NFL Pick Video Weblog Week 4 2008
I’m taking the Green Bay Packers as an underdog because anywhere outside of a game against the Cowboys, that’s a steal.
The Young D-Man Mentality
You see it happen time and again. An 18-year-old defenseman is hyped in NHL circles and, subsequently, the media and as a result their stature rises in the eyes of fantasy owners. Erik Johnson? Oh, he is going to be a superstar. Ed Jovanovski? Gotta have him. Chris Pronger? I’m taking him first overall!
This is the wrong approach and this statement becomes even more important in fantasy drafts this year, given the high-end defensemen selected at the 2008 NHL draft.
Unlike a forward, the best defensemen do not bust loose right away. In fact, most defensemen are not even fantasy-worthy as teenagers. While Steven Stamkos will likely clear 60 points this season, and you just saw the likes of Patrick Kane, Peter Mueller and Nicklas Backstrom all post strong totals in 2007-08, the odds are that you will not see the same kind of explosiveness from 2008 draftees Drew Doughty, Zach Bogosian and Alex Pietrangelo.
You might, but history is against it.
Was there a rearguard more hyped than Chris Pronger in 1993? The guy was well over six feet tall, put up giant numbers (both points and penalty minutes) in junior and was drafted second overall (by Hartford). Poolies were all over this guy – even in leagues where only points mattered. What did they get for their trouble? Thirty points. Followed by 14, 25, 35 and 36.
So in a points-only pool, he would have been sitting on the bench for five seasons.
Ed Jovanovski – first overall in 1994. He got onto the fantasy radar with similar size and skill as Pronger, but once again, rewarded poolies with seasons of 21, 23, 23, 27 and 26 points, in that order.
Let’s keep going.
Wade Redden, Aki Berg, Chris Phillips, Andrei Zyuzin, Eric Brewer, Paul Mara, Brad Stuart, Rostislav Klesla and Mike Komisarek were all recent Top 8 picks who failed to reach 40 points in their first four NHL seasons. Some eventually got there and some never did hit the mark. Jay Bouwmeester took three seasons to get to 40 points, but we’re still waiting on him really busting out and hitting the heights that most poolies project.
There are, of course, exceptions. Dion Phaneuf is a good one. Bryan Berard is another. But it seems to take 10 or 12 Prongers before you see a Phaneuf. Yet poolies continue to fall for the hype, overpaying for promising players that they will need to sit on for three to six years before seeing dividends. In actuality, you should be steering clear of the players and then making a pitch for them in three years when their owner gets tired of waiting.
In the meantime, there are the less-hyped players who are late bloomers that enter the league in their 20s. Examples include Brian Rafalski (26), Tobias Enstrom (23) and Mark Streit (28). There are also players who were drafted a little further down the list and receive little hype, and the club brings along slowly. The players, such as Washington’s Mike Green, enter the league at age 20 or 21 and by their second year they pop.
Bottom line: don’t get caught in the scramble to draft an 18-year-old defenseman. There are cheaper gems out there who will give you more immediate return.
For this season, look at the Kings’ Peter Harrold, or Anaheim’s Brian Salcido. Toronto’s Anton Stralman is another good one, and one of Tampa Bay’s Andrew Hutchinson or Janne Niskala should give good return. New Jersey has an intriguing Finn who should make the team by the name of Anssi Salmela. Jack Hillen over on the Island bears watching.
There are lots of options and I would probably prefer to take a boom or bust guy who will give immediate return (or nothing at all), rather than a surefire stud that sits on my bench for four years.
Free Video NFL Pick of the Week: 9-21-2008
Lucky Lester share’s best pick of the week for Week 3 in the NFL football season. Lucky is taking the Browns as a two point underdog in Baltimore. Lucky is 3-1 with his top picks this season, and 19-11-1 overall.
Hurricane Warning!
The may have finished 5th in NHL scoring last season, but the Hurricanes are going to score even more in 2008-09.
No, the Hurricanes will not explode because Eric Staal suddenly finds himself a kazillionaire. Actually, the reason dates back to February 11, 2008. That was when the team acquired Joe Corvo. Up until that point, Carolina had averaged 2.88 goals per game. After that it was 3.46.
That prorates to an extra 34 goals in the season ahead. Will they do it? I believe that they can.
Carolina GM Jim Rutherford has known for several years that this team needed a dynamic power-play quarterback. He didn’t realize how much until he saw what this team did after Corvo came to town. So impressed was he, that he added a second one in Joni Pitkanen. So now the ‘Canes have two threats on the back end.
There is little doubt in my mind that Corvo will set career highs this season. The 31-year-old had 21 points in 23 games with Carolina to finish with his current best of 48. Write this down and throw it in my face if I’m wrong: he will beat that number by the trade deadline (end of February).
