World Series Betting: Outside Factors
The World Series weather and the amount of rest the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies are getting are important factors to consider before doing any World Series betting.
The cold weather actually affects the physics of the ball changing how it moves and how far it travels when hit and the Phillies are coming off of too much rest while the Yankees ace pitcher is getting too little.
How Much Rest is Too Much?
When the Philadelphia Phillies dispatched the Los Angeles Dodgers 10-4 last Wednesday to take the NLCS in 5 games, they probably didn’t realize they’d need to hold training camp again just to get ready for their next round.
After going 162 games with only the rare day off, the Phillies get a full week and that can’t be good for their timing.
Batting is all about fine timing. A millisecond too fast or too slow can make the difference between a deep fly ball, a line drive, and a home run. Professional ball players often say that when their timing is on the ball seems to move slower or look bigger.
Now with all of their rest, expect some of the Phillies hot bats to go cold for the series as they struggle to find their timing again.
The rest should, however, help the pitching.
If media speculation is to be believed the Yankees’ CC Sabathia is going to be pitching on 3 days rest. They’ve been riding the CC train hard throughout the playoffs and you have to wonder if maybe there just might be a little break down if he’s not properly maintained.
The Phillies’ deep bull-pen will be all rested and healed. When games start going deep in to extra innings all that extra rest will come in to play particularly since the Yankees have fewer pitchers that they trust with games.
One really long game would also affect the pitching in later games and give the Phillies an advantage.
The Deep Freeze
The cold weather affects the physics of the game. Increased resistance makes the ball move more. Pitchers with good curves and sliders are going to be that much more effective. Pitchers who are forced to throw more fastballs because they are struggling with their control.
The cold weather also makes the ball travel significantly less distance when hit. Long ball hitters lose out while speed and the ability to hit and run become more important.
The hitting for the Yankees and the Phillies is fairly similar, so the cold weather is not likely to give either an advantage. But don’t be surprised to see fewer runs scored than you would otherwise expect.
Final Betting Considerations
How the Phillies as a team handle their long rest and how CC Sabathia handles his short rest could go a long way to determining who wins the series. The weather is more likely to be a factor from game to game depending on the pitching match-ups and, of course, the actual weather. Whether you’re betting Yankees or betting Phillies, don’t forget to consider outside factors before placing your bet.
The Glendale Gong Show
There is a lot going on in the hockey world down in, er, the desert. With all of these off-ice distractions, how can these promising young players continue to blossom into fantasy studs? Let’s take a look at some of the key components.
It’s a difficult thing to measure or properly gauge – the balance between a player’s natural tendency to let outside influences get to him, with a player’s ability improving with added strength and experience. For the youngsters who haven’t been in the league long enough to really know any different, is the attention off the ice any different then playing in say Toronto or Montreal? For the veterans who are used to relative anonymity, will this new spotlight that has nothing to do with their play affect their numbers?
The Vets
Shane Doan – The captain is a born leader and is coming off of the two most productive seasons of his career. You have to think that distraction will have little impact on his numbers so expect a number between his last two seasons (73 and 78).
Matt Lombardi – He produced at a 68-point pace upon arriving in Phoenix, but that was before the nasty stuff hit the fan. Still, prior to the lockout Calgary wasn’t exactly entrenched as an NHL certainty and he was around for that, albeit briefly. I still think that improving on his Calgary production is in the cards.
Radim Vrbata – Is the Glendale Gong Show any worse than the Laughable Lightning of a year ago? I submit that his environment has actually improved. Although his role with the ‘Yotes won’t be as important as his last tour of duty, he should still produce in that 40-50 range.
Ed Jovanovski – When it comes to microphones in front of his face, he’s been there and done that. Coming off of his lowest points-per-game since before the lockout, there is nowhere to go but up for this guy.
Adrian Aucoin – For the 36-year-old I would be predicting a drop in production regardless, so it’s hard to say whether the bankruptcy situation will have any impact.
Ilya Bryzgalov – Of all the ‘Yotes, the goaltender coming off of a sluggish season is the most worrisome. It will be difficult for him to hide in shell. Although I like Bryzgalov for a comeback season due to his age and talent, I can’t help but be worried. There could be trouble here.
The Kids
Peter Mueller, Kyle Turris, Mikkel Boedker, Martin Hanzal, Viktor Tikhonov, Keith Yandle – All six youngsters have similar experience and have loads of untapped potential. Mueller, Boedker and Turris are being bred for top six roles and ideally would take the next step this season. Mueller has had his sophomore slump and Turris couldn’t possibly have one, given his dreadful rookie campaign. Hanzal is being brought along as a skilled third-line checker, one who uses his size much like Michal Handzus did in his prime while, also like Handzus, also putting up 45 to 55 points. Tikhonov is in a similar situation as Hanzal, although he may not adapt to the checking role as readily. Yandle is hoping to be the quarterback of the future, but of the four I get the feeling – a gut one – that Yandle is the most susceptible to a small step back.
Scott Upshall and Petr Prucha – Two points in 17 playoff games should give you an idea of how well Prucha handles pressure. I don’t like his chances of thriving at all, especially with his hold on a top-six spot so tenuous. Upshall is a competitor, so although he is a tad fragile, I like him for picking up where he left off. He had a 0.68 points-per-game average after joining Phoenix.
Al Montoya, Kevin Porter and Sami Lepisto – It’s hard to quantify these youngsters given their limited NHL experience. Porter will be hard-pressed to make the team this year and he certainly deserves better than “reserve player” status. The AHL would be best for him, at least until a top-six injury strikes. As for Lepisto and Montoya – give them the boom or bust label. They would have that label regardless of the Gong Show, but now it becomes even more so.
