 13. Check out analysis for every single NFL game at LuckyLester.com.
Fantasy Hockey Impact – Brenden Morrow
By Darryl Dobbs
Thursday night we lost one of the most important fantasy players in the world for the rest of the regular season. Not only was Brenden Morrow a multi-category stud, but he also played one of the most difficult positions to fill in fantasy hockey – left wing.
But his torn ACL does not just impact Brenden Morrow owners. Far from it. For better or for worse, owners of any player in the Dallas organization will feel this one.
Who is impacted?
1. Brenden Morrow – Obviously. In rotisserie leagues, finding a left winger who will get 70 points, 140 penalty minutes, plus-10 and 200 shots on goal…well, keep dreaming. In those leagues, owners will be lucky to scrape up a 35-point player who gets 75 PIMs. Possible actions: search the waiver wire for deals. Some possible available left wingers include teammate James Neal, Ryan Malone, Brendan Shanahan, Taylor Pyatt, Sergei Kostitsyn, Sean Bergenheim, Matt Cooke and Ben Eager.
2. Mike Ribeiro – One of the better set-up men in the league, Ribeiro no longer has a 30-goal scorer to pass the puck to. He was on the ice for nine of Morrow’s 14 points this year. If you remove one-third of those points (assuming a 20-goal winger replaces the 30-goal winger), then Ribeiro has 16 points in 18 games. That’s the pace he will have going forward, which would put him in that 74 to 77 range. With Morrow, he would have topped 80 points this campaign.
3. Loui Eriksson – Although Eriksson was often the other winger on the Morrow-Ribeiro line, Morrow’s loss may actually help him. The Stars need offense from the wing, and now there is one less player competing for that responsibility. Eriksson played nearly 21 minutes in Dallas’ first post-Morrow game and scored their only goal. The youngster seemed destined for 55 points this season, but now he could top 60. He has nine goals already this season, so hitting the milestone of 30 seems almost imminent.
4. James Neal – The rookie was called up temporarily to replace Jere Lehtinen. Now that there is an open roster spot, Neal could stick for good. He is a wildcard who, over a full campaign this year, could tally anywhere from 30 to 50 points.
5. Fabian Brunnstrom – It was looking as though the late-bloomer would play three and sit one all season long. An intelligent pure goal scorer, he was on his way to 20 goals, 10 assists…and a minus-12 in 60 games. With the extra roster spot, he will see all of those numbers increase slightly. Unfortunately, that will not include his plus/minus, which will probably be one of the lowest in the league come April.
6. Sean Avery – The premier agitator of the NHL, Avery saw his fourth-highest ice time all season Saturday. That includes 3:38 on the power play. If that’s a sign of things to come, his production will increase by at least 25 percent.
Dallas’ line combinations in the first post-Morrow contest: Brad Richards, with Steve Ott and Eriksson; Ribeiro, with Neal and Avery; Mike Modano, with Brunnstrom and Mark Parrish.
Meanwhile…
The Islanders’ Sean Bergenheim did not see 12 minutes of ice time in a game in his first five contests of the season. Since then, he has only been under that mark once. The result of the added responsibility is six points and 18 penalty minutes in his last 12 games. Not exactly Morrow numbers, but if the pickings are slim, he looks good for 45 points and 110 PIMs this year…
Since joining the Kings, young rearguard Kyle Quincey has 10 points in 16 games. Six of his points have come on the power play…
New Jersey defenseman Johnny Oduya has eight points in his last 10 games. Those of you who read the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide will remember that he had 21 points in his final 43 games last season…
‘Big Joe’ Thornton – Like Clockwork
By Darryl Dobbs
Joe Thornton is not quite at a point per game and his fantasy owners are deeply disappointed. They shouldn’t be, because everything is proceeding according to plan.
Big Joe is a top-six fantasy player (according to the DobberHockey player rankings) in leagues that do not have positional requirements and count strictly points.
Last season, Thornton had 24 points in his first 21 games, which was one of his faster starts, as his production only improved by about five percent after that.
However, in 2006-07, he had 23 in his first 21 and finished the year with 114 points, which is a 27 percent increase over his original 89-point pace. In 2005-06, it was the same story. Although it was the fastest start of his career (28 points in 18 games), his final 21 games that year saw him post 36 points.
All this goes to show that regardless of whether the 29-year-old starts this first quarter of the season on a 75-point pace or he starts it on a 90-point pace, he still shines brightest down the stretch.