As for Pitkanen, who will turn 25 in a few days, all that is stopping him is his health. He has missed an average of just fewer than 15 games per season in his NHL career. A potential 60-point defenseman is of little use to poolies if he can’t play 70 games. Still, his presence in the lineup for the 65 to 70 games that he will actually play will help boost the final numbers for some of the forwards. This eighth-ranked power play from last year will be Top 5 this season.
That bodes well for the team’s top six, which is further bolstered by the return of Justin Williams and Rod Brind’Amour, neither of whom was in the lineup while they scored at a 3.46 goals-per-game clip. That’s right, this team that was scoring as well or better than any other team in March did so without two of their four best players in the lineup.
Both Brind’Amour and Williams were out with knee injuries for a huge chunk of 2007-08, but judging by beat writer Chip Alexander’s observations (link: http://blogs.newsobserver.com/canes/friday-finish-workout-observations) both are back to their old selves.
And then there is Staal. He who has added a few pounds, but has reduced his body fat. Soon to be 24 and entering his fifth NHL season, he is entering that window of a superstar’s career where things really take off. His 100 points back in 2005-06 may have only been a teaser.
Bottom line: at the draft table if you are agonizing over Player A (a Hurricane) and Player B (not a Hurricane), take the Hurricane. Trust me.
Pick up Dobber’s 2008-09 Fantasy Guide, updated through to September 14 and updated into October! Can any other fantasy hockey magazine tell you the impact of the Robert Lang trade on the Chicago lineup? Dobber’s does!
Free NFL Predictions for Week2 2008: Video Weblog Picks
Lucky Lester share’s his winners in three NFL games from Week 2 – He takes the Packers, Titans, and Patriots to win and cover against their respective opponents.
NCAA DirecTV ESPN GamePlan Free Picks: Week 3
Lucky Lester takes a list of college plays this week, all from the DirecTV GamePlan package. He’s taking lots of dogs including UAB against Tennessee and Bowling Green at Boise State.
Sakic’s Ripple Effect on Fantasy Hockey
When Joe Sakic signed on with the Avs for another season, some pieces fell into place on a lot of fantasy rosters. When Teemu Selanne and Mats Sundin announcements are made, you will see the same ripple effect.
Had Sakic retired: Rookie T.J. Hensick and the inconsistent Ty Arnason would have shared the second-line center job. Wojtek Wolski and Marek Svatos would have been their wingers, and with a weaker power play, John-Michael Liles would have struggled to reach 40 points.
Now: Hensick deserves to make the team, but now there is little room. If he does make the roster, Arnason will be a frequent healthy scratch. New coach Tony Granato may not like Arnason as much as Joel Quenneville did. What you will find is Hensick’s ice time suffering early on, and perhaps a demotion. If he plays his way into a substantial role, then Arnason will be the one who suffers. Seeing as Arnason is coming off of his worst full NHL season, it is reasonable to assume that a press box is in his future.
Sakic will play with Ryan Smyth and one of Svatos and Wolski. One of Svatos and Wolski will play with Paul Stastny and Milan Hejduk. Any way you look at it, Svatos and Wolski see better linemates. The power play is much improved, so suddenly Liles will be flirting with 50 instead of 40.
The same thing will happen to whichever team signs Mats Sundin – assuming he signs with a team and does not retire. Things are looking grim on that front for Montreal and Philadelphia, which means Toronto, Vancouver, New York and retirement are in the running.
In Toronto, I like Mikhail Grabovski as a dark horse. Bring Sundin on board and I no longer like Grabovski. In New York, I like Mats Naslund a lot more with Sundin on his team than I do without Sundin. In Vancouver, I don’t see Pavol Demitra getting 65 points. Inject Sundin onto the roster and suddenly I see Demitra getting there easily.
As for Selanne, he will play this season and it will be for Anaheim. The problem is – the Ducks don’t have cap space. To get cap space, they will trade high-priced rearguard Mathieu Schneider. To trade Schneider, they will need to find a team with cap space. If that team has cap space, they are saving it for Sundin. The ripple effect here? When Sundin makes a decision, the teams that are out of the running can bring in Schneider, which would then mean Selanne can sign on the dotted line.
In the meantime, you can look at your Anaheim players as if their teammates will indeed include Selanne.
Meanwhile…
The Andrej Meszaros trade also had a ripple effect. In Ottawa, bringing in two rearguards and losing just one will make it difficult for Brian Lee to make the team and it will make it near impossible for Brendan Bell to. Lee will be fine, but initially his power-play time will be shared a little more.
In Tampa, the story gets much more interesting. The team lost two d-men and gained one, which means there are fewer players on the depth chart ahead of Andrew Hutchinson and Janne Niskala. Before the trade, I thought Hutchinson would be a defenseman to watch, but wait and see. Now…I think he is a legitimate sleeper pick who at the very least will have a strong first half.