The Past Week: Five Things to Note
By Darryl Dobbs
Obviously a lot has gone on since the Entry Draft ended, and there are two ways to look at some of the moves. The first is – how does each transaction affect NHL teams? The second is – how does each transaction affect your fantasy team? You can guess which of the two we’re going to focus on.
A Tale of Two RFA’s
Carolina’s Jussi Jokinen and Toronto’s Mikhail Grabovski were slated to become restricted free agents July 1. Jokinen, 26, had 103 points in his first two seasons. Grabovski, 25, had 48 in his one and only season. Jokinen signed a two-year deal worth $3.4 million. Grabovski signed for three years at $8.7 million. Why such a difference? Because Jokinen had a weak start in Dallas in 2007-08 and then ended up in the middle of Tampa’s rollercoaster ride from hell. In the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world of the NHL, Grabovski boasts more value. But both contracts have an impact in the fantasy hockey world.
Jokinen is a potential 55- or 60-point player, but may not get a chance to show it on another team. The Hurricanes – leaders in reclamation projects – will get the most out of him.
Grabovski’s potential is somewhat higher and probably closer to 70 or 75 points. However, he showed a lot of signs of faltering in his one full season – signs that have taken a lot of promising players out of the league, from Todd Elik to Gilbert Dionne to Mike York to Dmitri Kvartalnov. He started the year with two points in seven games and went through a slump of 13 points in 38 games around the whole Kostitsyn fiasco. However, giving him nearly $3 million per season for the next three years carried a heavy buyout cost if it backfires. Therefore, the Leafs will do everything they can to ensure that it doesn’t backfire. Meaning, his ice time will go up and it will never go down no matter how badly he slumps.
The New York Rangers
Not exactly a team known for sitting on their hands, the Rangers have, in the past week, lost Nik Antropov, Colton Orr, Fredrik Sjostrom and Scott Gomez. They have added Marian Gaborik, Chris Higgins, Brian Boyle, Donald Brashear and Tyler Arnason, while shoring up the prospect pipeline with Ryan McDonagh and Pavel Valentenko and adding some good AHL depth with Corey Locke.
The Rangers have struggled with finding an elite puck-moving defenseman since Brian Leetch and they are determined to eventually get one. Already with Bobby Sanguinetti and Michael Del Zotto in the fold, the team signed free agent Matt Gilroy out of college and acquired Valentenko almost as a throw in from Montreal. The impact of this philosophy probably won’t be felt in 2009-10, but you’ll start to see it the following year and by 2011-12 this team will be elite in terms of moving the puck up the ice and using the blueliners to set up the power play.
In shifting a centerman out of the roster in Gomez, while bringing in a winger in Gaborik, the team has made it clear that a young pivot will have an opportunity. It will be up to one of Brian Boyle and Artem Anisimov to seize the moment. The winner of that battle should top 40 points as a rookie.
“I Believe In You (Until I Find Someone Else)”
Not so fast Chris Mason. You may have gone 24-8-6 to end last season and chase Manny Legace out of the NHL, but the Blues must have been paying attention to what happened in Nashville. How else do you explain their decision to bring in Ty Conklin, a goaltender who has gone 43-19-7 over the last two seasons? Best to stay out of drafting a Blues’ goalie this summer. You don’t know how it will pan out.
Don’t unpack your things just yet Al Montoya. You may be heading back to San Antonio. You see, giving up just one goal in your first two starts was nice and all, but letting in six in your third game makes Phoenix a little uncomfortable.
So Jason Labarbera was signed and now, not only does Montoya’s NHL career hang in the balance before it even starts, but Ilya Bryzgalov better get off to a decent start as well.
Petr Budaj – the free ride is over. Your inconsistent hot/cold play may have withstood Jose Theodore and Andrew Raycroft, but Craig Anderson is hungry and he only had two bad games out of 31 last year. This is one battle where I would actually put my money on a netminder – give me Anderson for 10 bucks.
The Chicago Blackhawks
Everyone knows that the Blackhawks are a young, exciting team with a chance to win a Cup within the next five years. By bringing in John Madden and Tomas Kopecky, they increased their odds of that. Granted, they brought in Marian Hossa, who is a much bigger name, but he essentially just replaced Martin Havlat. This team needed Cup experience and a defensive presence and that’s what Madden brings.
Kopecky could be the next Jay Pandolfo. In Detroit, his ice time was sparse but it looked as though they were bringing him along to be a defensive forward and penalty-killing specialist. He’s been on a winner and that makes the Hawks a better playoff team – so pay attention if you’re in a league that has a separate postseason contest (as mine do).
The Los Angeles Kings
For three years now I have been hyping this team as the next Pittsburgh. They have the depth in their system at every position. Since then, Chicago has surpassed them – but clearly the Kings are making their move. They needed grit, experience and a defensive presence. Signing Rob Scuderi brings the latter and trading for Ryan Smyth adds the former. Bringing aboard Justin Williams helps in that regard as well. Watch out for this team come March.
Spezza and Heatley
By Darryl Dobbs
It figures. Spezza owners finally get an 82-game season out of him and he posts his worst points-per-game numbers since his first full NHL season. That means that there has never been a better time to acquire the Ottawa pivot then right now and ditto for his superstar linemate Dany Heatley.