In four of his last five seasons, Thornton has tallied at least 92 points and you can take it to the bank that he will do it again this campaign. I always make it an annual event in December to try and pry him off of his owner’s hands and this year will be no different.
Statistics don’t lie…
Meanwhile…
It is interesting to see that, heading into Sunday’s action, Jordan Staal has 11 points in 17 games while his older and more talented brother Eric has 10 in the same amount of games. This is the furthest into the season that Jordan has been the top-scoring Staal. I have a hard time believing that the elder brother will fail to reach 75 points. I also think that Jordan will top his career high of 42 points, but for this year I doubt he’ll get to 60…
Chicago rearguard Aaron Johnson is the only player in the NHL top five plus/minus leaders who is not a member of the Capitals. An offensive blueliner in junior, Johnson was praised for his defense in his first season of Columbus but fell out of favor the following year. I doubt he’ll push his plus/minus much higher than plus-15, but he is looking like a solid option if you need a depth rearguard who will post 30 points and not hurt you in the other categories…
Pittsburgh’s Ruslan Fedotenko has eight points and is a plus-2 in his last nine contests. He’s streaky, so this won’t last, but he is worth a temporary pickup and should finish the year with 45-plus points and remain on the positive side of the plus/minus ledger…
Boston’s Chuck Kobasew has six points in five games this year. The Band-Aid Boy had two points in the first game of the season before fracturing his ankle. He has four points in four games since returning and is definitely under the radar right now…
Week 12 NFL Free Picks vLog
I have my biggest NFL Video Pick card of the year, and why not, I like my picks this week. Who am I taking? 4 dogs and a favorite, but all road teams in Week 12. I have the Patriots, 49ers, Panthers, Vikings, and Giants covering on the road this week. Check out my picks here, and for more analysis, head to luckylester.com.
NFL Free Picks: Week 11
I’ve matched the week with wins in each of the pass two NFL weeks – that’s 9 in Week 9, 10 in Week 10, and now Week 11 is right in front of my eyes. I have 4 video picks for you here, after going undefeated (4-0) last week.
The Impact of a Comeback
By Darryl Dobbs
How comfortable did you feel drafting Alexander Semin in September? Not comfortable enough to draft him when you should have? Was he taken by somebody else in the ninth round when you were considering him in the eighth?
How do you feel about that now?
The league leader in points (tied heading into Saturday) and in points per game, Semin is showing all the skills that were on display in 2006-07 when he had 73 points. He missed much of last year with a sprained ankle and when he did play he was clearly still hampered by the injury.
Semin isn’t the only player who has bounced back from such a year. Entering Saturday, Philadelphia’s Simon Gagne was 11th in scoring with 12 points in nine contests, Joe Sakic had a point per game, Shea Weber was tied for the lead amongst rearguards and Kevin Bieksa had nearly a point per game. If those players were healthy last season, each one of them would have been drafted a good three to five rounds ahead of where they actually were selected this past summer in fantasy leagues.
I don’t have a hard and fast rule about the amount of aging stars (Sakic) or Band-Aid Boys (Gagne) or possible future Band-Aid Boys (any young player who misses significant time in his first two or three seasons, i.e. Weber, Semin or Bieksa) on my fantasy league. But I do monitor the situation while sitting down at the draft. If I see I have Semin on my team, I probably think twice before drafting a Weber.
It’s all about the level of risk you are comfortable with. In my one keeper league – the league is in its 19th season – the team in second is just a few points ahead of me. He has Semin, Gagne and Sakic. It’s your classic “buy low” scenario and he really took advantage. Will he hang on? I would eat my hat if he does. One of those players will get hurt again and my money is on Gagne, who has more of a history than the rest of the group.
Even so, it’s a game of luck and this fantasy owner took too many risks and every one of them has paid off. He could have just as easily had Justin Williams, Joni Pitkanen and Pavol Demitra instead of the other three. In the summer, how was anyone to know which players would get hurt again and which ones would bounce back?
Dobber’s Predictions:
Alexander Semin will play at least 78 games and wind up with 85 points. When Alex Ovechkin gets rolling, Semin will start to slow.
Simon Gagne will get to the 35-game mark (31 points) before suffering a minor injury. Upon his return, he will get to 62 games before missing more time. Expect 59 points in 62 contests.
Kevin Bieksa will miss games from time to time with minor injuries, but will finish with 54 points in 72 games, completely a solid comeback year.
Joe Sakic will play 80 games and garner 80 points. Never doubt Big Joe!
Shea Weber will also get to the 80-game mark and have a Dion Phaneuf-like breakout season, tallying 53 points.