After three consecutive campaigns of producing at least 1.21 points per game, Spezza slipped to 0.89. His 73 points was 14 points lower than his 2006-07 season in which he missed 15 games. At the young age of 25 (he turns 26 this coming Saturday), the Mississauga, Ontario native has his best years ahead of him. He is still short of his prime. So while his owner thinks of him as a 75- or 80-point player with a lot of upside, you can capitalize on that. The fact of the matter is, he is a 90-point player with upside and you’ve just witnessed his downside.
All players have a year or two like it and the real stars bounce back nicely. Joe Sakic had a bad run of two years. In 1996-97 and 1997-98, he had injury-plagued seasons of 74 and 63 points with the latter number even falling short of his games played that year (64). It was hard to believe that Sakic would peak at the age of around 28, but some poolies did that very thing. The expectations were lowered to that of a 70- or 75-point player, but in 1998-99 he had 96 points. He also cleared 100 on two occasions after that.
Spezza will be the same way. When you follow a player’s statistics closely, like die-hard poolies do, you are following them day-to-day and week-to-week. To see a player have an entire season go bad, it’s only natural to have your expectations dip. This is where the more casual fantasy owner has an advantage. That owner sees the year-to-year numbers and still sees a player who will get 90 points with potential for more. Sometimes you have to take a step back and look at the big picture. Pretend you didn’t live through Spezza’s ups (he had a couple) and downs (he had a lot) from last campaign and take 2008-09 as the exception and not the rule. If it helps, just think of how he had 33 points in 34 games under the new coach. Still sub-par for him, but much better.
Dany Heatley is in the same boat. The 28-year-old had three straight campaigns with a 1.15 points-per-game average or better before slipping to 0.71. As Spezza goes, so goes Heatley and you need to after him with the same eagerness that you would go after a 100-point player. Don’t overpay, because now is the time to get him at a discount, but put in the effort – give his owner a call and try and make something happen.
That means that if you can get Spezza or Heatley by giving up a player who beat them in scoring this year, then do so. I’m talking about Rick Nash, Alexander Semin, Mike Richards, Martin St.Louis, Marc Savard or even Jeff Carter – Spezza and Heater will top all of them in scoring in three of the next four seasons. The only exceptions would be any player in the Top 9 scoring this season, or Joe Thornton. As far as I’m concerned, any other player in the Top 30 (Spezza finished 31st) should be swapped for one of these guys in keeper leagues that count strictly points, not taking into account positions. It may seem crazy now, but you won’t regret it.
Playoff Dark Horses Part 2 of 2
Here are some fellows from the Western Conference worth a look-see in your upcoming playoff pool draft.
Anaheim
The Obvious: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan, Scott Niedermayer, Teemu Selanne and Chris Pronger.
Not So Obvious: Selanne has just 23 points in his last 33 games…Giguere has started just three of the last 13 games and was pulled in his last one…
Dark Horses: Andrew Ebbett has quietly put up decent numbers after winning a job on the second line. If the Ducks go to the third round, Ebbett will have 10 points…Both Ryan Whitney and James Wisniewski are scoring at a 45-point clip since joining the Ducks. The two rearguards should continue that in the postseason…Jonas Hiller will probably be the surprise No.1 goalie for Anaheim, so steer clear of Giguere.
Calgary
The Obvious: Jarome Iginla, Mike Cammalleri, Olli Jokinen, Daymond Langkow, Miikka Kiprusoff and Dion Phaneuf.
Not So Obvious: Jokinen has never played a playoff game before in the NHL and in 15 games with Calgary he has been held off the scoresheet in nine of them. Of the six games he did put up points, four of them were multi-point efforts including a five-point game…In the 12 games that he played with Jokinen as a teammate (taking his No.1 center job), Daymond Langkow has just six points.
Dark Horses: Rene Bourque is having a career season and he will be back in the lineup in time to play in a playoff game…If you like Calgary to go deep, Jamie Lundmark makes an excellent pick for the late rounds. He’ll give you a point every two games.
Chicago
The Obvious: Martin Havlat, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Kris Versteeg and Brian Campbell.
Not So Obvious: Havlat is a Band-Aid Boy. Pick him and you could get a point per game out of him. Whether it’s all the games or zero games will depend on his shoulder…In 40 games since spraining his ankle, Kane has just 25 points (or a 50-point pace)…Versteeg has just nine points in his last 25 games. Move him down your list.
Dark Horses: Andrew Ladd has 42 points in his last 66 games and has playoff experience…He’s slumping a bit now, but from the end of January through the end of March, defenseman Cam Barker had 21 points in 24 contests.
Columbus
The Obvious: Rick Nash, Kristian Huselius, Steve Mason.
Not So Obvious: Jason Williams has 28 points in 35 games with Columbus…Antoine Vermette has 11 points in 13 games with Columbus…Since returning from a bout with mononucleosis (and playing with it), Mason has watched his GAA rise from 2.09 to 2.25. His SP has dipped from .924 to .918…
Dark Horses: Derick Brassard will play in Game 6 or Game 7 of the first round if the team’s back is against the wall. He was their top scorer early in the season…RJ Umberger had 10 goals in 17 playoff games last year for Philadelphia.
Detroit
The Obvious: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Marian Hossa, Johan Franzen, Brian Rafalski and Niklas Lidstrom.
Not So Obvious: Not only does Franzen have 14 points in his last eight games, but he had 18 points in 16 playoff games last year…Hossa had 26 points in 20 playoff games last year… Jiri Hudler has just five points in his last 19 games.
Dark Horse: Daniel Cleary had just three playoff points last year, but 12 the year before. What will we see this year? Boom or bust pick…Someone to pick up in the later rounds is Ville Leino. If any top Red Wing goes down with an injury, Leino will not only fill in for him but he will also post a point per game…Defenseman Nik Kronwall has 33 points in his last 36 games. He is a huge dark horse.
Minnesota
The Obvious: Mikko Koivu, Andrew Brunette, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Nicklas Backstrom and Marian Gaborik.
Not So Obvious: Koivu is pointless in his last seven…Antti Miettinen has just seven points in his last 24 games – do not pick…Bouchard is out with a concussion…
Dark Horses: Owen Nolan has 27 points in his last 29 games. The problem is, he gets hurt often. However, the warrior should be fine for a playoff run and makes a great pick…Defenseman Marek Zidlicky has six points in his last six games and has had a couple of tastes of postseason action.
Nashville
The Obvious: JP Dumont, Jason Arnott, Shea Weber and Steve Sullivan.
Not So Obvious: Sullivan has 23 points in his last 21 games…All of Dumont, Arnott and Weber have slowed after the 20-game mark. The team started buckling down defensively at around that point…
Dark Horses: Defenseman Ryan Suter has 13 points in his last 16 contests…Pekka Rinne has started 47 of the last 58 games and has carried this team. His 28-13-4 record with seven shutouts, 2.28 GAA and .921 SP compares closely to the higher touted fellow rookie Steve Mason…Rookie Cal O’Reilly will get a point per game when Arnott is hurt, but a point every three games when Arnott plays.
San Jose
The Obvious: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Devin Setoguchi, Joe Pavelski, Milan Michalek, Dan Boyle and Evgeni Nabokov.
Not So Obvious: Despite the negativity about Thornton’s poor playoff record, he played one postseason with broken ribs (for Boston) and in 2006 he played through an injury as well. Despite that, he has 30 points in his last 35 playoff games. Still beneath his level, but not as bad as people make it out to be…
Dark Horses: Ryane Clowe had eight points in the first round last year before running into a hot goalie in the second…I don’t know how many times you want to bang your head on the wall with this guy, but Jonathan Cheechoo has potential to put up the points. Even last spring his playoff numbers were relatively decent.
St. Louis
The Obvious: Brad Boyes, David Backes, David Perron, Patrik Berglund, Keith Tkachuk and Andy McDonald.
Not So Obvious: Paul Kariya will be back probably some time in the first round. He is the best player on this team…Perron still struggles to get ice time and it may be even worse in the postseason. His current three-game pointless streak won’t help that any.
Dark Horses: TJ Oshie plays the perfect game for the postseason. His tenacity and spark will really be noticed. He also has 14 points in his last 14 contests…Defenseman Carlo Colaiacovo has 29 points in 60 games for the Blues. Finally managing to stay healthy, he will run the power play.
Vancouver
The Obvious: Roberto Luongo, Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Mats Sundin, Ryan Kesler and Pavol Demitra.
Not So Obvious: Sundin is barely on a 55-point pace. He is a playoff warrior, but still – don’t overrate…Kesler has 19 points in his last 18 games…Demitra has a very solid playoff history, with the exception of 2008 and 2004 he has always put up decent postseason numbers.
Dark Horses: Alex Burrows has been arguably the team’s best player in the last two months. He has 25 points in his last 23 games and brings all the elements of a playoff warrior…Injuries hold Sami Salo’s point totals down, but when he plays he is a lock for a point every two games…
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Eastern Conference Playoff Dark Horses Part: 2009
By Darryl Dobbs
Here are some fellows from the Eastern Conference worth a look-see in your upcoming playoff pool draft.
Boston Bruins
The Obvious: Marc Savard, David Krejci, Phil Kessel, Tim Thomas, Dennis Wideman, Zdeno Chara, Michael Ryder.
Not So Obvious: Krejci has just 13 points in his last 26 games…After just two points in his first six games as a Bruin, Recchi has six in his last four…
Dark Horses: Chuck Kobasew has eight points in his last 10 games. When healthy, he has shown to be quite productive this season; Milan Lucic has all the tools to be that playoff warrior that becomes a legend. If the B’s play 15 postseason games, Lucic could get 10 or 12 points.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Obvious: Ray Whitney, Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu, Rod Brind’Amour, Cam Ward, Sergei Samsonov.
Not So Obvious: Samsonov has 44 points in the last 58 games, which is a 62-point pace…Brind’Amour found his magic anti-aging juice around the trade deadline day. He has 16 points in his last 12 games…
Dark Horses: Matt Cullen had 26 points in 25 games prior to his lower body injury. He’ll be fine for the playoffs and could be back in that form; Joe Corvo has 10 points in his last 11 games. His surge coincides with the rest of the team finding their offensive mojo. So which came first, the chicken or the egg? Well – if both are producing, then feel free to draft the egg; Erik Cole is a dark horse only in the sense that he has 37 points this season. Don’t overrate him, however. Even on the Hurricanes, he is not the point-per-game player he looked to be before all his injuries. In 15 games he’ll get you 10 points and no more.
Florida Panthers
The Obvious: Stephen Weiss, David Booth, Cory Stillman, Nathan Horton, Jay Bouwmeester and Tomas Vokoun.
Not So Obvious: Weiss has 38 points in the last 43 contests…Booth had streaks of 16 in 11 and 11 in six. That means that in the other 49 games he had just 24 points. That screams “streaky”. So he’ll either be hot in the playoffs or he’ll be a huge bust – be careful…After 65 points in 45 games last year in junior, Michal Frolik had just six points in nine playoff contests – and was a minus-4.
Dark Horses: Goaltender Craig Anderson has started and won two games in a row. If the Panthers get into the playoffs on his back then he’ll backstop them once they get there, as well; Gregory Campbell will probably be used to shut down the opposition’s big guns, but he is a great candidate to be this year’s Sami Pahlsson-type and post eight points in 15 games.
Montreal Canadiens
The Obvious: Andrei Markov, Alexei Kovalev, Saku Koivu, Andrei Kostitsyn, Alex Tanguay.
Not So Obvious: Since the minor Kostitsyn controversy that was all over the Montreal papers, Sergei played his way back to the American League (and is pointless since his recall) and Andrei has stumbled with just two points in 14 games. Steer clear of both…You can kid yourself into believing that Jaroslav Halak is a better goaltender than Carey Price, or that he has earned the top job. Doesn’t matter, regardless of the level of truth of those statements. The Habs will be riding Price every second they can…Robert Lang’s return will hurt Tomas Plekanec, who put up horrible numbers while Lang was in the lineup but strong numbers when Lang was hurt, so watch for that.
Dark Horses: Lang may not return until the second round, or perhaps he’ll catch some first round games. Regardless, he led the team in scoring before he suffered the injury to his Achilles tendon; Since joining the Habs for his second stint, Mathieu Schneider has 13 points in 18 contests.
New Jersey Devils
The Obvious: Zach Parise, Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner, Travis Zajac, Brian Gionta and Martin Brodeur.
Not So Obvious: Brendan Shanahan has just eight points in his last 22 games. Regardless of his track record, stay away…This is a two-line team, so barring an injury to one of their top six, you won’t see points from the likes of Shanny, John Madden, Bobby Holik or Brian Rolston.
Dark Horse: Defenseman Paul Martin has 14 points in his last 17 games and is the man the Devil’s turn to run the power play.
NY Rangers
The Obvious: Nikolai Zherdev, Nik Antropov, Scott Gomez, Chris Drury, Michal Rozsival, Henrik Lundqvist.
Not So Obvious: Drury has 10 points in 12 games since Antropov joined the squad…Markus Naslund has just four points in those same 12 games. Another big name who you should steer clear of…Rozsival had just one point in 11 games prior to his lower body injury…
Dark Horses: Ryan Callahan is on fire and he plays with the hustle and spark needed in the postseason. He has 10 points in his last 11 games; Sean Avery is playing very well in his return to New York. He has nine points in 12 games.
Philadelphia Flyers
The Obvious: Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, Scott Hartnell, Daniel Briere, Kimmo Timonen.
Not So Obvious: Five times this year Joffrey Lupul has gone through stretches of at least three games without a point…Mike Knuble has just eight points in his last 17 games.
Dark Horses: Martin Biron has started 10 of the last 11 games and won seven of them. He heats up every season at the right time; Claude Giroux will be a prolific producer in the NHL and he is seeing plenty of ice time right now. It’s very feasible that he puts up numbers at least as good as what Hartnell can do.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Obvious: Chris Kunitz, Bill Guerin, Petr Sykora, Marc-Andre Fleury, Sergei Gonchar. Oh, and some guys named Sid and Evgeni.
Not So Obvious: Miroslav Satan has seven points in six AHL games. The salary cap will keep him out of the league during the regular season. It won’t be a factor for the postseason…Since the trade deadline, Sykora has one point in eight games. That’s the impact of adding Kunitz and Guerin.
Dark Horses: Kris Letang has eight points in 11 games. Clearing Ryan Whitney off the roster is really helping his numbers; Jordan Staal frequently plays 20 minutes a game and is out there during crunch time.
Washington Capitals
The Obvious: Anyone named Alex. Also Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, Brooks Laich, Viktor Kozlov Jose Theodore.
Not So Obvious: Tomas Fleischmann and Eric Fehr have shown that they can produce, but both are immersed in a horrible slump and not worth taking unless a key injury strikes the roster…Michael Nylander is not the same player anymore. Just stay away…Laich has nine points in his last 10 games. He was hot down the stretch last year as well, and he carried that into the postseason.
Dark Horses: Sergei Fedorov still produces in spurts and occasionally the coach throws him on a line with Alexander Ovechkin. If you like the Caps to go deep, he’d be a decent pick in the final round; Fleischmann has just one point in 17 games during his horrible slump. To look at it in a more positive light – he had 31 points in 50 games before that, so the potential is there.
The Columbus Dilemma
By Darryl Dobbs
One of the most confusing and frustrating NHL teams in the minds of fantasy owners is the Columbus Blue Jackets. Confusing, because they have a pile of talent in the system and you aren’t exactly certain how things will shake out for them. Frustrating because a defensive system, as well as historically questionable treatment of the young guns.
Not to say the treatment is right or wrong. But from a fantasy standpoint, it is frustrating and confusing.
The biggest reason fantasy owners temper their expectations on some of the promising youngsters is what happened to Gilbert Brule. Here is a sixth overall pick in an NHL draft, coming off impressive junior numbers and an equally impressive cup of coffee in the NHL as an 18 year old (four points in seven games). He made the team as a 19 year old, but saw such few minutes that he posted just 19 points. The following year, it was less ice time and even few points (nine).
Then there is Rick Nash. He is an NHL star by many standards and a superstar by some. He is the heart and soul of this Columbus team and after seeing him on the world stage, you can only come away believing that he has that rare ability to top 95 points some day.
So why is his career high 69?
By the end of this season, Nash should sit at around 77 points. So after six NHL seasons, he will still be searching for that first 80-point campaign. Would he have already reached that plateau on the Kings? The Coyotes? The Senators? You could name all of the other 29 NHL teams and wonder how many more (or fewer) points he could be tallying in a single campaign.
Fantasy owners are hopeful, but they are not 100 percent secure in the young Blue Jackets. Nikita Filatov, Derick Brassard and Jakub Voracek are the Big 3 prospects. All three have the potential to at least flirt with 90 points. Filatov could probably give 100 a healthy run. But on this team? Within the next five years?
The good news for Voracek owners is that he has nearly twice the points that Brule had as a 19 year old and although he is seeing just 12:39 ice time per game, it is actually closer to 14 minutes per game as the season wears on. The good news for Filatov owners is that the team is trying to take things slow with him. Perhaps if they did this with Brule, he would be 65-point player by now.
All we can say for sure is that things are very promising, especially with the way Antoine Vermette is playing since joining the team, as well as Kristian Huselius’ potential whenever his team (be it Columbus or Calgary) ices two solid scoring lines and the focus is shifted off of him. Potentially, Vermette, Nash, Huselius, Brassard, Filatov and Voracek could lead a potent offense, with R.J. Umberger as a nice supplement to that. But just temper your expectations a little – particularly on the timeline…
Meanwhile…
The Toronto line of Mikhail Grabovski, Alexei Ponikarovsky and Nikolai Kulemin has been on fire lately, combining for 21 points in the last four games. The three hail from Belarus (but born in Germany), Ukraine and Russia respectively, and there is some potential that this line could remain together (as much as line combos remain together in today’s NHL) for this year and next. Either way, all three will see improved numbers next campaign…
Colorado’s Paul Stastny is having a miserable time of things. After making a huge splash as a rookie, he has really faltered. Prior to his appendectomy in January of 2008, Stastny had 127 points in 128 career games. Since then, he has 61 points in 74 regular season and playoff games and has missed time with a knee injury, a foot injury and a broken arm. He’ll bounce back, but one wonders by how much, given the declining offense around him in Colorado.
Ten Depth Guys to Stick On Your Team
By Darryl Dobbs
These players won’t be on any roto-team’s top nine, but they will look good in that 10, 11 or 12 slot up front, or the five and six slot on the blue line. In perusing all the players that are 27 percent owned (or lower) in Yahoo!, some interesting names crop up. Here are the ones for you to consider for the stretch run…
First, the “shame on you” section. Steve Sullivan, Tim Connolly, Tom Gilbert and Andy McDonald are owned in less than a third of all Yahoo! leagues. It’s clear that the Sullivan of old is back, which makes him a top center. Twelve points and a plus-8 in his last nine games. Shame on you for not picking him up! Defenseman Gilbert has 11 points in his last 12 contests – shame on you! Connolly may get hurt a lot, but if you can easily switch him back out of your lineup there is absolutely no reason why he should not be on your roster. He has been healthy for the last 26 games, or haven’t you noticed? Shame on you! McDonald was hurt, but now he is back and hasn’t missed a beat – still a point per game. Shame on you!
Now let’s get to the 10 guys you should grab now for what they offer you down the stretch. They may be “depth” guys, but they’ll probably out-produce some of your so-called stars. A lot of players are classified as centermen – but that should not stop you from snagging them. In fact, when you are in that situation, deal one of your “big name” pivots for a good winger, and then replace him with a centerman I have listed here. You won’t lose out in that position, yet you will improve on the wing.
Without further ado:
10. Claude Giroux, Philadelphia. Now that Daniel Briere is out again, Giroux will get back to what he was doing prior to Briere’s return. Projection down the stretch: 15 points in 18 games, even, 10 PIMs, 38 shots.
9. Ryan Kesler, Vancouver. The streaky Kesler is now regularly logging over 20 minutes per contest and at worst he’ll still give you steady numbers in the other categories. Projection down the stretch: 15 points in 18 games, plus-4, 14 PIMs, 55 shots.
8. Sean Bergenheim, N.Y. Islanders. Lots of opportunity on the Island for him now and he has always had the ability in multitude of categories. Projection down the stretch: 15 points in 17 games, even, 18 PIMs, 56 shots.
7. Patrice Bergeron, Boston. Excuse him for taking a few months to get rolling, after missing most of last season. But the Bergeron of old is back with nine points in last 10 games. Projection down the stretch: 15 points in 16 games, plus-5, 4 PIMs, 49 shots.
6. Maxim Afinogenov, Buffalo. He has two points in two games since the deadline and is back to his old self. Granted, he could be back in the doghouse, but if not you know what he is capable of. Projection down the stretch: 14 points in 17 games, minus-1, 10 PIMs, 51 shots.
5. Stephen Weiss, Florida. He has 40 points in his last 46 games. The 25-year-old has finally arrived. Projection down the stretch: 16 points in his last 16 games, plus-5, 8 PIMs, 47 shots.
4. Antoine Vermette, Columbus. A new team and new possibilities. Vermette was turning his season around, but now he is entrenched in the top six. Projection down the stretch: 16 points in 16 games, plus-3, 12 PIMs, 49 shots.
3. Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay. Everyone was grabbing this guy in September when they shouldn’t have. Nobody is grabbing him now, when they should. The future star has 10 points in his last 10 games and seeing first-line ice time. Projection down the stretch: 17 points in 16 games, minus-1, 8 PIMs, 47 shots.
2. Tuomo Ruutu, Carolina. It’s hard to imagine that he is in just 15% of all Yahoo! pools, with 15 points in his last 14 games and coming off a five-point game. His PIMs are low because Carolina has given up the least power-plays, so it’s a team system. Still, he puts up his share. Projection down the stretch: 14 points in 15 games, plus-2, 14 PIMs and 58 shots.
1. Steve Ott, Dallas. Looks like a lot of Yahoo! managers still haven’t heard the latest – Steve Ott is a fantasy stud. He has 24 points in his last 23 games, with 45 PIMs and is a plus-9 in that span. Seriously – trade your “Joe Thornton” type of player right now for a Daniel Alfredsson type of winger and pick up Ott. You will win out in both positions. Projection down the stretch: 17 points in 17 games, plus-4, 40 PIMs and 38 shots.
Honorable mentions: Matt Lombardi, Phoenix; Ales Kotalik, Edmonton; Eric Fehr, Washington, Michal Frolik, Florida; R.J. Umberger, Columbus; Matt Stajan, Toronto, Andrew Ebbett, Anaheim.
Change of Scenery – Trade Deadline Pt. 2 of 2
By Darryl Dobbs
Last week, we took at a look at the top trade candidates in the East and their fantasy impact. This week, let’s take a look at the Western Conference – where teams five through 15 are closer than I’ve ever seen them.
In fantasy hockey, a player being moved to a new NHL team is often good news for the fantasy owner. A fresh start or a likely shot as a star’s linemate – or both – is just what the doctor ordered for a slumping player.
Here are the most interesting players in the West who could be moved March 4, and what to expect from them if they are…
Niklas Backstrom, Minnesota – Despite solid statistics, young backup Josh Harding has a record of just 2-7-1. Since that record doesn’t tell the whole story, the Wild consider the youngster to have the ability to get in some starts down the stretch. Backstrom is a UFA this summer, so the team may move him to improve their future, while at the same time hope Harding keeps them in contention. Still, it is a million dollar industry and not all teams would take a chance on extra playoff revenue like that. On a new team, Backstrom would play in a weaker system, so his stats will go the wrong way. Odds of being dealt: 25%.
Marc-Andre Bergeron, Minnesota – Another Wild candidate to be moved, Bergeron could actually go regardless of whether they buy or sell – simply because of the numbers game. Kurtis Foster is back now and the team already has offensive pop from the blueline in Brent Burns and Marek Zidlicky. Bergeron’s value will go up or down depending on the team he ends up on. You saw his role in Anaheim last year, and it wasn’t pretty. But a team like Buffalo could really use a QB with his skill. Odds of being dealt: 60%.
Chicago Blackhawks’ prospects – This team has a ton of really great prospects in the pipeline and they already have a young, skilled and deep NHL roster. They don’t seem to want to accommodate Petri Kontiola’s trade demands – yet – but someone will move for a rental. Jack Skille is another candidate to move. They also have three promising goaltenders in the system – Corey Crawford, Antti Niemi and Josh Unice. Odds of one being dealt: 95%.
Erik Cole, Edmonton – His contract is running out and a lot of teams could use a hard-hitting second-line winger. Don’t point to his playoff and Stanley Cup experience, because – come on – he played two games. But still, he would bring the Oilers a decent return and moving him wouldn’t exactly take them out of contention. On a deep, elite team his value will drop as he will man the third line. On a borderline playoff team, he could see a nice pop if placed on the first line. Odds of being dealt: 50%
Marian Gaborik, Minnesota – His contract is up and he is not thrilled with Minnesota’s system. The Wild are likely to move him for some pipeline replenishment. When healthy, he is one of the greats of the game and it is scary to see how he would do on a team that opens it up. Key words – “when healthy”. Odds of being dealt: 80%
Olli Jokinen, Phoenix – Typically when teams “sell” at the deadline, they move out expensive vets and bring in prospects and young NHLers. So what happens when a team already has an abundance of those? For that reason, you may not see Jokinen or Ed Jovanovski moved. If you do, Jokinen can’t do any worse. A change of scenery would be a plus, no question. Odds of being dealt: 30%
Nikolai Khabibulin, Chicago – The Blackhawks have two No.1 goaltenders and three pretty good prospect goaltenders. Rather than invest so much money in goaltending, the thinking is that the ‘Hawks will deal Khabibulin. Don’t be too sure on that – you can’t buy this kind of insurance. If move, though, it can only help owners to have him play every game instead of split time. Odds of being dealt: 40%.
Jordan Leopold, Colorado – The Avs are fading fast, Leopold is finally healthy and his contract is up this year. Throw in the fact that the market for puck-moving defenders is a strong one, and he’s as good as gone. Leopold will thrive as a No.2 PP guy alongside an elite No.1. If he has a guy like Bryan McCabe at the other end of the blue line, that is the type of situation that would give him fantasy value. Odds of being dealt: 65%.
Scott Niedermayer, Anaheim – The Ducks are in a dogfight and they will lose the dogfight if they trade one or both of their big guns on the back end. However, rumors of him being traded to New Jersey won’t die. The Devils are a different team then when he was last there, so his fantasy value will make a sideways move if he goes there. Odds of being dealt: 45%.
Chris Pronger, Anaheim – He still has another year on his contract, but if the return is right, the Ducks could move him. The arrival of Ryan Whitney makes this just a little more likely. Similar to Niedermayer, on any other team Pronger holds the same high value. Only one of Nieds or Pronger will be dealt, if at all. Odds of being dealt: 40%.
Ryan Smyth, Colorado – Teams value his leadership and scoring punch, but because he is locked in for several more years yet the Avs will wait for the right offer. On a weak team, his value rises. On a strong team it drops. He was a point-a-game player with Paul Stastny out of the lineup, but barely a 50-point guy when he was in the lineup. Odds of being dealt: 50%.
Steve Sullivan, Nashville – His contract is up and he is starting to show some of his old form. The back is so far so good, too. The Preds need a playoff spot, so they probably won’t sell. But if they do, he is a great candidate to go. On a good team, he’ll be buried, but on a similar team he’ll be every bit as good as he is on the Preds and probably even better under a looser system. Odds of being dealt: 15%.
Keith Tkachuk, St. Louis – The Blues have already pulled off this trick and they’ll do it again. Maybe we’ll even see Tkachuk just head back there in the summer. A trade will probably hurt his value, because his situation in St. Louis is a good one. Odds of being dealt: 80%.
DobberHockey.com will have the fantasy impact of every trade within minutes of it being announced on March 4. It is a “must stop” for all fantasy owners who have their own trade deadlines to worry about.
Change of Scenery – Trade Deadline Pt. 1 of 2
In fantasy hockey, a player being moved to a new NHL team is often good news for the fantasy owner. A fresh start or a likely shot as a star’s linemate – or both – is just what the doctor ordered for a slumping player. In the Western Conference, as of Saturday, eight points separated fourth and fifth…yet only nine points separated fifth and 15th. Since it’s tough to nail down which teams will be buyers and which teams will be sellers in the West, we’ll take a look at the Eastern Conference first.
Here are the most interesting players in the East who could be moved March 4, and what to expect from them if they are…
Nik Antropov, Toronto – He has never played more than 72 games in a season, but is on pace for 82. His production is on pace for 62, but as a second-line player on any good team he could produce 70. A lot of teams could use second line depth, such as Florida, who have recent trade ties with the Leafs, and Vancouver and Anaheim, who have ties to Brian Burke. Odds of being dealt: 95%.
Jay Bouwmeester, Florida – Possibly the best player available at the deadline, JBo is currently a member of a playoff team. Will Florida deal him? If not, they risk losing him for nothing. The price will be high – a team in the playoffs will not be eager to sell. A new team is a definite plus for his production – his best years are still ahead of him. Odds of being dealt: 60%.
Bill Guerin, NY Islanders – He has slowed down to a 50-point player, but teams will be interested in his experience and they would want his scoring touch for their third line. On a new team, his production would slip a little. Odds of being dealt: 70%.
Tomas Kaberle, Toronto – He could go to any one of 10 teams on his list that he apparently submitted to GM Brian Burke. However, Burke thinks that he won’t move him, but that could just be posturing. His 44 points are far below where he would be on another team. Odds of being dealt: 45%.
Alexei Kovalev, Montreal – The Habs may have had enough of his moodiness, but after his warm reception and excellent production Saturday, things could change. Either that or he just drove his price up. Kovalev could go up or down, depending on which team he ends up on. He normally doesn’t perform well in the spotlight, but as a secondary character on a strong cast he is a point per game, easily. Odds of being dealt: 45%
Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay – I don’t think he’ll move and the rumors have died off, but I would be remiss not to mention one of the best players in the game. If Lecavalier goes, it will probably be to Montreal. It doesn’t matter where, really – he’ll put up the numbers anywhere. Odds of being dealt: 10%
Kari Lehtonen, Atlanta – TSN is reporting interest from the Flyers. Lehtonen is a talented goalie who will put up great numbers with a good team in front of him. However, a change of scenery won’t help his fragility any – unless he goes to a high altitude state like Colorado where the air density could help him heal quicker. Okay, that was a joke – I have no idea if that is true so MD’s please don’t send me emails! The point is, his numbers will improve, but his games played will not. Odds of being dealt: 25%.
Michal Nylander, Washington – He makes $5.5 million next season and $3 million the season after. That makes his cap his just over $2 million per year over the next four years if a team bought him out this summer. With that in mind, a team could take a chance on him and know that if they had to resort to a buyout the cost would not be too terrible. However, the Caps would have to bring in salary in return. Dustin Byfuglien from the Blackhawks ($3 million per year) would fit that bill. Odds of being dealt: 35%.
Martin St. Louis, Tampa Bay – It may make more sense for the Penguins to carry the $5.25 cap hit of a star winger like St. Louis as opposed to the $4 million cap hit of Ryan Whitney. It also would make sense the Lightning to free up that $1.25 in salary and add a top rearguard. Obviously, St. Louis going to the Penguins would be gold for his owners. On any other team, it would probably help as well. Odds of being dealt: 50%.
James van Riemsdyk, Philadelphia – One of the best prospects outside of the NHL is available because the Flyers have a great team locked up for the long term and Claude Giroux and Andreas Nodl ready to get top six ice time on 20 other NHL teams. TSN thinks the Flyers could use JVR to get Lehtonen. He will be a star no matter what team he plays for, but for a weak time like Atlanta he could give you the numbers much sooner. Odds of being dealt: 20%.
Antoine Vermette, Ottawa – The Sens would have loved to dish Vermette to another team two months ago, but he was slumping so badly that no team wanted to give up anything for him. Now that he has 21 points in his last 28 games he will garner interest once again. However, the team’s acquisition of Mike Comrie and Chris Campoli indicates that they are not lying down just yet. But they probably will by March 4. Odds of being dealt: 35%.
Ryan Whitney, Pittsburgh – The Pens love what they have seen from Kris Letang and Alex Goligoski. Sergei Gonchar has another year on his contract. They need cap room due to the signings of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal and Marc-Andre Fleury. Whitney is the most expendable and he could bring in a top winger in return. He is a potential 75-point player in Pittsburgh, but a potential 60-point player on another team. Odds of being dealt: 40%.
DobberHockey.com will have the fantasy impact of every trade within minutes of it being announced on March 4. It is a “must stop” for all fantasy owners who have their own trade deadlines to worry about.
